Civilization Mafia - Town Victory!

[Fircoal]

Chart:



A couple of thoughts that I had.

First off here is the claimed nations:

dakky21: Japan
madmitch: Egypt
ga7: Persia
strike wolf: America
Samlen: Roman
Ragian: Greece
nagerous: India
Fircoal: Aztecs
Skittles: Spain

So some interesting notes I found out by actually looking things up (a first for me lol). All of the claimed nations and all of the dead nations were present in Civ I expect for Persia. There were also 3 Civ I civs that were left unclaimed: Babylonian, Mongolian, and Zulu. I'm sorta surprised he didn't have the Mongols in there.

That does mean that everyone did try to dig into dangerous claims. So noting that the next most interesting thing is the order that everyone claimed. Reading through this is what I got as the claim order.

Claim Order:
1 Dakky
2 Fircoal
3 Ragian
4 DJ
5 Frenchie-chan
6 Skittles!
7 Samlen
8 Nagerous
9 Mitch
10 Strike
11 Tim

This is important because the later someone claims the less risk there is for a counterclaim. As Tim was the last one to claim he could put out any claim he wanted. As it turns out he really was Russia so that's moot, but it's important to note because even know he's dead this doesn't apply to Strike although Strike had the best chance of picking out a safe claim.


Some interesting Dakky posts I found:

I built the building that belongs in my nation and hopefully im right in my thought process and people will understand this.

Since all civilized nations have the same list of buildings and there are no buildings that belong to each separate nation (except maybe a World wonder, but you couldn't complete that yet) I think you don't know what are possible buildings to be built. Either say what you built or have my vote...

Why maybe dakky? There's no maybe about it.

a third party survivor just trying to stay out of the way of all you warmongering countries on the other side of the ocean.

for some reason i believe hotshot and for some reason i still think skoffin is scum.

But Dakky, you are an island in the middle of the pacific ocean. Why would you believe this other side of the ocean nonsense? Sure you're not in the Americas but you're not in Europe either.



The weird thing about Dakky is he basically softclaimed his nation right on Day 1. The important part is softclaim. It could be possible that it was a strategy to see if Japan was out there or not. If it's not it's easy for him to sink into a claim, but if someone brings it up he can easily backtrack and say he was just having some fun or trying to obsecure what he was. That said I feel like it's a bit too sneaky for Dakky. I'd expect that out of someone like Frenchie-chan. ;P


Also to rebute your theory more Nag. There were 3 posts inbetween when Hotshot claimed and when I counterclaimed. Think about it for a second. If we were both scum that'd mean we're now risking two scum members on one claim. Doesn't that sound like an unnecessarily large risk? Espeically since I wasn't in a bad position at the time. If I wanted to do that, why wouldn't I wait to try to make sure no one else counter claimed first before sneaking in there. And furthermore if that's the plan then why did it take me 2 posts to get there? Wouldn't I have started with that and declared it loudly? Instead I hinted towards it and only did so after I had already voted him. It just doesn't fit.

And if Masket gave the scum claims why would he only give 2 instead of 4? I mean Celts is such a bad claim it's very unlikely it could be given when there's Mongols and Babylonians out there. There's no reason to believe that the scum have fake claims, and thusly your theory comes down to two scum members risking themselves to give one of them a more solid claim... which puts them at pretty much the same footing as everyone else. It's way too risky of a plan to be good. (and you're talking about me, and I tend to be very risk adverse. Hence why I never actually used any of the wild Pokemon information from Pokemon Mafia even though it was in my best interest to do so. )


So where does that leave us? Here are my thoughts. I think that Naggy is good because I have a hard time believeing that a scum would bus two of their members so completely. Furthermore it is obviously true he's India. It's just what side did Masket make India. I could see an argument for either but at this moment I think he's town.

If Frenchie-chan is scum then Samlen must be also UNLESS he is a godfather.

Dakky and Strike can not both be scum.


