The people of Taiwan do not wish to be independent

[mrswdk]

From the Taiwanese news source, Taipei Times:

Support for Taiwanese independence, identity: think tank poll

A poll conducted by the Taiwan Braintrust shows that nearly 90 percent of the population would identify themselves as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese” if they were to choose between the two — and the percentage is even higher among those aged from 20 to 40.

With 1,079 valid samples from 20 cities and counties, the results show that if given the option of being “Taiwanese” or “Chinese,” 89.5 percent of respondents said they would identify themselves as Taiwanese, while just 6 percent said they consider themselves Chinese.

As for the nation’s future, 31.2 percent of respondents said they support independence for Taiwan, while 56.2 percent would prefer to maintain the “status quo” and 7.9 percent support unification with China.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ ... 2003610873

[mrswdk]

So there we have it: the people of Taiwan have a strong Taiwanese identity, but overwhelmingly (two-thirds) support Taiwan's status as a province of China ^0^

Something for the foreign agitators and instigators to take note of.

[Bernie Sanders]

Nice story bro

[waauw]

So there we have it: the people of Taiwan have a strong Taiwanese identity, but overwhelmingly (two-thirds) support Taiwan's status as a province of China ^0^

Something for the foreign agitators and instigators to take note of.

Nothing new, but they still don't want to be governed by the current government in Beijing.

[mrswdk]

So there we have it: the people of Taiwan have a strong Taiwanese identity, but overwhelmingly (two-thirds) support Taiwan's status as a province of China ^0^

Something for the foreign agitators and instigators to take note of.

Nothing new, but they still don't want to be governed by the current government in Beijing.

Well they clearly do, given the striking lack of interest they have shown for splitting from the rest of China in either opinion polls or local elections. A vote for the status quo or for re-unification is a vote to remain part of a nation which has the CCP at its head.

[rishaed]

I think its something like this:

They definetely don't want to be ruled by the CCP, as seen by the Sunflower Movement.

[mrswdk]

They definetely don't want to be ruled by the CCP, as seen by the Sunflower Movement.

By that logic America wants Trump as its president, as seen by Trump's large rallies.

I'm going to trust the opinion polls and island-wide elections cited earlier in this thread over your photos of a few students waving banners.

[rishaed]

They definetely don't want to be ruled by the CCP, as seen by the Sunflower Movement.

By that logic America wants Trump as its president, as seen by Trump's large rallies.

I'm going to trust the opinion polls and island-wide elections cited earlier in this thread over your photos of a few students waving banners.

IF you're going to trust the island wide elections then you also have to trust the fact that the KMT lost against the more anti-mainland CCP china party.
Please keep shooting yourself in the foot more.

[mrswdk]

They definetely don't want to be ruled by the CCP, as seen by the Sunflower Movement.

By that logic America wants Trump as its president, as seen by Trump's large rallies.

I'm going to trust the opinion polls and island-wide elections cited earlier in this thread over your photos of a few students waving banners.

IF you're going to trust the island wide elections then you also have to trust the fact that the KMT lost against the more anti-mainland CCP china party.
Please keep shooting yourself in the foot more.

The 'anti-mainland party' you speak of, which people in Taiwan and elsewhere sometimes refer to as the DPP, has a policy of maintaining the status quo and preserving the progress made by previous Taiwan administrations when it comes to cross-strait relations. Given that the previous KMT administration actively worked to warm and deepen ties between Taiwan and the mainland, that means the current government's policy is to preserve that deepening of ties with the mainland.

Are you done embarrassing yourself by spouting Anglo-Japanese propaganda, or do you wish to put your foot even further into your mouth?

[GabonX]

So there we have it: the people of Taiwan have a strong Taiwanese identity, but overwhelmingly (two-thirds) support Taiwan's status as a province of China ^0^

Something for the foreign agitators and instigators to take note of.

That's not the only conclusion one could make from those numbers. It seems likely that many of the people who both identify as Taiwanese, and wish to maintain the status quo, would support an independant Taiwan if not for the threat of coercive military action from China...

If given a true choice to become independent without the threat of China's boot over their heads, more people would likely back Taiwanese nationalism. Whatever the case, more data needs to be taken before we can come to either conclusion.

[riskllama]

who owns the Taipei times?

[mrswdk]

who owns the Taipei times?

Good question!

The Taipei Times is headquartered in Taipei/Taibei and owned by the Liberty Times Group, a Taiwanese media corporation.

[notyou2]

So there we have it: the people of Taiwan have a strong Taiwanese identity, but overwhelmingly (two-thirds) support Taiwan's status as a province of China ^0^

Something for the foreign agitators and instigators to take note of.

Mrs, please take note of the portion that I enlarged and emboldened.

[Metsfanmax]

From the Taiwanese news source, Taipei Times:

Support for Taiwanese independence, identity: think tank poll

A poll conducted by the Taiwan Braintrust shows that nearly 90 percent of the population would identify themselves as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese” if they were to choose between the two — and the percentage is even higher among those aged from 20 to 40.

