War of the Triple Cult (Day 6)

[Juan_Bottom]

If he's telling the truth, then he's an unrecrutable townie. Since any cult that recruites him, will be giving all their information to another cult. That's why would could use him. If we could trust him, then we could trust him... if ya know what I mean.

But if he is a leader, then he has the perfect hiding spot.

[captainwalrus]

There is no evidence that he is lying but there is no one to vouch for him either so his claim hasn't done much. He doesn't seem trustworthy and he just seems to be getting a little frantic and confused

almost all or all of these were before my claim

Confused much? They all were about his claim.
If it looks like scum, acts like scum and smells pretty heavily of scum then chances are, it's scum so I say we find the highest tree in town and hang that cultist bastard. And we seriously need to get some more people to comment. My theory is that a lot of the people who are hiding and not really posting much now that the pressure is on Derfderf are all blue cult members and they don't want to defend him in case we can lynch him and then when he turns up cult they are next on the chopping block. His cult could probably have about 5 by now and they are trying to distance themselves without actually voting for a member of their own cult.

[Suspect101]

if they get 1 each night, blue cult has 4 members

[spiesr]

His cult could probably have about 5 by now.

if they get 1 each night, blue cult has 4 members

Suspect is right, you appear tp have miscounted the nights the same way sheep did when he made his fake claim. Does that mean anything? Probably not. Although you could be a blue cult member and purposely miscounted in order to make us think that you are not. This train of though however, is extremely weak and rather WIFOMy so it really shouldn't be taken overly seriously.

Now down to business. We need to evalute derfderf's claim and his scummyness and decide if he should be lynched. Are we under any sort of deadline yet?
If we are not sure what to do about derfderf we could have ace or / kill him tonight. Although if he is a cult leader that would be not that good of an idea.
My current opinion is as follows. He certianly appears scummy, but, if you allow me to meta game a bit, he is like this in alomst all his games. As for his claim, it appears somewhat unbalanced. However, it doesn't seem like the knid of thing he would make up to fake claim. This is why I haven't voted for him just yet.

[Haggis_McMutton]

His cult could probably have about 5 by now.

if they get 1 each night, blue cult has 4 members

Suspect is right, you appear tp have miscounted the nights the same way sheep did when he made his fake claim. Does that mean anything? Probably not. Although you could be a blue cult member and purposely miscounted in order to make us think that you are not. This train of though however, is extremely weak and rather WIFOMy so it really shouldn't be taken overly seriously.

Now down to business. We need to evalute derfderf's claim and his scummyness and decide if he should be lynched. Are we under any sort of deadline yet?
If we are not sure what to do about derfderf we could have ace or / kill him tonight. Although if he is a cult leader that would be not that good of an idea.
My current opinion is as follows. He certianly appears scummy, but, if you allow me to meta game a bit, he is like this in alomst all his games. As for his claim, it appears somewhat unbalanced. However, it doesn't seem like the knid of thing he would make up to fake claim. This is why I haven't voted for him just yet.

I fall in roughly the same boat. He does seem scummiest at the moment, but not scummy enough too lynch just yet. Besides, as i've said throughout the game, as long as we don't have a deadline, we should discuss things very thoroughly.

It would probably be more productive if more people shared their thoughts though. I second the motion for some prods, Nate?

[Natewolfman]

here are the dates in which people have spoken

farside22 (need a replacment)

Iliad - Not talked since Day 3

nagerous - 3-15

william18 - 3-17
ace1217 - 3-17

LSU Tiger Josh - 3-18
norsemsn1066 - 3-18

Stroop - 3-19
derfderf34 - 3-19
Haggis_McMutton - 3-19
spiesr - 3-19
Juan_Bottom - 3-19
captainwalrus - 3-19
Suspect101 - 3-19

Based on this, I still need a replacment for farside... I need to send a prod to Illiad, and nagerous(though he did post 3 days ago)

vote count soon to come

[Natewolfman]

Vote Count

derfderf24 - 7 votes (Suspect101, Stroop, captainwalrus, ace1217, william18, LSU Tiger Josh, nagerous)
LSU Tiger Josh - 1 vote (derfderf34)

With 14 players it takes 8 votes to lynch

derfderf is at L-1

[Natewolfman]

The Fuzzy Pengui replaces farside22

[Suspect101]

unvote

[captainwalrus]

unvote

Why?

