Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.
I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.
That would actually be a pretty interesting research case, going back and looking at all the game histories and see what % of the time scum are lynched day 1. My guess is it's actually worse than random, because scum won't lynch their own, and are more likely to gang up on a town, so my guess is it's more likely for town to get lynched than averages would suggest. However, the information gained from the voting patterns, even if it's a town lynched day 1, help make for better lynches day 2 etc... without a day 1 lynch, a day 2 lynch probably won't have any better odds than a normal day 1 lynch, unless a cop or something got pretty lucky.
With all that said... because this is a majority lynch only rather than a plurality lynch, it's unfortunately unlikely for anyone other than an absent person to get lynched today, unless someone seriously messes up. I recall very very few day 1 majority lynches here, probably one reason why a lot of mods use plurality for lynching here.
