Russian forces retreat from Syria

[saxitoxin]

Celebrations in Russia as the first wave of the heroes return from victory -



In just five months the Russians killed 2,500 of the enemy at a cost of just 4 casualties.

[mrswdk]

Rookie error. This was the point at which he should have doubled troop numbers and spent the next 10 years attempting to wage a ground war in the Syrian desert.

[GoranZ]

Rookie error. This was the point at which he should have doubled troop numbers and spent the next 10 years attempting to wage a ground war in the Syrian desert.

Lessons from Afghanistan have been learned

What Putin said on Russian television on October 11, 2015?
"Our task is to stabilize the legal government and create conditions for finding political compromise"
video in russian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNuxrsnhTIg

The outcome: The Russian intervention is a stunning success, that is indisputable. Vladimir Putin and the Russian military ought to be particularly praised for having set goals fully commensurate with their real capabilities. The Russians went in with a small force and they achieved their goals: the legitimate authority of the Syrian government has been stabilized and the conditions for a political compromise have been created. That is not an opinion, but the facts on the ground. Not even the worst Putin-haters can dispute that. Putin’s declaration to withdraw bulk of the Khmeimim Air force shows that the Russians are also sticking to their initial exit strategy and are now confident enough to withdraw their forces. That is nothing short of superb (when is the last time the USA did that?).

Probably the more important success of the Russians is achieved by using diplomacy and successful negotiation tactics. Unlike their US counterparts, the Russian diplomats and intelligence officers truly understand their counterparts, not only because they are fluent in the local languages and understand the culture, but because the single important quality expected from a Russian diplomat or intelligence officer is the ability to understand the real, profound, motives of the person you are speaking to, to put yourself into his/her shoes.

Russians probably planned their withdrawal at least as carefully as the planned their intervention and that they have left as many open options as possible. By the way, the big advantage of a unilateral decision is that, unlike one taken as part of an agreement with other parties, it can be unilaterally rescinded too. It took the Russian just days to launch their initial operation even though they had to execute it all in difficult conditions and under the cloak of secrecy. How long would it take them to move back into Syria if needed?

Above all Putin showed that his record of being right and taking difficult, even risky, decisions is extremely high which eventually yielded Russia yet another unforeseen success. Like any good chess player, Putin knows that one of the key factors in any war is time and so far Putin has timed his every move superbly. Everyone can easily muster up a long list of potentially catastrophic scenarios for Syria, but I think that this would only make sense if Putin had, like Obama, a long and impressive list of failures, disasters, miscalculations and embarrassing defeats on his record. But he does not. In fact, what I see is an amazing list of successes achieved against very difficult odds.

BTW Putin is making Russia Great Again

[GabonX]

Sax and Sym are both off...

Putin to Assad, Tehran: You want to carry on fighting? Count me out

A deep rift with Tehran over the continuation of the Syrian war and an irreconcilable spat with Syrian ruler Bashar Assad over his future prompted Russian President Vladimir’s shock order Monday, March 14, for the “main part” of Russian military forces to quit Syria the next morning. This is reported by DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources.

The final limits of the military withdrawal, five months after the Moscow embarked on its intervention, were not defined. But the Kremlin did say that Moscow would retain a military presence at the naval port of Tartous and the Hmeymim airbase outside Latakia. This left the bulk of Russian military aerial and naval presence in situ; Putin is unlikely to give up this strong foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Russian president did not fix a timeline for the military withdrawal – only its start. Neither did he promise to discontinue all military operations in Syria.

He did say only that “The task put before the defense ministry and Russian armed forces has on the whole been fulfilled” and he spoke of a “fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism.”

A sign of where Moscow as heading now was disclosed by his order to the Russian foreign Minister to “Intensify our participation in a peaceful solution of the Syrian conflict”

This was a reference to the UN-brokered talks resuming in Geneva Tuesday, March 15, between the warring sides of the Syrian conflict.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence circles noted that, after Putin’s bolt from the blue, Russian warships in the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas remain ready to interfere in the fighting from a distance, if the Assad regime’s situation deteriorates. They saw an omen of Moscow’s impending military exit in last month’s massive delivery to the Syrian army of advanced T-90 tanks and heavy self-propelled artillery.

Western sources viewed the shipments as further Russian investment in high-stakes Syrian military victories in the battles for Aleppo in the north and Deraa in the south.

But this assumption was negated by the Kremlin announcement Monday. The tanks and artillery were, in fact, provided to enable Syria and its Iranian ally to carry on fighting without Russian support.

The rift between Moscow and Tehran over the Syrian war came to a head on Feb. 19 during Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan’s visit to Moscow. The Iranian minister presented his government’s demand for Russia to back away from its deal with the US for a Syrian ceasefire.