With 1,079 valid samples from 20 cities and counties, the results show that if given the option of being “Taiwanese” or “Chinese,” 89.5 percent of respondents said they would identify themselves as Taiwanese, while just 6 percent said they consider themselves Chinese.

As for the nation’s future, 31.2 percent of respondents said they support independence for Taiwan, while 56.2 percent would prefer to maintain the “status quo” and 7.9 percent support unification with China.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ ... 2003610873

Nice job forgetting to quote the very next paragraph:

However, when given “independence” and “unification” as the only options, 68.9 percent said they would support independence, while 17.1 percent would support unification with China.

[Symmetry]

It's interesting, isn't it. Many Taiwanese feel culturally similar to China, but really don't like the Chinese government. Similar story in Hong Kong. It makes you wonder how Chinese people would poll if the government didn't forbid them from thinking otherwise.

[macbone]

You read it wrong, M. Only 7.9% want to be a province of China. The majority want to continue as the Republic of China, apparently. =)

It's interesting to see the rise of localism in Hong Kong. There's no way that Hong Kong can cut itself off from China in the way that Taiwan has, but there are some people here that still think that's possible.

HONG KONG: Localist or nativist politics is expected to play a bigger role in Hong Kong in 2016. Beijing is worried that localism is a becoming a threat to its sovereignty, but some in Hong Kong think that it can be a force for good.

Groups such as Hongkonger Front, Hong Kong Indigenous and Youngspiration have been labelled radical and agitators, for taking action to protest against introducing national education in schools, and expressing anger at mainland shoppers who crowd the border towns for necessities.

Localist groups want universal suffrage for the city, and more importantly, they reject the growing influence from China.

Emily Lau, chairperson of the Democratic Party, said: "There may be some individuals who don't like China … but they are a very small number. Of course, there's a reality they have to face that an increasing number of young people are very, very unhappy, particularly with the Hong Kong government and the Chinese government."

Pro-Beijing groups and Chief Executive C Y Leung have been quick to blame localists for the deteriorating relationship between the Hong Kong people and mainland Chinese.

However, not all government officials see eye-to-eye on the matter. In his latest blog, Financial Secretary John Tsang put a positive spin on localism, comparing it to a sense of belonging, no different to pride for one's alma mater.

A recent opinion poll on ethnic identity by the University of Hong Kong showed that locals still overwhelmingly see themselves as “Hongkonger” first, despite the fact that it has been 18 years since the handover.

Said Ms Lau: "They say they're not Chinese, so what are they, they say they are Hong Kong people. And some would even go so far as to say that they want independence. But that's a small number and so … you have to engage them and find out why they behave in that way.

"It's actually quite simple, these people feel they don't have a future. If they look at their peers, they haven't got good jobs, the jobs don't pay well and they feel like they're in a rut. Some of them feel they have nothing to lose, so they create trouble."

Some are turning to more radical means to express their dissatisfaction. Six people were charged over an attempted bomb plot in the summer, and more recently, another group set off a small blast in a rubbish bin outside of the LegCo.

But there are also moderates willing to work with the system. In the November's local level district elections, localist groups fielded 53 candidates and won eight seats, some unseating established democracy veterans.

Ivan Choy Chi-Keung, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said: "In the coming Legislative Council Elections, no matter whether Beijing likes it or not, (such) elements will be introduced more into the platforms of the democrats and the pro-establishment camp will find it is difficult to respond to these kinds of ideology and voice in society. They know that they have a political market."

Political pundits have said that acknowledging localism in government policy would be a step in the right direction, and recognising Hong Kong's self-interest and the Hong Kong identity does not equate to independence. But given the current political climate, C Y Leung's administration would have a tough time trying to please two masters.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asi ... 85092.html

Ironically, the localist parties are eroding the support the Pan-Democrats have enjoyed. In fact, the end result could be that the pro-China parties will pick up seats in Legco.

Many people rejected the violence over Chinese New Year in Mong Kok, where people were setting fires and throwing paving stones at the police over the row to shut down illegal street vendors (variously called the Mong Kok riot, the Fishball Revolution, or the Battle of Mong Kok). Realistically, though, these groups don't stand a chance against the central government. Unlike Taiwan, Hong Kong has no military, no president, no independent system of government.

Edit - wow, M, you left off the next paragraph? And you complained to the mods when I suggested you were getting paid to be a pro-China internet commentator? Yikes.

[mrswdk]

@mac supporting the status quo means supporting their current status as a province of China, without giving up their current level of sovereignty.

@Mets not that I'd read that paragraph first time round, but if I had then I'd still have left it out because it is meaningless. 'When we eliminate a popular choice and make people vote within constraints that don't exist in the real world, they vote like this'. Irrelevant.

[Metsfanmax]

@mac supporting the status quo means supporting their current status as a province of China, without giving up their current level of sovereignty.

@Mets not that I'd read that paragraph first time round, but if I had then I'd still have left it out because it is meaningless. 'When we eliminate a popular choice and make people vote within constraints that don't exist in the real world, they vote like this'. Irrelevant.

