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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:15 am

Look we need Thor to claim before we do anything else. But on the other hand i believe Ewebasher. It's a solid story just like Pixar. So Thor is town (no bear sniff).

So based on what we have here it must be Deg and Swang on top of the scum list now.. Sorry Swang, and sorry Deg. Just you two remaining.

Yes Dega Ragian, because i can see white wolf Loose killing wolf Deg as a very plausible scenario.. with the other wolf target probably getting defended..

Then Ragian gets the message (only) Dega was killed by the wolves (the white wolf is a wolf afterall) so he revives him..

In the rulebook it says "but every other night the white wolf wakes up alone and can eliminate a werewolf" = so that would have been on N2.. and you said "He was targeted by the wolves N2."..
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby swang918 on Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:20 pm

I'll run through some thoughts on the more recent claims.

Ragian - witch
Likelihood of fake claim: Very low. With the poisoning, we already know there a witch exists in the game. So for a wolf to fake a witch claim, would be for the wolf to basically be going all in on Thor or maybe EW being the witch and hoping they never come back. Very unlikely I think.
Implications if true: most likely Dega is town since Dega got targeted by wolves. However, as Sonic points out, it is possible that the revival was for a wolf dega who got eaten by Loose N2. There is no logical reason why Loose would want to kill a fellow wolf N2, but Loose has shown that he really lives up to his name. So Dega is likely town but not cleared imo.

Ewebasher - Bear tamer
Likelihood of fake claim: low. Basher and Pixar both have claimed roles that I would have thought were for live play only and did not think would exist in online format. This means that these are good fake claims for a wolf because there's little chance someone else would have the role. But for a wolf Basher to come up with this fake bear tamer claim, on the basis of the above logic, is such a clever, aggressive 4d chess move that I don't want to credit him with the capability. Seems more likely that Traf actually did adapt the tamer role for online and the modifications do seem reasonable.
Implications if true: Sonic is double cleared, Thor is cleared.

Pixar - little girl
Likelihood of fake claim: medium. Unlike Basher's bear tamer claim, the little girl modifications described by Pix seem more weird and awkward. He gets a random line pasted from wolf chat? How would the randomization work? Wolf chat is going to have names of other wolves throughout the chat. so to make this work Traf would have to be going through the chat picking out lines that don't identify any wolves. Is Traf scrolling thru wolf chat with his eyes closed and putting a finger on the screen to pick the line? If the chosen line is not random, Traf would have to be picking the lines and choosing which ones to send, so he would have to make sure the chosen chat doesn't make things too easy for town or too meaningless. The mechanics of it is just lot of work for Traf to put on himself. I think this is the claim most likely to be fake.
Implications if true: none, other than just Pix being town.

vote Pixar

also, again, lynching Pix would have the benefit of giving Sonic the double vote if Pix flips town.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby *Pixar* on Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:47 pm

swang918 wrote:I'll run through some thoughts on the more recent claims.

Ragian - witch
Likelihood of fake claim: Very low. With the poisoning, we already know there a witch exists in the game. So for a wolf to fake a witch claim, would be for the wolf to basically be going all in on Thor or maybe EW being the witch and hoping they never come back. Very unlikely I think.
Implications if true: most likely Dega is town since Dega got targeted by wolves. However, as Sonic points out, it is possible that the revival was for a wolf dega who got eaten by Loose N2. There is no logical reason why Loose would want to kill a fellow wolf N2, but Loose has shown that he really lives up to his name. So Dega is likely town but not cleared imo.

Ewebasher - Bear tamer
Likelihood of fake claim: low. Basher and Pixar both have claimed roles that I would have thought were for live play only and did not think would exist in online format. This means that these are good fake claims for a wolf because there's little chance someone else would have the role. But for a wolf Basher to come up with this fake bear tamer claim, on the basis of the above logic, is such a clever, aggressive 4d chess move that I don't want to credit him with the capability. Seems more likely that Traf actually did adapt the tamer role for online and the modifications do seem reasonable.
Implications if true: Sonic is double cleared, Thor is cleared.

Pixar - little girl
Likelihood of fake claim: medium. Unlike Basher's bear tamer claim, the little girl modifications described by Pix seem more weird and awkward. He gets a random line pasted from wolf chat? How would the randomization work? Wolf chat is going to have names of other wolves throughout the chat. so to make this work Traf would have to be going through the chat picking out lines that don't identify any wolves. Is Traf scrolling thru wolf chat with his eyes closed and putting a finger on the screen to pick the line? If the chosen line is not random, Traf would have to be picking the lines and choosing which ones to send, so he would have to make sure the chosen chat doesn't make things too easy for town or too meaningless. The mechanics of it is just lot of work for Traf to put on himself. I think this is the claim most likely to be fake.
Implications if true: none, other than just Pix being town.

vote Pixar

also, again, lynching Pix would have the benefit of giving Sonic the double vote if Pix flips town.


