POTC Mafia Game Thread Day 7 Town Win! Premium goes to Sully

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:38 pm

nagerous wrote:Perhaps a doctor protected me? Come on man... that would be why I didn't die. I'm not cult, that I can guarantee.

That's a possibility. I admit part of my strategy was 'fling now, find out later'. But coming into this game, it was my first real piece of information and seemed like a juicy one. I am interested to know, how can you guarantee it? Correct me if I'm wrong but pure cops find out if someone is mafia or not - no way to figure out cult association.

by **edocsil** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:42 pm

safariguy5 wrote:Scene

During the night and reeling from the loss of Mercer, Cutler Beckett ordered a broadside into the Black Pearl. One of his gunners took aim at a night lantern on deck and fired a 12 pound ball at the ship with black sails.

On deck, the night watchmen was impaled by the various splinters and wood fragments that the cannonball made as it tore through the railing. He lay on the deck dying in pools of his own blood.

Almost as if it were chance, a barnacled and peglegged man strode towards him.

"Life is cruel. Why should the afterlife be any different? One Hundred Years before the mast. Will ye serve?"

"I will."

It is now Day 3, with 17 alive, it take 9 to lynch.

Yeah, so Nag is cult, but not Jones, if Doom is telling the truth I don't think we should lynch him, but kill him tonight. Jones is who we need to find, as he will just make more minions.

pancakemix wrote:These games are mutually exclusive. What I do in one game has no bearing on another. Secondly, edoc made his now or never offer, but from the start he proved that he was an astute businessman who knows that if he can't get what he wants now, Davy Jones is just as much a threat to him as he is to us. I'm not sure why YOU haven't gotten that.

Finding Jones is his bargaining chip. So for today, Mandy lives. But if Jones hangs Mandy is sure to follow. And as I said, I want you dead because you give baseless accusations of "I know you're cult" in nag's direction. Justify this in any way and perhaps this can get productive.

PCM basically hit it on the head there. While I think my odds of winning go down dramatically after today I can adapt to a new situation. I do however contest that an opinion of someone does in fact carry from to game to game (look at mandy) and it will influence a persons opions on their actions. IMO I almost always tell the truth, as scum I try to prevent a confrontation involving myself from coming to a head rather then cook up an epic fake claim. They tend to fall apart the farther along in the game you get.

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:52 pm

Ugh.. I was saxlad's mason, if I was undead he would've said something about it and would've alerted the town about it day 3 rather than just coming in to hammer streaker.

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:54 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
nagerous wrote:Perhaps a doctor protected me? Come on man... that would be why I didn't die. I'm not cult, that I can guarantee.

That's a possibility. I admit part of my strategy was 'fling now, find out later'. But coming into this game, it was my first real piece of information and seemed like a juicy one. I am interested to know, how can you guarantee it? Correct me if I'm wrong but pure cops find out if someone is mafia or not - no way to figure out cult association.

Yes cops can find out cult association, well at least they would be told I was 3rd party if I had been recruited. Killing me is a wasted vig kill, I don't mind being investigated to prove my innocence.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:56 pm

nagerous wrote:Ugh.. I was saxlad's mason, if I was undead he would've said something about it and would've alerted the town about it day 3 rather than just coming in to hammer streaker.

Would he have known unless you told him?

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:57 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
nagerous wrote:Ugh.. I was saxlad's mason, if I was undead he would've said something about it and would've alerted the town about it day 3 rather than just coming in to hammer streaker.

Would he have known unless you told him?

I presume as much.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 12:58 pm

In that case, I hereby rest my case. Sorry for all the bother.

by **strike wolf** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:15 pm

That's interesting...it seems either doomyoshi is lying or nag is cult. If that's the case it would seem that davy jones is unwatchable which kind of sounds overpowered...I guess it is possible that there are other circumstances however I would have assumed docs would be elsewhere...

by **edocsil** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:53 pm

nagerous wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:
nagerous wrote:Ugh.. I was saxlad's mason, if I was undead he would've said something about it and would've alerted the town about it day 3 rather than just coming in to hammer streaker.

Would he have known unless you told him?

I presume as much.

No, you know full well that that isn't true nag. Masons are NEVER told if their partners allegiance changes.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:57 pm

According to mafiascum it can go either way. So the question is: who has played enough saf-modded games to know?

by **got tonkaed** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:00 pm

It certainly is possible that nagerous is cult, but Doom seems to fail to have a whole lot of a case behind it. At the same time, if nagerous is cult, he would probably fit slightly higher on the need to lynch scale than edoc.

Edoc getting a sword is actually a pretty snazzy idea, he does have a better than average shot of getting cult. At the same time, the only way you would really trust the move is to lynch mandy that way he doesnt do the obvious and waste the value of it completely.