The interesting part about watchers is it forces people to be honest about what they did. Last night all of Nag, Frenchie-chan, and Sam claimed that they visited Tim. Couldn't it be very likely that one of the three really did and one of them was the one who killed them? There is also Ragian who claimed afterwards who could have said he went there because he knew no one watched Tim. This is the power of a watcher and why I saved my night actions to declare last. It'd be risky to claim something else so that means it's very likely that one of them did visit Tim.

In Nag's defense he was told to do so by me and my plan so I don't suspect him as much as I do the other three.

This I find interesting:

Instead of spying maybe Chu could do something else than watching someone next night, I feel like this would be enough for me, especially because he was adamant on benga also. It's not the only lighthouse in the world, man. It does make sense to use the power that way in any case.

As I'm not sure how it'd help town to have one less watcher. The watcher is a powerful power.

That also said I'm not sure if I can. It depends if my building last night got built or not. Otherwise... I'm very limited in what I can do.


As it boils down this is how I'd put it:

People who I'm suspicous of: Strike, Frenchie-chan, Sam
People who I'm not sure about: Ragian, Dakky
People who I'm pretty sure are good: Naggy, Mitch, Skittles!

I explained Naggy above.
Iirc Mitch townslipped Day 1 and it's kinda obvious that he's town.
And Skittles! is correct that his actions have all checked out. Furthermore his story of the night buildings seems correct as Masket is in the process of doing the same thing to me right now. > > I sent him a pm asking about it though so hopefully I'll have that up and running so I can build something else tonight.

Strike and Frenchie-chan both gave good notes about the bunkers but I'm not so sure about them due to the way they've played and the other actions they've done. I also find that going bunker than wonder seems a bit weird to me although I guess it makes some sense.

*shrugs* At this point I'm most compelled to vote Strike but I could be convienced on any of the people who I don't think are good.

[dakky21]

Just a small request Chu. I already learned you're Chu from last game. But now, who the hell is Frencie chan?! Next time at least write once who it is or write it in brackets. Thanks.

[Skittles!]

Just a small request Chu. I already learned you're Chu from last game. But now, who the hell is Frencie chan?! Next time at least write once who it is or write it in brackets. Thanks.

Frenchie is ga7. Old nicknames, sorry.

So it seems like there are 3 people willing to vote strike, but also a number of people who want to vote Dakky. Samlen is also up for consideration, it seems like everyone else is safe. With the countdown mechanic I'm pretty sure 3 would be enough for a lynch.

They mention their character, but it was the wrong character (It is Augustus Caesar in Civ 5, not Julius, but it's truly nitpicking.)
I don't know, there's lots of pros and possible cons about samlen. He's been very forthright about building a spy network, but he had actually visited someone that was killed at night.

Weird it seems that google has failed me. My reverse image search said best guess was julius caeser civ V but if I look a couple links underneath it it says augustus... would never have known if you hadn't pointed it out. As for investigating Tim, he seemed suspicious and I didn't think that he would've been targeted for a kill last night \o/

Can you give your thoughts on who you think is scum? I don't think you've really lent into the conversation with your thoughts, especially when we are stuck in a pickle like now.

[strike wolf]

So I think the claim that scum are more likely to claim later doesn't really hold up very well in this game.

I try to be coy with info. Blurting it out rashly rarely helps town. Perhaps I've been too coy at times.

Answer me this: by the time I claimed, it was fairly clear what certain buildings did even for scum. What wouldn't be clear to me if I was scum is that there were any roles that wouldn't have their effect revealed until a later age. Don't you think it would be rather risky for me to say that without anyone else coming forward with similar info? Rage's statements about the same regarding the bunker supports my claim and I feel certain if asked, GA would back us both up. The safe play would have been to just claim bunker and been less than specific about what it was If someone called me out on it, a bunker having a limited bullet protection would have been a safe bet.

Why bunker wonder? Well I may not have ended on the correct Lynch day 1 but I had been vocal and was planning to continue to be vocal. If I was going to commit to any multi-night project (the plan was to try to get an idea of what others were building in the morning and plan n2 accordingly) I wanted to build something that could contribute to helping me survive long enough to actualay finish any such project and a bunker seemed to be the most likely choice for some protection. Choosing the wonder as I said was a mix of feeling like it had to be useful for the price, that trying to start it any later night would be too late even if no one else had started it and a bit of curiosity.