Note if I do get lynched it doesn't automatically get passed down to Son!c, DDS picked me as sheriff I believe in beginning of Day3. So I'm assuming I get same choice?

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:with his last breath DDS appointed Pixar as Sheriif


I can understand why it's not so believable, if I'm the best choice then so be it. I would like to ask why haven't you claimed yet swang?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby swang918 on Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:49 pm

*Pixar* wrote:Note if I do get lynched it doesn't automatically get passed down to Son!c, DDS picked me as sheriff I believe in beginning of Day3. So I'm assuming I get same choice?



Yes, you would pick your successor. I'm assuming that if we lynch you wrong, you would pick Sonic, since he is the most confirmed town out of the remaining farmers.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby swang918 on Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:59 pm

*Pixar* wrote:
I can understand why it's not so believable, if I'm the best choice then so be it. I would like to ask why haven't you claimed yet swang?


I am a Simple Villager. vanilla town.
Had put off claiming because our Defender is still hidden. But now I think, with the Defender most likely defended Devante last night and can't defend Devante again, benefit of claiming outweighs the loss to town, which is just one less Defender possibility for wolves to consider.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby degaston on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:02 pm

Unvote
We should have plenty of time to decide on a lynch for today.

Now that Pixar has claimed, things are getting interesting, and do not quite fit anymore. It appears that someone may have a fake claim.

I'm the Defender. I think naming who I defended is probably more helpful to the wolves than town, so I'll hold off on that.
I see Dev, Rag, Sonic, and myself as completely cleared.

Thor was vouched for by Ewe, so if he's a wolf, then Ewe must also be, so while I'm fine with Thor claiming, I think Swang's claim is the most important now.
I agree that Pixar's claim would be easy for a wolf to fake, but so would Ewe's.
I think Vot may as well claim, also.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby *Pixar* on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:05 pm

swang918 wrote:
*Pixar* wrote:Note if I do get lynched it doesn't automatically get passed down to Son!c, DDS picked me as sheriff I believe in beginning of Day3. So I'm assuming I get same choice?



Yes, you would pick your successor. I'm assuming that if we lynch you wrong, you would pick Sonic, since he is the most confirmed town out of the remaining farmers.


Being wolfs know each other and all, do you find LC was more experienced or inexperienced. He was REALLY high on getting my lynched on Day 2. Then Day 3 claimed seer and said Charle was wolf, which now we know he is town. If I was on the outside looking in, I wouldn't think he would target another fellow wolf one day and the next target a townie, just my thoughts idk. But yeah if you want to lynch me I'm for it, then have devante use his ability to investigate thor in my opinion. I will keep Son!c in mind for next Sheriff.

FP by deg
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby swang918 on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:06 pm

degaston wrote:Unvote
We should have plenty of time to decide on a lynch for today.

Now that Pixar has claimed, things are getting interesting, and do not quite fit anymore. It appears that someone may have a fake claim.

I'm the Defender. I think naming who I defended is probably more helpful to the wolves than town, so I'll hold off on that.
I see Dev, Rag, Sonic, and myself as completely cleared.

Thor was vouched for by Ewe, so if he's a wolf, then Ewe must also be, so while I'm fine with Thor claiming, I think Swang's claim is the most important now.
I agree that Pixar's claim would be easy for a wolf to fake, but so would Ewe's.
I think Vot may as well claim, also.


Why are Vot and Extreme not cleared?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby degaston on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:17 pm

swang918 wrote:
degaston wrote:Unvote
We should have plenty of time to decide on a lynch for today.

Now that Pixar has claimed, things are getting interesting, and do not quite fit anymore. It appears that someone may have a fake claim.

I'm the Defender. I think naming who I defended is probably more helpful to the wolves than town, so I'll hold off on that.
I see Dev, Rag, Sonic, and myself as completely cleared.

Thor was vouched for by Ewe, so if he's a wolf, then Ewe must also be, so while I'm fine with Thor claiming, I think Swang's claim is the most important now.
I agree that Pixar's claim would be easy for a wolf to fake, but so would Ewe's.
I think Vot may as well claim, also.


Why are Vot and Extreme not cleared?

There's a very remote chance that Vot is a wolf or he and EW are a scum-pair. It is possible for a wolf to expose another wolf in order to get town credit that he could then use to protect another fellow wolf. We don't even have a claim by Vot yet, and EW claims vanilla town, so there's no objective confirmation of their roles like there is for others.

I'm not saying I think it's likely, or even worth much discussion right now. Just something to keep in mind if the more likely suspects (like you :D) flip town.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:46 pm

SoN!c wrote:Look we need Thor to claim before we do anything else. But on the other hand i believe Ewebasher. It's a solid story just like Pixar. So Thor is town (no bear sniff).