Tehran wants the war to continue without pause. After walking hand in hand with Moscow in the Syrian arena for a time, the Iranians were aghast to find Putin turning aside and entering into collaboration with the Obama administration for an end to hostilities and a political solution to the conflict.

As for Assad, he has no intention of playing along with Putin’s plans for him to step down and hand over rule in Damascus in stages. Assad does not mean to quit at any time.

The Russian president may have acted now because he was simply fed up with the interminable bickering with his two allies, which was going nowhere except for the continuation of the calamitous five-year war. He therefore presented them with a tough fait accompli. If you want to carry on fighting, fine; but count the Russian army out of it.
http://www.debka.com/article/25296/Puti ... unt-me-out

Russia is interested in maintaining a foothold in the Middle East via Syria, which he's managed to obtain by establishing naval and air bases in the region. It makes little difference to him whether his ally there is named Assad, or something else. While the Iranians are pushing for a Shia dominated Middle East, taking aim at ISIS, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and any other Sunni power brokers in the region, Putin doesn't give care about Muslim in fighting, nor does he want to get caught up in the next skirmish between Israel and it's self declared enemies...

The writing is on the wall in regards to the coming battle between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah etc. who now have a presence on Israel's Golan border. Putin had in interest in Assad staying in power long enough to establish Russian bases in Syria but no interest in taking a definitive stance on the millennia old conflict between the Sunni and Shia, nor going to war, or supporting war with Israel, or doing anything else which might jeopardize the Russian foothold on the region.

At the same time that Putin declares intent to withdrawal, Russia maintains the ability to project force in the region if that choice is made. It's actually pretty similar to what Putin does in regards to promising weapons systems to rogue states, and then delivering or withholding them to keep their respective governments in check, as well as the countries who wish to restrict delivery of those systems to rogue states.

This move, like most made under Putin, gives Russia flexibility.

[saxitoxin]

Sax and Sym are both off...

Putin to Assad, Tehran: You want to carry on fighting? Count me out

A deep rift with Tehran over the continuation of the Syrian war and an irreconcilable spat with Syrian ruler Bashar Assad over his future prompted Russian President Vladimir’s shock order Monday, March 14, for the “main part” of Russian military forces to quit Syria the next morning. This is reported by DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources.

The final limits of the military withdrawal, five months after the Moscow embarked on its intervention, were not defined. But the Kremlin did say that Moscow would retain a military presence at the naval port of Tartous and the Hmeymim airbase outside Latakia. This left the bulk of Russian military aerial and naval presence in situ; Putin is unlikely to give up this strong foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Russian president did not fix a timeline for the military withdrawal – only its start. Neither did he promise to discontinue all military operations in Syria.

He did say only that “The task put before the defense ministry and Russian armed forces has on the whole been fulfilled” and he spoke of a “fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism.”

A sign of where Moscow as heading now was disclosed by his order to the Russian foreign Minister to “Intensify our participation in a peaceful solution of the Syrian conflict”

This was a reference to the UN-brokered talks resuming in Geneva Tuesday, March 15, between the warring sides of the Syrian conflict.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence circles noted that, after Putin’s bolt from the blue, Russian warships in the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas remain ready to interfere in the fighting from a distance, if the Assad regime’s situation deteriorates. They saw an omen of Moscow’s impending military exit in last month’s massive delivery to the Syrian army of advanced T-90 tanks and heavy self-propelled artillery.

Western sources viewed the shipments as further Russian investment in high-stakes Syrian military victories in the battles for Aleppo in the north and Deraa in the south.

But this assumption was negated by the Kremlin announcement Monday. The tanks and artillery were, in fact, provided to enable Syria and its Iranian ally to carry on fighting without Russian support.

The rift between Moscow and Tehran over the Syrian war came to a head on Feb. 19 during Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan’s visit to Moscow. The Iranian minister presented his government’s demand for Russia to back away from its deal with the US for a Syrian ceasefire.

Tehran wants the war to continue without pause. After walking hand in hand with Moscow in the Syrian arena for a time, the Iranians were aghast to find Putin turning aside and entering into collaboration with the Obama administration for an end to hostilities and a political solution to the conflict.

As for Assad, he has no intention of playing along with Putin’s plans for him to step down and hand over rule in Damascus in stages. Assad does not mean to quit at any time.

The Russian president may have acted now because he was simply fed up with the interminable bickering with his two allies, which was going nowhere except for the continuation of the calamitous five-year war. He therefore presented them with a tough fait accompli. If you want to carry on fighting, fine; but count the Russian army out of it.
http://www.debka.com/article/25296/Puti ... unt-me-out

Russia is interested in maintaining a foothold in the Middle East via Syria, which he's managed to obtain by establishing naval and air bases in the region. It makes little difference to him whether his ally there is named Assad, or something else. While the Iranians are pushing for a Shia dominated Middle East, taking aim at ISIS, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and any other Sunni power brokers in the region, Putin doesn't give care about Muslim in fighting, nor does he want to get caught up in the next skirmish between Israel and it's self declared enemies...

