The people of Taiwan do not wish to be independent

[mrswdk]

Given that in the original question with all 3 options 31.2% of respondents supported independence for Taiwan, there is no real reason to assume that people who did not support independence probably declined to do so because they are being coerced. 31.2% is a pretty significant proportion of people choosing one option, and far more than would be expected in a poll where people felt that they were being threatened not to select that option.

Restricting the options available in order to boost the number supporting independence, and then claiming your new statistic proves people were intimidated when asked the first question, is meaningless. What matter are the responses to the first question.

[Metsfanmax]

Given that in the original question with all 3 options 31.2% of respondents supported independence for Taiwan, there is no real reason to assume that people who did not support independence probably declined to do so because they are being coerced. 31.2% is a pretty significant proportion of people choosing one option, and far more than would be expected in a poll where people felt that they were being threatened not to select that option.

It is fairly bizarre that you are suggesting that everyone would perceive the threat from the mainland the same way, and would respond to said perceived threat in the same way. Perhaps some don't think that the mainland would really go to war over the issue; perhaps some think it is much more likely than it actually is. Perhaps some think that Taiwan would be victorious in such a conflict but nevertheless want to avoid military escalation. In any event there is no basis for suggesting that the perception should be homogeneous.

Restricting the options available in order to boost the number supporting independence, and then claiming your new statistic proves people were intimidated when asked the first question, is meaningless. What matter are the responses to the first question.

The first question is only one possible way of framing the issue, and it is hardly the only thing that matters. There's a hell of a lot of parameter space between "independence" and "unification." There's probably a number of options you could add to the poll that involved greater or lesser amounts of autonomy than Taiwan currently has. If you added enough of them, probably the number selecting status quo would drop to a very small number. What is absurd is trying to pigeonhole this issue into 'independence' versus 'not-independence', because it's much less dichotomous than that in actuality.

[mrswdk]

There's a hell of a lot of parameter space between "independence" and "unification."

Yes, and 56% of respondents said that they wished to occupy that parameter space.

The big question - Do people in Taiwan support Taiwanese independence? - has been directly addressed by the poll in OP and the answer which came up is that 32% do, 68% do not. Keep speculating that 'maybe 20-30% of the population want independence but are choosing to pretend they don't when asked' if you like, but you have currently given no support for that line of thinking except pure speculation.

[Metsfanmax]

There's a hell of a lot of parameter space between "independence" and "unification."

Yes, and 56% of respondents said that they wished to occupy that parameter space.

The big question - Do people in Taiwan support Taiwanese independence? - has been directly addressed by the poll in OP and the answer which came up is that 32% do, 68% do not.

No. Just no. The reason you're failing to comprehend this issue is that you're viewing it through a lens which is very different from the lens through which Taiwanese people view it. That same poll also showed that the vast majority of Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese. The reason that many people don't "support independence" is that Taiwan is effectively independent now, except in name. So they have most of the benefits of being actually independent without any of the risks of causing China to potentially be upset because of a formal declaration. The people of Taiwan reject your framing of the issue, so as long as you continue to interpret their decision through your own perspective on the issue, you will fail to comprehend it. The majority of people in Taiwan do support Taiwanese independence; they just think they mostly already have it. The "independence" described in the poll is more a political formality than a real fact of life. The question they're really answering in that poll is not "do we want to be independent" but rather "do we want to formally break ties with China." And since China has said that it will respond seriously to such an action, it is no wonder that most people have no intention of doing anything about the status quo.

[mrswdk]

There's a hell of a lot of parameter space between "independence" and "unification."

Yes, and 56% of respondents said that they wished to occupy that parameter space.

The big question - Do people in Taiwan support Taiwanese independence? - has been directly addressed by the poll in OP and the answer which came up is that 32% do, 68% do not.

No. Just no. The reason you're failing to comprehend this issue is that you're viewing it through a lens which is very different from the lens through which Taiwanese people view it. That same poll also showed that the vast majority of Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese.

So? The majority of Scottish people feel that Scottish is their only national identity, and yet during the 2014 referendum a majority of Scottish people voted for Scotland to remain as part of the UK.

Similarly, the majority of people in Taiwan identify as 'Taiwanese' rather than 'Chinese', and yet a majority support Taiwan remaining a part of China.

The majority of people in Taiwan do support Taiwanese independence; they just think they mostly already have it.