So based on what we have here it must be Deg and Swang on top of the scum list now.. Sorry Swang, and sorry Deg. Just you two remaining.

Yes Dega Ragian, because i can see white wolf Loose killing wolf Deg as a very plausible scenario.. with the other wolf target probably getting defended..

Then Ragian gets the message (only) Dega was killed by the wolves (the white wolf is a wolf afterall) so he revives him..

In the rulebook it says "but every other night the white wolf wakes up alone and can eliminate a werewolf" = so that would have been on N2.. and you said "He was targeted by the wolves N2."..

So you're saying it's "very plausible" that the wolves targeted the one player who was defended AND that the white wolf went rogue this early? I think you need to look up plausible :lol:
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Devante on Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:52 pm

The Lord celebrated Pix's 72nd name day in grand style, congrats to us both old man. I have made you a cane and it is well on its way to you. Perhaps don't take too many steps in the meantime until it arrives.

On to more important things, at this point we are well into a mass claim, the remaining players who have not yet claimed need to come forward at this point. The main roles that would ideally be hidden have been claimed, seer, defender, so at this point there is no benefit to not make a claim. So, come forward with the remaining claims now those who haven't so we can then evaluate and figure out a lynch for today
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:42 pm

Ragian wrote:I think you need to look up plausible :lol:


(of an argument or statement) seeming reasonable

You gave Deg confirmed town status after you poisoned Charle and we have to say "Oh well, Ragian said so..so it must be true"..

It seemed reasonable Loose could have done that? Just keeping the door open on the possibility..after all we are looking for a wolf duo that would be helping each other is my idea?

So what is your idea on converted DDS appointing Pix? What would converted DDS do if there was another wolf among the farmers ? Who would he give the badge?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:46 pm

I love it that you actually looked it up <3

The "very" in front of it, however, is an overstatement.

Interesting with your second thoughts, though. If DDS knew who the wolves were at that point. Didn't he die as town?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 2:56 pm

Ragian wrote:I love it that you actually looked it up <3

The "very" in front of it, however, is an overstatement.

Interesting with your second thoughts, though. If DDS knew who the wolves were at that point. Didn't he die as town?


Upon his dead he had a "bitten" mod mark next to him..so the idea is he got bitten by a wolf as in converted.. and as such was a converted wolf on N1.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:02 pm

But it says that his allegiance is town. He probably hadn't turned yet (or something), which to me indicates that he wouldn't know the wolves just yet.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:06 pm

Ragian wrote:But it says that his allegiance is town. He probably hadn't turned yet (or something), which to me indicates that he wouldn't know the wolves just yet.


If he wouldnt knew the wolves he could have replaced Mpolo like you replacing Parked?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:13 pm

Do you know for a fact that he wasn't asked?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:15 pm

Ragian wrote:Do you know for a fact that he wasn't asked?


Ofcourse not. But what is your idea on DDS if he knew the other wolves? Knowing DDS wouldnt he have given the badge to a townie, even if he was a converted wolf?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:42 pm

DDS was town when he died according to the scene. My understanding of the game, barring a few obscure roles, is that if you're town, you don't know anyone else's alignment. Therefore, I think this is a rabbit hole.

If he were scum, I'd assume he'd give it to scum. But he wasn't. I don't know exactly what you want from me here :?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:45 pm

Ragian wrote:DDS was town when he died according to the scene. My understanding of the game, barring a few obscure roles, is that if you're town, you don't know anyone else's alignment. Therefore, I think this is a rabbit hole.

If he were scum, I'd assume he'd give it to scum. But he wasn't. I don't know exactly what you want from me here :?


Ok, so if he was town - what does "bitten" mean? Attacked and healed by a potion?
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby degaston on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:47 pm

@Sonic, Didn't this start because I was near the top of your scumlist? Do you still have any point that you're trying to make? If so, I have no idea what it is.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:49 pm

I don't know. All I'm saying is that if he was successfully converted, his allegiance would be different. Like my allegiance in The Thing.

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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby SoN!c on Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:59 pm

degaston wrote:@Sonic, Didn't this start because I was near the top of your scumlist? Do you still have any point that you're trying to make? If so, I have no idea what it is.


Just walking my dog around town and looking around here and there.. i liked Swangs attack on Pixars softclaim.

But my dog smells something is off but i can't figure out what she tries to tell me.
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby degaston on Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:03 pm

SoN!c wrote:But my dog smells something is off but i can't figure out what she tries to tell me.
Probably something like: "Hey, check this out! I found some more dogshit!" :lol:
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Re: The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Day 4

Postby Ragian on Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:04 pm

I'll get a post in tomorrow morning, but we're heading back to Denmark, so don't get any knickers in a twist if I'm not responding immediately if called upon.

For what it's worth, I think the rest should claim. Especially Thor.

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