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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:09 am

As testing increases in the USA (and with the increase availability of test kits, locations, and labs certified to run the test), we should see a huge increase in cases of the virus detected in the USA for the next week or so. The question for me is when will the # of new cases begin to decline, so that we can start getting back to normal.

We will then see how real is the this crises and how bad will it be. It is sounding MORE real to me and the news gets worse everyday. It is not the end of the world, but it is a crises.

The main concern, it seems to me, is the spread of the virus could easily overwhelm our health system: hospitals (in most cases) and doctor/care places; some go to what is called in the USA "Urgent Care" places. Of course, the other main concerns are the 1) slowdown in the economy as restrictions go up everywhere and 2) the deaths caused by the virus. It is said elsewhere, but most of the deaths that I am aware of are among the elderly and/or those with underlying respiratory health issues.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:14 am

Chinese billionaire Jack Ma is stepping up to help the U.S.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-jack-ma-to-donate-masks-testing-kits-to-us-20200313-ctfsgq2g4fcvfe77p2q2dkrpnu-story.html?outputType=amp
Billionaire Jack Ma, China’s richest man and founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, announced Friday that he is lending a hand to the United States by donating 500,000 coronavirus testing kits and one million masks.

His namesake charity announced the donation Friday on Twitter, pledging to “join hands with Americans in these difficult times.”

“Drawing from my own country’s experience, speedy and accurate testing and accurate personal protective equipment for medical professionals are most effective in preventing the spread of the virus,” the Jack Ma Foundation said in a statement. “We hope that our donation can help Americans fight against the pandemic!”

The U.S. government hopes to ramp up testing after failing to produce enough test kits to handle the number of people experiencing symptoms in this country.

As of Thursday, fewer than 14,000 specimens had been tested since January, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In South Korea, meanwhile, nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day.

The majority of Americans are still not allowed to be tested because of strict federal guidelines prioritizing elderly people and those with underlying medical conditions.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mrswdk on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:42 am

Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:58 am

Our medical infrastructure is fine; the biggest problem is how we pay for it, imo. There are problems with American health system; looking at social medical care (paid via the government, via taxes) may be the or one answer.


mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:59 am

mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:23 am

I think mrswdk is really a troll. He/she will post anything that 1) promotes China and 2) denigrates the West, especially the U.K. and the USA. What you see here is jus another such post of ALL that.

Occasionally I will rebut those comments; I usually ignore most of them. Once in a rare time, I will agree and will say so.

jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.
Last edited by jusplay4fun on Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mrswdk on Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:50 am

jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.


>offers humanitarian support to a struggling region
>accused of playing politics

I was literally responding to a post that talks about how aid has been given to the US Government because it doesn't have the capacity/capabilities to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. Talk about biting the hand that feeds.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:27 pm

jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.


It's not a joke. Medical bills are already the #1 cause of bankruptcy in the U.S. There will be a lot more of them after this epidemic. It's absolutely shocking that in a country which produces more wealth than any other, so many people have to fear the idea of getting sick, not because of the sickness itself, but because of the financial ruin that will follow.

You shouldn't be surprised by sarcastic comments from countries that have far less money, but somehow manage to take care of all their people.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:37 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.


It's not a joke. Medical bills are already the #1 cause of bankruptcy in the U.S. There will be a lot more of them after this epidemic. It's absolutely shocking that in a country which produces more wealth than any other, so many people have to fear the idea of getting sick, not because of the sickness itself, but because of the financial ruin that will follow.

You shouldn't be surprised by sarcastic comments from countries that have far less money, but somehow manage to take care of all their people.


OK... different subject...but half the reason our medical bills are so high is because we subsidize all the Research and Decelopment.

We subsidize it by paying the price actually set by the companies that do the research.