Oh and Skittles! I'm pretty sure the wonder is still in play, it only says in the pm that it's out of the game for other nations if someone completes it. Dj didn't complete it.

[Fircoal]

So I think the claim that scum are more likely to claim later doesn't really hold up very well in this game.

I try to be coy with info. Blurting it out rashly rarely helps town. Perhaps I've been too coy at times.

Answer me this: by the time I claimed, it was fairly clear what certain buildings did even for scum. What wouldn't be clear to me if I was scum is that there were any roles that wouldn't have their effect revealed until a later age. Don't you think it would be rather risky for me to say that without anyone else coming forward with similar info? Rage's statements about the same regarding the bunker supports my claim and I feel certain if asked, GA would back us both up. The safe play would have been to just claim bunker and been less than specific about what it was If someone called me out on it, a bunker having a limited bullet protection would have been a safe bet.

I can vouch for what you were hinting at, it just seems like a smaller thing to me. I have no idea what barbarian powers there are but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some way to get info. That also being it's the only thing I remember about you that makes you seem town. I do understand trying to be coy with info as I have been doing the same.

I really disagree that it doesn't hold up in this game. It's a game where the wrong claim can mean certain death, and there's no way to really tell a good claim from another. The fact that so many claimed Civ I nations makes me believe there was benefit to claiming late. If it was more spread out then maybe scum could pick some on the edge nation, but as it stands I don't think there was any easy pick. The only really suspicious claim is Frenchie-chan's Persia imo.

(I'd also say America is suspicious but that's as someone whose never played Civ. From what I read it's in the game since the first one so it doesn't seem that suspicious but it certainly wasn't a nation I was expecting to be a forefront of the game. But based off of the game itself and not my random thoughts it feels like a safe enough claim. It's a matter of what Masket thought.)

[strike wolf]

I would disagree with America being safe overall as Civ itself is a US based game with a Canadian born creator who lived most of his childhood years in Michigan.

Well I also was at the forefront of the Hotshot Lynch day 2 and 3.

[Samlen]

Can you give your thoughts on who you think is scum? I don't think you've really lent into the conversation with your thoughts, especially when we are stuck in a pickle like now.

If I go off of those who have claimed, my gut says Ragian.
Fircoal seems pretty clear as well as mitch, ga, and Nag. Everyone else I feel uncertain on some level.
Then again, if we open the possibilities then Fircoal could've had the celts claim planned with scum buddies to seem town and ga could be a Godfather and Nag could be a survivor (idek about mitch too much thinking).
To get a clearer idea, let's look at last night's (claimed) actions to see who could've killed Tim.

dakky21: War so no action possible
madmitch: Confirms that Skittles visited Strike
ga7: Blocked Tim
strike wolf: War so no action possible
Samlen: Investigated Tim
Ragian: Visits Skittles and sees no gun
nagerous: Sees Tim with a gun
Fircoal: Watched Tim visit Ragian
Skittles: Blocked Strike

Other than me, this leaves 3 candidates that could've easily lied about their night action. Ga, Ragian, Nag. If I believe that ga isn't a Godfather, and that Nag (who is pretty much confirmed Gandhi) isn't some weird 3p serial killer (highly unlikely), then that leaves Ragian as the most likely candidate to have killed Tim. Another (unlikely) possibility is that Mitch/Skittles are in cahoots and mitch 'confirmed' skittles action last night.
Now that I've actually spent more than 5 minutes thinking about this I'm wondering why I haven't voted Ragian sooner. (If this is wrong we need someone roleblocking Ga since that would raise Godfather chance significantly)

[strike wolf]

Do you have any opinion about what I said in regards to supporting Rage as town Sam?

[Minister Masket]

Masket:
2-I meant if they pick which of the scum does the NK action, not who they target?

Typically I like the 'de-facto leader' actually sending the action in.