[spiesr]

I am guessing that he does not want derfderf to be one away from being lynched so that anybody could just show up a hammer him...

[spiesr]

Suspect, although I thought your reasons for your action were fairly obvious, captain walrus's reaction shows why you should always explain your votes and unvotes...

[The Fuzzy Pengui]

Anybody want to give me a quick fill in on what's gone on recently (so I don't have to go back and read 66 pages of info)?

[captainwalrus]

We got the leaders of the green and red cult, one by lynch and one by a power role. There is the blue cult which is left and that is the strongest. We know of a few cult and town roles. There are 2 investigators one for red and one for blue (the green one was killed.) However, one of them (ace) is now also a gereen cult killer (a person who kills for cult) but cult killers can't kill town (or at least that is what the former red cult killer told us and we have no reason to suspect otherwise.) The other investigator is Suspect who can investigate blue. He can kill a blue cult member, investigate someone to see if they are blue cult, and cannot be recruted by blue cult.
Stroop can explain his role but he is town.
Derfderf acts suspicious and has been on and inflated avery bandwagon thus far. He has claimed that he is a flip-flopper which means that if he is recruted by one cult he actualy goes to a different one and is able to see all the members of the cult that origonaly tried to recruit him. I think that seems far fetched and he is at L-2 right now.
There are a lot of people lurking and some prodds have gone out. I suspect some of the lurkers are cult buddies with derfderf and are trying to not seem like they are defending him incase he is cult but they don't want to go so far as to lynch their own cult member.

At this point it is pretty much town vs blue cause we know all the green and red people and they sort of work for us.

THis isn't really all that compleat but just ask anything you want to know.

[captainwalrus]

And I won't really be able to use a computer from tommorow to sunday so I won't be lurking, I have other thing that need to be done.

[Suspect101]

Suspect, although I thought your reasons for your action were fairly obvious, captain walrus's reaction shows why you should always explain your votes and unvotes...

As I did unvote, since he is at L-1, and did not want walrus (who could be cult as well) to be able to pile on a bandwagon inconspicuously and lynch who could be an innocent derf. It is not as obvious as it may seem I am afraid.
This is what I mean:
I am fairly confident that derf is cult, but that can be confirmed in a few different ways, not just through a lynch. He can also be investigated, which he has not been to this point as far as I know.
If we kill derf and he is actually a flipper flopper, we lose two town rolls instead of one because the town will lose one to recruitment tonight anyways. With three of us able to investigate/kill cult only, that gives us a 25% chance of catching a blue cult member.
So right now we are at this:
1 RED, 4 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 8 TOWN
If Derf is cult, tomorrow it will be (assuming that no one else finds blue)
1 RED, 4 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 7 TOWN
But if Derf is town and we lynch him:
1 RED, 5 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 6 TOWN
That puts blue in the driver seat and us on our heels.
If derf is either town/cult and there is no lynch:
1 RED, 5 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 7 TOWN
Blue gains a member, but town still stays ahead. That gives us two nights of investigation without having to worry about the blue cult on our heels.
So. I vote no lynch.

[Suspect101]

Suspect, although I thought your reasons for your action were fairly obvious, captain walrus's reaction shows why you should always explain your votes and unvotes...

As I did unvote, since he is at L-1, and did not want walrus (who could be cult as well) to be able to pile on a bandwagon inconspicuously and lynch who could be an innocent derf. It is not as obvious as it may seem I am afraid.
This is what I mean:
I am fairly confident that derf is cult, but that can be confirmed in a few different ways, not just through a lynch. He can also be investigated, which he has not been to this point as far as I know.
If we kill derf and he is actually a flipper flopper, we lose two town rolls instead of one because the town will lose one to recruitment tonight anyways. With three of us able to investigate/kill cult only, that gives us a 25% chance of catching a blue cult member.
So right now we are at this:
1 RED, 4 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 8 TOWN
If Derf is cult, tomorrow it will be (assuming that no one else finds blue)
1 RED, 4 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 7 TOWN
But if Derf is town and we lynch him:
1 RED, 5 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 6 TOWN
That puts blue in the driver seat and us on our heels.
If derf is either town/cult and there is no lynch:
1 RED, 5 BLUE, 1 GREEN, 7 TOWN
Blue gains a member, but town still stays ahead. That gives us two nights of investigation without having to worry about the blue cult on our heels.
So. I vote no lynch.