The writing is on the wall in regards to the coming battle between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah etc. who now have a presence on Israel's Golan border. Putin had in interest in Assad staying in power long enough to establish Russian bases in Syria but no interest in taking a definitive stance on the millennia old conflict between the Sunni and Shia, nor going to war, or supporting war with Israel, or doing anything else which might jeopardize the Russian foothold on the region.

At the same time that Putin declares intent to withdrawal, Russia maintains the ability to project force in the region if that choice is made. It's actually pretty similar to what Putin does in regards to promising weapons systems to rogue states, and then delivering or withholding them to keep their respective governments in check, as well as the countries who wish to restrict delivery of those systems to rogue states.

This move, like most made under Putin, gives Russia flexibility.

good points and analysis

[GabonX]

Putin’s declaration to withdraw bulk of the Khmeimim Air force shows that the Russians are also sticking to their initial exit strategy and are now confident enough to withdraw their forces. That is nothing short of superb (when is the last time the USA did that?).

2011... It led to the rise of ISIS, just like this is likely to unless something else fills the power vacuum that would be created by a true Russian withdrawal.

[Symmetry]

With the Arab league declaring Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, terrorists, the embattled regime is losing legitimate allies at a fast pace.

[saxitoxin]

With the Arab league declaring Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, terrorists, the embattled regime is losing legitimate allies at a fast pace.

Power is the ultimate source of legitimacy.

Hezbollah has power, therefore, it has legitimacy. The [Saudi] Arab League is barely hanging on for dear life as they desperately bomb Yemen and mortgage the oil fields to delay what's coming at them like a runaway locomotive. One year from now Dr Bashar al-Assad will still be president, but it's unclear if your buddy Salman the Junior High graduate will still be king.

[Symmetry]

With the Arab league declaring Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, terrorists, the embattled regime is losing legitimate allies at a fast pace.

Power is the ultimate source of legitimacy.

Hezbollah has power, therefore, it has legitimacy. The [Saudi] Arab League is barely hanging on for dear life as they desperately bomb Yemen and mortgage the oil fields to delay what's coming at them like a runaway locomotive. One year from now our leader Bashar al-Assad will still be president, but it's unclear if your buddy Salman the Pedo will still be king.

I suspect that there will be peace talks in Russia soon- they need to negotiate, and fast.

[saxitoxin]

With the Arab league declaring Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, terrorists, the embattled regime is losing legitimate allies at a fast pace.

Power is the ultimate source of legitimacy.

Hezbollah has power, therefore, it has legitimacy. The [Saudi] Arab League is barely hanging on for dear life as they desperately bomb Yemen and mortgage the oil fields to delay what's coming at them like a runaway locomotive. One year from now our leader Bashar al-Assad will still be president, but it's unclear if your buddy Salman the Pedo will still be king.

I suspect that there will be peace talks in Russia soon- they need to negotiate, and fast.

I agree. The Geneva talks will fail, as the rebels have no bargaining room (since they're all, ummm, dead), and new talks will be held in Russia involving only the non-militarized opposition. It will be the ultimate political coup to cap our military victory and will be the final seal on the neocons humiliation. It's great to be a winner!

[Symmetry]

Is this one of your Topsy-Turvy arguments? Russia retreats, Assad loses his key allies, and the rebels and their allies force a peace deal? That's victory for Assad and Putin?

[saxitoxin]

Is this one of your Topsy-Turvy arguments? Russia retreats, Assad loses his key allies, and the rebels and their allies force a peace deal? That's victory for Assad and Putin?

You're either trolling or you've become completely disconnected from reality. Everyone, without exception, has said Russia has scored a monumental victory at the cost of utter humiliation for the west.

The delusion you're advancing (Russia killing all the rebels and then, having nothing left to do, going home = "Russia retreat!!!") is like saying Obama is a failure because Clinton and Sanders got more votes than him in this year's election. You're being utterly nonsensical and displaying the current events aptitude of a semi-retarded hippopotamus.

[Bernie Sanders]

Is this one of your Topsy-Turvy arguments? Russia retreats, Assad loses his key allies, and the rebels and their allies force a peace deal? That's victory for Assad and Putin?

You're either trolling or you've become completely disconnected from reality. Everyone, without exception, has said Russia has scored a monumental victory at the cost of utter humiliation for the west.