Vote Count

dakky21 - 0
madmitch - 0
ga7 - 0
strike wolf - 0
Samlen - 0
Ragian - 1 (Samlen)
nagerous - 0
Fircoal - 0
Skittles - 0

Allowing for a full day, Day 5 effectively started on Monday, so on today (Thu) it takes 6 to Lynch!

[Fircoal]

I would disagree with America being safe overall as Civ itself is a US based game with a Canadian born creator who lived most of his childhood years in Michigan.

Well I also was at the forefront of the Hotshot Lynch day 2 and 3.

Just so you know I'm not arguing that you're bad because of that I'm just saying America is not what I would have personally thought as the forefront of a nation in this game. Mostly due to it being a relatively new nation and culture in the grand scheme of things. But my thoughts on it are only relevant if Masket thinks the same, which I have no idea whether he does.

[Samlen]

Do you have any opinion about what I said in regards to supporting Rage as town Sam?

I used to think that we could clear people based off of their knowledge of buildings but too much information had been leaked by day 3/4 for us to catch any competent mafia member using this method. Clearing Ragian based off of his apparent bunker knowledge is iffy at best considering others had mentioned bunker beforehand and there was a mention of a building giving a passive ability before it was confirmed that the bunker did so. Besides, when I first read bunker in my PM I"d assumed it was a passive ability that let you survive an attack (like a bp vest) so it's not a stretch that Ragian would've assumed the same when he first saw it in thread. All of this is why I chose to narrow possible barbarians based off of claimed actions since building knowledge is pretty much all out there/can be looked up.

[Ragian]

Ragian didn't first "see it in the thread". He built one the first night because he wasn't on the scum lynch and feared a vig or similar. Having completed it, I was told that I couldn't use it for a million years anyway, so yeah, there's that.

Now, I don't blame Samlen as such. I think we're at an impasse. When stuck like this, I usually look at whatever is the least intertwined. For Samlen, that's probably me. I would just mention that I claimed Greece. I was quite confident that that claim would make me instant town in everyone's eyes. That kind of makes me suspect Samlen a bit more.

Anyway, back to the razor. I'll vote dakky. One point is that he has visited dead people (like Samlen FYI), but before reading through Chu's massive post, I looked at the claimed countries, and for some reason japan stuck out to me. I haven't really played Civ, so I'm not too cocky on that point, but combined with the fact that dakky visited Skoffin the night she died does it for me.

The other claim that stuck out to me was America.

[Skittles!]

Ragian didn't first "see it in the thread". He built one the first night because he wasn't on the scum lynch and feared a vig or similar. Having completed it, I was told that I couldn't use it for a million years anyway, so yeah, there's that.

Now, I don't blame Samlen as such. I think we're at an impasse. When stuck like this, I usually look at whatever is the least intertwined. For Samlen, that's probably me. I would just mention that I claimed Greece. I was quite confident that that claim would make me instant town in everyone's eyes. That kind of makes me suspect Samlen a bit more.

Anyway, back to the razor. I'll vote dakky. One point is that he has visited dead people (like Samlen FYI), but before reading through Chu's massive post, I looked at the claimed countries, and for some reason japan stuck out to me. I haven't really played Civ, so I'm not too cocky on that point, but combined with the fact that dakky visited Skoffin the night she died does it for me.

The other claim that stuck out to me was America.

Samlen and Dakky stick out to me atm because when Hotshot was obviously scum, they were both hesitant to vote for him. Strike I'm not voting for rn because, as he mentioned, he was in the forefront of lynching hotshot. However, hotshot was obviously scum and was easy to throw under the bus.

[Ragian]

Dakky also made a very self-preserving move yesterday. That didn't scream town.

[dakky21]

Dakky also made a very self-preserving move yesterday. That didn't scream town.

Yes, because between two evils, I choose the lesser one. If/when I get lynched and you find out I was telling the truth all along, you will understand why I went to war and everyone would do the same so it's not a selfish move IMO.

[Ragian]

Possibly crippling another townie is, though.