In regards to who the cult leader might be I think you could make interesting cases for Victor and /. Strike made a pretty solid post with some reasons as to why it might be Victor which were not really responded to. At the same time, if we are looking at players who have been relatively low profile / fits. Without a whole lot of activity there is next to no pressure on him all game and most of his posts (including his recent one) support ideas previously argued by someone else.

I think I would want to hear from him a little bit more, since we have gotten so little, and it looks pretty important to get a cult lynch today.

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:41 pm

If edoc is getting a sword I probably should say my goodbyes now :lol:

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:43 pm

got tonkaed wrote:It certainly is possible that nagerous is cult, but Doom seems to fail to have a whole lot of a case behind it. At the same time, if nagerous is cult, he would probably fit slightly higher on the need to lynch scale than edoc.

Edoc getting a sword is actually a pretty snazzy idea, he does have a better than average shot of getting cult. At the same time, the only way you would really trust the move is to lynch mandy that way he doesnt do the obvious and waste the value of it completely.

In regards to who the cult leader might be I think you could make interesting cases for Victor and /. Strike made a pretty solid post with some reasons as to why it might be Victor which were not really responded to. At the same time, if we are looking at players who have been relatively low profile / fits. Without a whole lot of activity there is next to no pressure on him all game and most of his posts (including his recent one) support ideas previously argued by someone else.

I think I would want to hear from him a little bit more, since we have gotten so little, and it looks pretty important to get a cult lynch today.

If Mandy is lynched, edoc is endgamed. I am agreeing that / is laying pretty low, although it seems to be his usual level (I have played once with him before). Victor seems to be posting a bit more frequently than usual, but that might have nothing to do with anything. However, if we could at least get from the two of them who they think the most likely recruiter candidates are, we can start working towards something.

by **safariguy5** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:46 pm

Vote Count

edoc(1)- mandy
Victor(4)- strike, sheep, tails, /
Com9(1)- freezie
sheep(1)- falko

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

by **strike wolf** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 4:03 pm

Tonka brings up some good points...I don't know what to really make of / as he doesn't appear to be the most active participant in general recently. I would like to hear an explanation on one point if only to give me a better idea of how cult is played. Nag, why would cult aim for submariners over known power roles?

by **Commander9** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:29 pm

got tonkaed wrote:It certainly is possible that nagerous is cult, but Doom seems to fail to have a whole lot of a case behind it. At the same time, if nagerous is cult, he would probably fit slightly higher on the need to lynch scale than edoc.

Edoc getting a sword is actually a pretty snazzy idea, he does have a better than average shot of getting cult. At the same time, the only way you would really trust the move is to lynch mandy that way he doesnt do the obvious and waste the value of it completely.

In regards to who the cult leader might be I think you could make interesting cases for Victor and /. Strike made a pretty solid post with some reasons as to why it might be Victor which were not really responded to. At the same time, if we are looking at players who have been relatively low profile / fits. Without a whole lot of activity there is next to no pressure on him all game and most of his posts (including his recent one) support ideas previously argued by someone else.

I think I would want to hear from him a little bit more, since we have gotten so little, and it looks pretty important to get a cult lynch today.

Agreed with most of what's posted - except for Edoc's and Mandy's lynch. That's one thing I refuse to do (today anyways) unless something dramatically changes..

strike wolf wrote:Tonka brings up some good points...I don't know what to really make of / as he doesn't appear to be the most active participant in general recently. I would like to hear an explanation on one point if only to give me a better idea of how cult is played. Nag, why would cult aim for submariners over known power roles?

This is actually something I'd love to know as well. (as far as / goes, we can't discount the fact he could be Davey Jones himself and that's why he's laying low).

by **strike wolf** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:35 pm

Commander9 wrote:
got tonkaed wrote:It certainly is possible that nagerous is cult, but Doom seems to fail to have a whole lot of a case behind it. At the same time, if nagerous is cult, he would probably fit slightly higher on the need to lynch scale than edoc.

Edoc getting a sword is actually a pretty snazzy idea, he does have a better than average shot of getting cult. At the same time, the only way you would really trust the move is to lynch mandy that way he doesnt do the obvious and waste the value of it completely.

In regards to who the cult leader might be I think you could make interesting cases for Victor and /. Strike made a pretty solid post with some reasons as to why it might be Victor which were not really responded to. At the same time, if we are looking at players who have been relatively low profile / fits. Without a whole lot of activity there is next to no pressure on him all game and most of his posts (including his recent one) support ideas previously argued by someone else.

I think I would want to hear from him a little bit more, since we have gotten so little, and it looks pretty important to get a cult lynch today.

Agreed with most of what's posted - except for Edoc's and Mandy's lynch. That's one thing I refuse to do (today anyways) unless something dramatically changes..

strike wolf wrote:Tonka brings up some good points...I don't know what to really make of / as he doesn't appear to be the most active participant in general recently. I would like to hear an explanation on one point if only to give me a better idea of how cult is played. Nag, why would cult aim for submariners over known power roles?