It's not irrelevant, you're just choosing to only interpret the results in one manner without acknowledging other possible interpretations. For example, it could be that most people want to be independent but fear the fact that China has threatened serious violence on Taiwan if they fully declare independence -- so their choice is itself constrained by the fact that they feel they cannot take the independence option without serious reprisal. When you point a gun to someone's head, their choices aren't so meaningful either. Your argument is analogous to the American slave owners from the early 1800s who thought that the fact that slaves weren't running away (and consequently risking serious punishment if they got caught) meant that they were OK with being slaves.

[mrswdk]

Your argument is that people only support the status quo because they are too terrified of how China would respond to a declaration of independence to dare push for a declaration of independence? If that were true, why do a number of those same people then vote for independence when presented with a poll that only offers two choices - surely the fear of the mainland's reaction that stopped them voting for independence before would lead them to vote against independence in the second poll as well?

Or could it be that when you modify a poll to eliminate popular options and then compel people to choose between two less popular things they don't really want, you end up with distorted results?

Hey guys, we're doing a survey to find out who people are going to vote for in the Republican primaries. Who do you prefer, Marco Rubio or Ben Carson?

The results are in and 68.9% of people want Marco Rubio to be the Republican presidential candidate! What a popular guy!

[Metsfanmax]

Your argument is that people only support the status quo because they are too terrified of how China would respond to a declaration of independence to dare push for a declaration of independence?

My argument is that this at least could play a role in how some people are thinking about it, and it's intellectually dishonest not to acknowledge that.

If that were true, why do a number of those same people then vote for independence when presented with a poll that only offers two choices - surely the fear of the mainland's reaction that stopped them voting for independence before would lead them to vote against independence in the second poll as well?

No, that's not obviously true, because they might believe that the consequences of unification are worse than the consequences of independence. These are people weren't voting for unification to begin with, after all. If their choices were 'independence without mainland reprisal' and 'status quo' they might choose the former.

On the other hand if they're given the option to 'keep things as they are' then they might vote for that not because they really believe it's the best possible outcome but because most people don't like serious change, even if it could be slightly better for them. So the poll answer does not necessarily reflect the view that after serious reflection, Taiwanese independence is worse than the status quo. It could just be a reflection of 'that's complicated and I don't want to think about it too hard'.

[mrswdk]

If that were true, why do a number of those same people then vote for independence when presented with a poll that only offers two choices - surely the fear of the mainland's reaction that stopped them voting for independence before would lead them to vote against independence in the second poll as well?

No, that's not obviously true, because they might believe that the consequences of unification are worse than the consequences of independence. These are people who weren't voting for unification to begin with, after all. If their choices were 'independence without mainland reprisal' and 'status quo' they might choose the former.

'Independence without mainland reprisal' is not an option when you are dealing with the real world. Nowhere on the planet (Scotland, Catalonia, Eastern Ukraine, ISIS, Israel etc.) could that kind of separatism be pursued without provoking a backlash, so there is no point in speculating about fantasy scenarios in which consequence-free separatism is possible.

The point is that when people in Taiwan are asked to choose between the three options they have in real life - fully reunifying with the mainland, maintaining the status quo or declaring themselves an independent nation - the majority favor maintaining the current state of affairs (Taiwan a constituent part of China but acting with a large degree of autonomy).

if they're given the option to 'keep things as they are' then they might vote for that not because they really believe it's the best possible outcome but because most people don't like serious change, even if it could be slightly better for them.

Even if people are voting for the status quo because they don't like change, that still means that they prefer the status quo over change. Manipulating the poll to force people to vote for change when they have said they don't want change is totally bogus.

[GabonX]

So basically what mrswdk is settling on is that when faced with A) maintaining the status quo, or B) being crushed beneath China's imperial military, most Taiwanese prefer option A even though they really don't like answering to China...

No real surprise there, and not exactly something to brag about on China's part given that the poll results are based on tyrannical coercion.

[Metsfanmax]

when people in Taiwan are asked to choose between the three options they have in real life - fully reunifying with the mainland, maintaining the status quo or declaring themselves an independent nation - the majority favor maintaining the current state of affairs (Taiwan a constituent part of China but acting with a large degree of autonomy).

I agree that this is a correct statement. Unfortunately, you decided to radically re-interpret that to become the general statement "the people of Taiwan do not wish to be independent." Which is just absurd. Given this data alone, it is not possible to discard the hypothesis that what the poll results indicate is that given the consequences of choosing independence, they will currently opt not to do that. But that does not mean that if they could do so without being fired upon, they wouldn't. If that is not an option, because an independence vote will result in Chinese military action against Taiwan, fine; but then this is no longer about whether the Taiwanese people want to be independent and instead becomes about whether they can be.

It is important also to point out the difference between different kinds of backlash in different settings. If Scotland had voted for independence in the referendum, they might reasonably have expected economic consequences with respect to UK and/or the EU. But there was no evidence that the UK was going to launch a military assault on Scotland in order to keep them as part of the kingdom if the vote was for independence.