You're still just submitting guesswork which is contradicted by the facts.

[Metsfanmax]

You're still just submitting guesswork which is contradicted by the facts.

No, I am submitting possible hypotheses that help explain the presented facts. Your problem is that you've latched on to one possible interpretation of the facts, and since you think it fits the facts, it's the only one that can. (This is likely partly a flaw in logical reasoning, and partly a lack of understanding of how sensitive poll results are to question wording.) By demonstrating that there's a perfectly sound explanation of the facts other than the one you've claimed, I've shown that in order to back up your assertion you're going to have to do more work.

[mrswdk]

Ha. I'm well aware of how sensitive poll results are to the phrasing, ordering etc. of the questions in them, thanks.

By demonstrating that there's a perfectly sound explanation of the facts other than the one you've claimed, I've shown that in order to back up your assertion you're going to have to do more work.

It's not sound. There is no reason to believe that people in Taiwan would have responded to that poll anything other than honestly. If people in Taiwan wanted to tell the newspaper which conducted that poll that they would like to see Taiwan become independent they were perfectly free to do so, as evidenced by the fact that 31.2% of respondents said exactly that.

Unless you can provide any substantive reason why we should not accept that poll as legitimate - which you so far have not - then you are providing no reason for us to doubt the accuracy of the poll or its findings.

[Metsfanmax]

Ha. I'm well aware of how sensitive poll results are to the phrasing, ordering etc. of the questions in them, thanks.

Really? So, do you know what wording was actually used in this poll? Are you confident that the people doing the report on the poll understood the consequences of the phrasing? It seems like you're trusting a fairly uninformative press release quite a lot for someone who claims to understand this.

[mrswdk]

Ha. I'm well aware of how sensitive poll results are to the phrasing, ordering etc. of the questions in them, thanks.

Really? So, do you know what wording was actually used in this poll? Are you confident that the people doing the report on the poll understood the consequences of the phrasing? It seems like you're trusting a fairly uninformative press release quite a lot for someone who claims to understand this.

The thought had occurred to me that the article doesn't actually provide the questions or the exact answers, so it's impossible to know for sure. However, given that:

- A Taiwanese newspaper has no reason to try and underplay support for independence in Taiwan
- There are only so many ways you can ask someone 'here are three options, which would you prefer?', and
- The survey appears to have been conducted properly (i.e. it wasn't just a poll stuck on the newspaper's website)

It seems safe to assume that the results have been gathered in a reasonably accurate and reliable way.

[tzor]

'Independence without mainland reprisal' is not an option when you are dealing with the real world. Nowhere on the planet (Scotland, Catalonia, Eastern Ukraine, ISIS, Israel etc.) could that kind of separatism be pursued without provoking a backlash, so there is no point in speculating about fantasy scenarios in which consequence-free separatism is possible.

Really? Well Let's find out. ...

(Paid for by the committee to encourage the UK to leave the EU just to annoy mrswdk.)

[waauw]

There's a hell of a lot of parameter space between "independence" and "unification."

Yes, and 56% of respondents said that they wished to occupy that parameter space.

The big question - Do people in Taiwan support Taiwanese independence? - has been directly addressed by the poll in OP and the answer which came up is that 32% do, 68% do not.

No. Just no. The reason you're failing to comprehend this issue is that you're viewing it through a lens which is very different from the lens through which Taiwanese people view it. That same poll also showed that the vast majority of Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese.

So? The majority of Scottish people feel that Scottish is their only national identity, and yet during the 2014 referendum a majority of Scottish people voted for Scotland to remain as part of the UK.

Similarly, the majority of people in Taiwan identify as 'Taiwanese' rather than 'Chinese', and yet a majority support Taiwan remaining a part of China.

The Scots voted against seperation for economic reasons mostly.

[mrswdk]

'Independence without mainland reprisal' is not an option when you are dealing with the real world. Nowhere on the planet (Scotland, Catalonia, Eastern Ukraine, ISIS, Israel etc.) could that kind of separatism be pursued without provoking a backlash, so there is no point in speculating about fantasy scenarios in which consequence-free separatism is possible.

Really? Well Let's find out. ...

(Paid for by the committee to encourage the UK to leave the EU just to annoy mrswdk.)

Good point - the UK leaving the EU is another example.

Personally I don't care whether the UK leaves or not.

[Symmetry]

Most Taiwanese folk were pretty happy being Independent last time I visited.