Other countries refuse to pay and force corporations to sell for lower prices that cover the costs of manufacturing drugs and medical equipment but don’t cover R&D expenses. So... we could do the same... but them development funding would dry up.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:47 pm

jimboston wrote:
Dukasaur wrote:
jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


:roll: :roll: :roll:


You what I hate? Is when someone takes a global humanitarian crisis and tries to make it political, and thinks they’re witty while doing it.


It's not a joke. Medical bills are already the #1 cause of bankruptcy in the U.S. There will be a lot more of them after this epidemic. It's absolutely shocking that in a country which produces more wealth than any other, so many people have to fear the idea of getting sick, not because of the sickness itself, but because of the financial ruin that will follow.

You shouldn't be surprised by sarcastic comments from countries that have far less money, but somehow manage to take care of all their people.


OK... different subject...but half the reason our medical bills are so high is because we subsidize all the Research and Decelopment.

We subsidize it by paying the price actually set by the companies that do the research.

Other countries refuse to pay and force corporations to sell for lower prices that cover the costs of manufacturing drugs and medical equipment but don’t cover R&D expenses. So... we could do the same... but them development funding would dry up.

Big Pharma Has Higher Profit Margins Than Any Other Industry
$3 billion: that’s how much GlaxoSmithKline agreed to pay the U.S. Department of Justice in 2012 to settle civil and criminal charges related to its misbranding of the drugs Paxil and Wellbutrin and its failure to disclose safety information about the diabetes drug Avandia.

Although the $3 billion fine was the largest fine ever levied against a drug company, it was a mere drop in the bucket for GSK, accounting for less than 11% of its associated revenue for the year, according to the Economist. And during the years that Glaxo illegally marketed antidepressants to kids under 18, the company reportedly raked in $27.5 billion, says the Christian Science Monitor.

The GSK settlement was large, but hardly unusual. As ProPublica reports, over the last few years alone pharmaceutical companies have paid the Justice Department more than $13 billion to settle allegations of illegal marketing practices. Many of these same companies have also paid millions and billions of dollars to settle lawsuits brought by patients who were injured and killed by drugs that include the painkiller Vioxx, which led to a $4.85 billion settlement with the drugmaker Merck in 2010.

To most companies, such sums would prove to be disastrous, if not fatal. To Big Pharma, they’re the cost of doing business.

Whether or not that business is good for patients or even legal are certainly debatable. But what’s beyond debate is that illegitimate practices, from misbranding to illegal promotion to doctor bribes to preventing lower-cost generics from making it to market, are highly profitable for the pharmaceutical industry.

According to BBC News, in 2013 pharmaceutical companies enjoyed higher average profit margins than carmakers, oil and gas companies and media companies. Only banks had a profit margin comparable to Big Pharma, but Pfizer’s 42% profit margin blew every other company out of the water, prompting even a member of its own industry to say, “I wouldn’t be able to justify [those types of margins].”

In 2013, five pharmaceutical companies exceeded 20% profit margins: Pfizer, Hoffman-LaRoche, AbbVie, GSK and Eli Lilly.

These companies argue that the high costs of their drugs are due to the amounts they pay for research and development and the relatively short patent life (the time before generic versions of the same drugs can be sold) of their products, but many companies spend twice as much on marketing as they do on R&D, while development costs of a blockbuster drug can easily be recouped by a few months of strong sales.

None of this is to say that drug companies don’t make important medicines that improve wellbeing and save lives. But it’s difficult for these companies to argue that they put patients ahead of profits.

Consider the cost of cancer drugs, which can cost $100,000 or more for just a single year of treatment. As Dr. Brian Druker of the Knight Cancer Institute said, “If you are making $3bn a year on [cancer drug] Gleevec, could you get by with $2bn? When do you cross the line from essential profits to profiteering?”
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:21 am

The profits of the pharmaceutical companies are outrageous. Now I will sound (to some) like the Real Bernie Sanders. We need to get control of 1) drug prices and 2) exorbitant health costs. We pay too much for pharmaceutical. PERIOD. The US citizens pay for research on these drugs for the ENTIRE world. The ABSOLUTE GREED by some executives and owners is appalling and so blatant.