This is actually something I'd love to know as well. (as far as / goes, we can't discount the fact he could be Davey Jones himself and that's why he's laying low).

That's what I am saying though...we've caught / as being scum because of inactivity a couple of times recently but it has been mostly coincidental as he was also inactive in games as town so I am divided as to that point.

by **Commander9** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:38 pm

strike wolf wrote:That's what I am saying though...we've caught / as being scum because of inactivity a couple of times recently but it has been mostly coincidental as he was also inactive in games as town so I am divided as to that point.

That's why my vote isn't on him yet. From everything that we went on today, though, I'm leaning towards pressuring either him or Sully (latter being the one who I think deserves it more).

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:40 pm

strike wolf wrote:Tonka brings up some good points...I don't know what to really make of / as he doesn't appear to be the most active participant in general recently. I would like to hear an explanation on one point if only to give me a better idea of how cult is played. Nag, why would cult aim for submariners over known power roles?

My point was that cult are also likely to aim for people like iliad, /, tonka who show up every so often - make one post then disappear, never really get involved in disputes like I do all the time because I am constantly posting because they are able to submarine and sadly get away with it. I didn't say they are more likely than known power roles (well maybe I did I can't be bothered to check now) but I stated that Yoshis argument was WIFOM.

by **Commander9** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:43 pm

nagerous wrote:My point was that cult are also likely to aim for people like iliad, /, tonka who show up every so often - make one post then disappear, never really get involved in disputes like I do all the time because I am constantly posting because they are able to submarine and sadly get away with it. I didn't say they are more likely than known power roles (well maybe I did I can't be bothered to check now) but I stated that Yoshis argument was WIFOM.

Not sure how much I agree with this, however - if I was a cult recruiter (Look @ Albarezzi), I'd try to recruit mostly active, strong power-roles, those who are trusted by town and you would be one of my top priorities.

by **DoomYoshi** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:44 pm

Oh, the irony.

by **nagerous** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:48 pm

Commander9 wrote:
nagerous wrote:My point was that cult are also likely to aim for people like iliad, /, tonka who show up every so often - make one post then disappear, never really get involved in disputes like I do all the time because I am constantly posting because they are able to submarine and sadly get away with it. I didn't say they are more likely than known power roles (well maybe I did I can't be bothered to check now) but I stated that Yoshis argument was WIFOM.

Not sure how much I agree with this, however - if I was a cult recruiter (Look @ Albarezzi), I'd try to recruit mostly active, strong power-roles, those who are trusted by town and you would be one of my top priorities.

That was sorta different as nearly everyone was a big claimed role. Here there's only one claimed guy falko (besides edoc who I think cant be recruited) - who sure could be cult but has acted trustworthy so far I think in his actions of giving swords. There are a lot more people who are laying low on the other hand and getting away with it because of the mafia being pulled to part. The majority of these people are initially pro-town but could easily be viable cult recruits.

by **strike wolf** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 8:15 pm

Also just noticed it appears tonka forgot about edoc being endgamed once mandy is dead.

by **got tonkaed** on Sat Apr 23, 2011 8:19 pm

I think it would depend on what you know is available. I guess thats why I am surprised in some ways that Edoc wasn't recruited (though I suppose I am only going off his word) since he has a claim that would have bought a few days of probably being alive. When there is a variety of claimed power roles, you would think those would be the ones who were open to be recruited.

If you look at day 1 though, it seems that the cult attempt to recruit mr.squirrel led to a kill (which is strange as often cult recruit mafia = death). Mr. squirrel did not seem to stand out in any way on day 1, so the fact that a relatively nondescript player was the initial target, suggests that might be the direction this cult leader was going in.

Whether or not the cult leader would play like that themselves is debatable, but it would seem the beginning strategy at least was to go low profile. Which does seem to have worked, as there really is little to no discussion at all of cult in day 1 or 2.

As far as the edoc/mandy thing, I was pointing out that it would only really make sense from a town perspective if mandy was dead as we know what he would do. Ergo, while interesting, it is not really an idea that can be pursued in any real sense due to game mechanics. Sorry for the confusion on that one.

by / on Sun Apr 24, 2011 7:46 pm

I try to post as much as I am able to, but I am not here every RL day, which is the main reason I've cut down so much on joined games.
The all this discussion of who would logically be recruited, while interesting, seems to be quite WIFOM when compared to the actual scum tells out there, it is okay to humor such possibilities in order to build a more thorough case, but, if you are scum and town can formulaically predict your moves movie criminal profiler style, you're probably doing it wrong.
In general for this sort of situation, if there is an intent of a town follow through (IE: making a case decent enough that we can get solid information out of the player) it is a good town move, but if we simply allow the uncertainty of a possibility linger, it will only spread paranoia, influencing the night actions predictably, which town should not encourage at this stage.