This is up for discussion and would like everyone to post their thoughts on it.

[The Fuzzy Pengui]

Thanks for the fill-in.

I'm not going to vote for derf right now, as suspect makes a very good point.

By the way, even though I'm coming in as a replacement, I'm not going to be back on until Monday. I'm really sorry, but it seems like we're close to Night anyways (where less action normally takes place anyways). After that I'll definitely be active!

[LSU Tiger Josh]

1 penguin we can't have night until we come to a consensus on a lynch.
suspect no lynch doesn't do that much good as it will ENSURE that blue gets another recruit tonight. we need to try to get a lynch to try to get the last leader(blue's). After the lynch, I would suggest that the psychologist that can protect up to 3 people a night protect myself and any other 2 claimed townie type roles while any of the "only cult killer" roles investigate me as I am truly town.

[spiesr]

We got the leaders of the green and red cult, one by lynch and one by a power role. There is the blue cult which is left and that is the strongest. We know of a few cult and town roles. There are 2 investigators one for red and one for blue (the green one was killed.) However, one of them (ace) is now also a gereen cult killer (a person who kills for cult) but cult killers can't kill town (or at least that is what the former red cult killer told us and we have no reason to suspect otherwise.) The other investigator is Suspect who can investigate blue. He can kill a blue cult member, investigate someone to see if they are blue cult, and cannot be recruted by blue cult.
Stroop can explain his role but he is town.
Derfderf acts suspicious and has been on and inflated avery bandwagon thus far. He has claimed that he is a flip-flopper which means that if he is recruted by one cult he actualy goes to a different one and is able to see all the members of the cult that origonaly tried to recruit him. I think that seems far fetched and he is at L-2 right now.
There are a lot of people lurking and some prodds have gone out. I suspect some of the lurkers are cult buddies with derfderf and are trying to not seem like they are defending him incase he is cult but they don't want to go so far as to lynch their own cult member.

At this point it is pretty much town vs blue cause we know all the green and red people and they sort of work for us.

THis isn't really all that compleat but just ask anything you want to know.

Info that you didn't include or didn't make fully clear.
William is the last surviving member of the red cult. He has investigative powers.
Last night, ace claims to be been recruited into the green cult. He claims to be the only member to survive the night, and to be able to kill other cult members.

[spiesr]

Hmm...
Assuming all claims of unrecruitabilty are correct. (With derfderf being lynched or telling the truth) The people who the cult could recruit are the following:
LSU Tiger Josh
Iliad
norsemsn1066
Stroop
nagerous
The Fuzzy Pengui
Haggis_McMutton
spiesr
Juan_Bottom
captainwalrus
3 or 4 should already be cult (depending on derf's status) so they would have 7 or 6 choices.
10 people is one too many to spread the psycologists across.

[The Fuzzy Pengui]

1 penguin we can't have night until we come to a consensus on a lynch.

I know, I said that it seemed like we were close to Night status (since derf was -2).

[Suspect101]

1 penguin we can't have night until we come to a consensus on a lynch.
suspect no lynch doesn't do that much good as it will ENSURE that blue gets another recruit tonight. we need to try to get a lynch to try to get the last leader(blue's). After the lynch, I would suggest that the psychologist that can protect up to 3 people a night protect myself and any other 2 claimed townie type roles while any of the "only cult killer" roles investigate me as I am truly town.

From reading past other games, we do not need a lynch to go to night.

and why would the psychologist protect you over anyone esle, what was your claim?

[norsemsn1066]

What's the deal with Suspect101 and ace? I need some Cliff notes please.

Ace claims to be the last green cult member. He apparently has a killing role, but he can only kill cult leaders (more or less confirmed by sheepofdumb and / on day 3).

Suspect101 replaced kagetora. He's likely the blue cult investigator (don't be fooled, it's a town role...). Since we still haven't killed any blue cult members, Suspect is a great source of info.

Thank you for the info.

[spiesr]

From reading past other games, we do not need a lynch to go to night.

Sort of correct. To go to night, we need to have a majority vote to lynch someone, a majority vote to not lynch, or a deadline to expire. Right now there is no deadline, so day will only end when a majority is reached.

and why would the psychologist protect you over anyone esle, what was your claim?

His claim was vanilla townie.