As far as other health care costs, Duk is correct on how much we in the US spend there too. That solution is not so easy, but the evidence (for me) is clear that we pay way TOO MUCH for ALL health care in the USA.

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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mrswdk on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:33 am

The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jonesthecurl on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:27 am

mrswdk wrote:The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.


I seldom say or think this about your comments, but that is spot-on.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:30 am

Dukasaur wrote: That was the night I broke into St. Mike's Cathedral and shat on the Archibishop's desk
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mrswdk on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:37 am

jonesthecurl wrote:
mrswdk wrote:The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.


I seldom say or think this about your comments, but that is spot-on.


If I had a penny for every time someone grudgingly acknowledged my bottomless wisdom, I'd buy premium.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby mrswdk on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:37 am

On another note, I am loving how horribly the OP and premise of this thread has aged.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jonesthecurl on Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:29 pm

mrswdk wrote:
jonesthecurl wrote:
mrswdk wrote:The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.


I seldom say or think this about your comments, but that is spot-on.


If I had a penny for every time someone grudgingly acknowledged my bottomless wisdom, I'd buy premium.


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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jimboston on Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:25 pm

Dukasaur wrote:while development costs of a blockbuster drug can easily be recouped by a few months of strong sales.[/b]


Yes. What about all the R&D that doesn’t result in a “blockbuster drug”. Most does, most R&D is dead end.

I know a guy who’s been working on glaucoma cure/treatment for 10 years...he leads the team of several highly paid scientists. They’ve learned a lot, but in 10 years have not yet produced a product that has generated one penny of revenue.

I’m not saying these complies don’t make money... the do.

I’m simply pointing out one reason... out of many.. that our medical costs in the US are higher than elsewhere.
We pay for the R&D.

Our system is flawed in many ways... many not related to government regulations, many of them directly impacted by regulations...

*Too many lawsuits / too much fear of lawsuits... this drives bad decision making in many ways.
*Under utilized equipment sitting idle... in some places not enough equipment in other places too much.
*Focus on treatment instead of prevention.
*Bad health of the public... obesity, lack of exercise, etc... driving up costs for all.

I’m sure if I thought about it I could give better examples... I’m sure you could find some too.

In relation to this thread... the idea that other countries criticize us when they benefit as we fund R&D in annoying.
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jimboston on Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:32 pm

mrswdk wrote:The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.


This is definitely true and part of the problem.

Tragedy of the Commons I think is the term that encapsulates this idea...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tr ... ommons.asp


A more simple example i’ve heard... when sharing a bill at a restaurant.

If you know you’re each getting an individual bill then you may factor the cost of the meal/drink in your decision. However if it’s agreed that all parties will just divide the bill evenly, regardless of what or how much you consume, then the economic incentive is to make sure you get your “fair share” by ordering the more expensive entree and getting that second drink. Ultimately everyone consumes more than they wanted and everyone pays more too. Now at dinner with friends there are social pressures that impede decision making... so it’s not solely based on pure economics... but you all get the point (except for WMW).
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:11 pm

mrswdk has over-simplified the problem of factors affecting US Health Care costs. Ignored are:

1) the use of HSA in the USA, Health Savings Account, that Duk and I discussed some 2.5 years or so ago, in another thread. So cost to the insured person is now a bigger factor.

2) the cost of possible litigation (law suits) cause doctors to order tests that may be medically unnecessary, but is intended to protect the doctor from being sued. That is a complicating factor for health care.

3) There are several "Big Players" in the US Health Care:
a) Doctors; b) hospitals, especially for profit; c) private insurance companies; d) Big Pharmacy companies, especially pharmaceuticals who manufacture and sell the actual drugs to retail outlets. (I am sure the local drug stores, mostly national chains of CVS, Rite-Aid, and Wal-Greens, plus Wal-Mart and Target stores, make a signficant profit, too.)