The delusion you're advancing (Russia killing all the rebels and then, having nothing left to do, going home = "Russia retreat!!!") is like saying Obama is a failure because Clinton and Sanders got more votes than him in this year's election. You're being utterly nonsensical and displaying the current events aptitude of a semi-retarded hippopotamus.

You are either delusional or like to play the moronic spectator.

[mrswdk]

Is this one of your Topsy-Turvy arguments? Russia retreats, Assad loses his key allies, and the rebels and their allies force a peace deal? That's victory for Assad and Putin?

You're either trolling or you've become completely disconnected from reality. Everyone, without exception, has said Russia has scored a monumental victory at the cost of utter humiliation for the west.

The delusion you're advancing (Russia killing all the rebels and then, having nothing left to do, going home = "Russia retreat!!!") is like saying Obama is a failure because Clinton and Sanders got more votes than him in this year's election. You're being utterly nonsensical and displaying the current events aptitude of a semi-retarded hippopotamus.

You are either delusional or like to play the moronic spectator.

I mean everyone is saying it. From the BBC:

How President Putin is getting what he wants in Syria

[Bernie Sanders]

Is this one of your Topsy-Turvy arguments? Russia retreats, Assad loses his key allies, and the rebels and their allies force a peace deal? That's victory for Assad and Putin?

You're either trolling or you've become completely disconnected from reality. Everyone, without exception, has said Russia has scored a monumental victory at the cost of utter humiliation for the west.

The delusion you're advancing (Russia killing all the rebels and then, having nothing left to do, going home = "Russia retreat!!!") is like saying Obama is a failure because Clinton and Sanders got more votes than him in this year's election. You're being utterly nonsensical and displaying the current events aptitude of a semi-retarded hippopotamus.

You are either delusional or like to play the moronic spectator.

I mean everyone is saying it. From the BBC:

How President Putin is getting what he wants in Syria

\

..and quoted from above article:

But this is a government widely believed to have sent its agents to poison an opponent in London, leaving a radioactive trail across the city.

[mrswdk]

Nice non sequitur.

Will you continue posting on here after Clinton has defeated Sanders in the race for nomination?

[saxitoxin]

"I DRIVE A CUPCAKE!"

[GoranZ]

Nice non sequitur.

Will you continue posting on here after Clinton has defeated Sanders in the race for nomination?

Bernie Sanders already lost... Tho he isn't aware of it, exactly like in here



Bernie Sanders let me help you... Don't look for bigger rock, just QUIT

[GoranZ]

Putin’s declaration to withdraw bulk of the Khmeimim Air force shows that the Russians are also sticking to their initial exit strategy and are now confident enough to withdraw their forces. That is nothing short of superb (when is the last time the USA did that?).

2011... It led to the rise of ISIS, just like this is likely to unless something else fills the power vacuum that would be created by a true Russian withdrawal.

You only read what you want to read, and not everything. Here it is...

Everyone can easily muster up a long list of potentially catastrophic scenarios for Syria, but I think that this would only make sense if Putin had, like Obama, a long and impressive list of failures, disasters, miscalculations and embarrassing defeats on his record. But he does not. In fact, what I see is an amazing list of successes achieved against very difficult odds.

With the Arab league declaring Hezbollah, a key Assad ally, terrorists, the embattled regime is losing legitimate allies at a fast pace.

Power is the ultimate source of legitimacy.

Hezbollah has power, therefore, it has legitimacy. The [Saudi] Arab League is barely hanging on for dear life as they desperately bomb Yemen and mortgage the oil fields to delay what's coming at them like a runaway locomotive. One year from now our leader Bashar al-Assad will still be president, but it's unclear if your buddy Salman the Pedo will still be king.

I suspect that there will be peace talks in Russia soon- they need to negotiate, and fast.

Like every other Islamist you are very afraid from the Russians... Well you should be

[riskllama]

is this the thread where we line up to give Putin a hand job? i'm asking for a friend.

[riskllama]

Nice non sequitur.

Will you continue posting on here after Clinton has defeated Sanders in the race for nomination?

Bernie Sanders already lost... Tho he isn't aware of it, exactly like in here



Bernie Sanders let me help you... Don't look for bigger rock, just QUIT

i was wondering the same thing myself...
kind of like the guy that goes and gets a huge tattoo to support his team during their cinderella run to the finals, only to have them come up short. DOH!

[Symmetry]

Nice non sequitur.

Will you continue posting on here after Clinton has defeated Sanders in the race for nomination?

Bernie Sanders already lost... Tho he isn't aware of it, exactly like in here



Bernie Sanders let me help you... Don't look for bigger rock, just QUIT

i was wondering the same thing myself...
kind of like the guy that goes and gets a huge tattoo to support his team during their cinderella run to the finals, only to have them come up short. DOH!

Meh- he's more interesting when he breaks character.