ALL these groups make BIG Dollars on Health Care.


jimboston wrote:
mrswdk wrote:The main issue with the US system is that the only people with the power to reduce the cost of healthcare are people whose incentives are to keep costs high. Ultimately it's the healthcare providers who decide what care a patient gets and what drugs to give them, and those providers are giving their bill to the insurance company, who they know will pay, so a lot just prescribe all sorts of unnecessary treatments (because they might as well, and doing so will maximise their income). And in a system like that it doesn't really matter if the drug company charges $40 for a course of antibiotics, or $60, or $80; all the people deciding whether or not to buy those antibiotics (including the patients) feel like they're buying the drugs with someone else's money (the insurance company's) so cost isn't really a factor in their choice of drug.

The ultimate outcome of that is high insurance bills for patients, because that's the only way the insurance companies can cover the costs of all the unnecessary and/or expensive care they're being billed for. The only people with any incentive to care are patients, but their only choice is to keep paying those insurance premiums because a) the cost of paying for their own care out-of-pocket is now so high that they can't afford to and b) they have no lobbying power with the government.


This is definitely true and part of the problem.

Tragedy of the Commons I think is the term that encapsulates this idea...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tr ... ommons.asp


A more simple example i’ve heard... when sharing a bill at a restaurant.

If you know you’re each getting an individual bill then you may factor the cost of the meal/drink in your decision. However if it’s agreed that all parties will just divide the bill evenly, regardless of what or how much you consume, then the economic incentive is to make sure you get your “fair share” by ordering the more expensive entree and getting that second drink. Ultimately everyone consumes more than they wanted and everyone pays more too. Now at dinner with friends there are social pressures that impede decision making... so it’s not solely based on pure economics... but you all get the point (except for WMW).
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby ganguscalm on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 pm

I live with in 350 miles of 3 major population centers in the USA , Los Angles , Phoenix and Las Vegas . I go into voluntary quarantine at the end of the week . I'm supplied for 2 months . I had most all supplies already on hand so I went to town for perishables and found that I couldn't buy a stick of butter or even a potato . there is nothing in the stores ... anywhere . I will be fine but I worry about my neighbors and friends that are not prepared . :cry:
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby saxitoxin on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:17 pm

I don't know what everyone is bitching about, I literally live at Ground Zero USA and everything is business as usual. I just got back from the Post Office where I mailed a package, the stores are all fully stocked with the exception of paper products and sanitizer, there's no looting or pillaging, I'm planning on going hiking this weekend. I know someone who got the China Virus and they recovered in five days and said it was no worse than the flu.

The impact of this has largely been whipped-up by the leftist media who are trying to destabilize the president, yet again, after their previous attempts with Russiagate and Ukrainegate failed. :roll: Now they're trying to collapse the entire economic system to achieve their objectives. President Trump should use his emergency powers to take control of media outlets attempting to cash-in on coronavirus.

mrswdk wrote:Perhaps after this some of the world's more developed regions, like Europe and East Asia, can offer the US support and aid in developing its medical infrastructure?


Europe and East Asia seem like the last places in the world from which we'd want to take lessons.

Cases per 1 million people-

1. Italy: 521
2. Switzerland: 316
3. Norway: 271
4. Spain: 252

5. Iran: 192
6. Estonia: 169
7. Denmark: 168
8. South Korea: 162

9. Qatar: 153
10. Austria: 147
11. Bahrain: 141
12. Slovenia: 132
13. France: 118
14. Sweden: 118
37. UK: 29

39. USA: 20

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby saxitoxin on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:32 pm

February 25
World Health Organization: "Don't restrict movement, it's not effective!"
EU: "We trust the institutions of the liberal international order, such as WHO. We are following their advice and keeping our borders open and porous! Institutions are our friends! No hysterics, no populism, only reason and humanism!"
USA: "Suck a dick, WHO. We are banning entry from China ASAP."

March 16
EU: 308 cases per 1 million people
USA: 20 cases per 1 million people

March 17
EU: "Errr ... okay, on second thought, we are closing all our borders after all."

:lol: :lol: :lol: =D> =D> =D>

AS THE WORLD BURNS, AMERICA REMAINS GREAT!
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Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=241668&start=200#p5349880
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby jusplay4fun on Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:46 pm

we now have 3 threads on the COVID-19 (coronavirus). I suggest they be grouped together into one. The poll is an attempt by one of the usual trolls to sow bad feelings.

This virus reminds me in many ways of the flu of 1918:

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic. While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.


source: cdc
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Re: coronavirus - is this real or hype?

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:33 pm

jusplay4fun wrote:we now have 3 threads on the COVID-19 (coronavirus). I suggest they be grouped together into one.

It's a big topic. Many news stations run dozens of stories a day, all covid related in one way or another.
jusplay4fun wrote: The poll is an attempt by one of the usual trolls to sow bad feelings.

Foe button still works. Or, you can just fight fire with fire, like this...

saxitoxin wrote:March 16
EU: 308 cases per 1 million people
USA: 20 cases per 1 million people

Actually, the U.S. has no idea how many cases it has. It could be 20 cases per million, or it could be 2,000 per million. Since testing has been so sporadic, nobody really knows.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/14/815727231/opinion-early-coronavirus-testing-failures-will-cost-lives
Now cases with no recent travel and no known contacts are emerging everywhere. Earlier this week, public health experts from Johns Hopkins confirmed that the virus is likely spreading undetected in the community. Put another way, this thing is probably out of the barn.

If that's the case, then why are we still facing such strict limitations on who we can test? There isn't a clear answer, but it seems to be a function of a woefully inadequate supply of test kits. In other words, what few tests we do have are being rationed for the people who need them most, like those requiring hospital admission. While South Korea has run nearly 250,000 tests and has capacity to test 10,000 people per day, current estimates suggest the United States has performed only about 19,000 tests. Here's another way to express just how far behind we are in terms of testing — as of March 11, the United States had performed only 23 tests per million people, while the U.K had performed 347 per million, Italy 826 per million, and South Korea 3,692 per million, according to an analysis by multiple media outlets and the COVID Tracking Project.

Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told NPR on Thursday that the United States' response has been "much, much worse than almost any other country that's been affected." He reached for words like "stunning," "fiasco" and "mind-blowing" to describe the situation.

This leads to a second, much more important question — how were we so staggeringly unprepared to test for this virus? A number of hiccups have contributed. First, many test kits released by the CDC on Feb. 4 were defective. Designing and manufacturing these tests is challenging, and sometimes problems arise. There have been reports that early Chinese tests may have had a false negative rate as high as 50%. But rather than encourage university labs and private companies to help with test development, the FDA withheld permission for such work until Feb. 29. Contrast this with the response in South Korea, where a private biotechnology company began developing a test on Jan. 16, had a working version ready by Feb. 5t and had government approval for use one week later. That company is manufacturing enough kits to test a million people per week.

Private companies and academic labs are now developing their own tests. The Cleveland Clinic recently announced it had developed a rapid test for the virus. But concerns are mounting about a shortage of critical materials needed to run these tests.

The total failure to ensure that adequate testing would be available will likely prove to be the single most important factor in why the United States has been unable to contain the outbreak. As previously reported by NPR, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea all deployed an aggressive testing strategy very early on. This allowed them to find the first few cases and isolate them, preventing unchecked community spread. Because our government and public health authorities were unprepared, we have missed that precious opportunity in the United States, and it is going to cost people their lives.
“‎Life is a shipwreck, but we must not forget to sing in the lifeboats.”
― Voltaire
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