[dakky21]

Anyway, as I said, if I get again close to lynch, I'll go into war again with someone. It is self preservation as you said and I may cripple another townie... but I can also cripple scum. You afraid Rage I'll go into war with you?

[Samlen]

Ragian didn't first "see it in the thread". He built one the first night because he wasn't on the scum lynch and feared a vig or similar. Having completed it, I was told that I couldn't use it for a million years anyway, so yeah, there's that.

Now, I don't blame Samlen as such. I think we're at an impasse. When stuck like this, I usually look at whatever is the least intertwined. For Samlen, that's probably me. I would just mention that I claimed Greece. I was quite confident that that claim would make me instant town in everyone's eyes. That kind of makes me suspect Samlen a bit more.

Anyway, back to the razor. I'll vote dakky. One point is that he has visited dead people (like Samlen FYI), but before reading through Chu's massive post, I looked at the claimed countries, and for some reason japan stuck out to me. I haven't really played Civ, so I'm not too cocky on that point, but combined with the fact that dakky visited Skoffin the night she died does it for me.

The other claim that stuck out to me was America.

Maybe this is just me but greece stuck out as a claim more than japan/america (And I HAVE played both civ V and VI). Regardless, I'm looking at actions not claims to find scum because each of the current country claims are pretty viable. Dakky's in-thread actions haven't seemed very town-like but he went to war so unless barbarians can take actions while warring, he did not carry out the barbarian kill last night. Since there are probably two barbarians left Dakky could be evil but it makes more sense to look at what can be thought out logically to find the other barbarian and deal with Dakky the next day.

[dakky21]

Maybe this is just me but greece stuck out as a claim more than japan/america (And I HAVE played both civ V and VI). Regardless, I'm looking at actions not claims to find scum because each of the current country claims are pretty viable. Dakky's in-thread actions haven't seemed very town-like but he went to war so unless barbarians can take actions while warring, he did not carry out the barbarian kill last night. Since there are probably two barbarians left Dakky could be evil but it makes more sense to look at what can be thought out logically to find the other barbarian and deal with Dakky the next day.

Did you just said "let's mislynch town today and keep dakky alive so we can mislynch town again tomorrow" ?

Looks like to me ...

Vote Samlen

[madmitch]

I wanted to go after Dakky but Iwas talked out of it and it made sense, Him declaring war is Dakky trying to save his ass and I do not blame him,I believe Samlen is a much better target and he is just as guilty of visiting some and they died like Dakky but Samlem is not telling us anything new and he is hiding something ,VOTE SAMLEN

[nagerous]

Instead of spying maybe Chu could do something else than watching someone next night, I feel like this would be enough for me, especially because he was adamant on benga also. It's not the only lighthouse in the world, man. It does make sense to use the power that way in any case.

As I'm not sure how it'd help town to have one less watcher. The watcher is a powerful power.

That also said I'm not sure if I can. It depends if my building last night got built or not. Otherwise... I'm very limited in what I can do.


As it boils down this is how I'd put it:

People who I'm suspicous of: Strike, Frenchie-chan, Sam
People who I'm not sure about: Ragian, Dakky
People who I'm pretty sure are good: Naggy, Mitch, Skittles!

I explained Naggy above.
Iirc Mitch townslipped Day 1 and it's kinda obvious that he's town.
And Skittles! is correct that his actions have all checked out. Furthermore his story of the night buildings seems correct as Masket is in the process of doing the same thing to me right now. > > I sent him a pm asking about it though so hopefully I'll have that up and running so I can build something else tonight.

Strike and Frenchie-chan both gave good notes about the bunkers but I'm not so sure about them due to the way they've played and the other actions they've done. I also find that going bunker than wonder seems a bit weird to me although I guess it makes some sense.

*shrugs* At this point I'm most compelled to vote Strike but I could be convienced on any of the people who I don't think are good.[/quote]

Cut down the post a bit but in response to your rebuttal, the first point is completely mute. My theory hinged upon the idea that scum had been given fake claims and I don't think that is the stupidest idea presented out there. It would be inherently sensible to give scum a hand particularly if they were unaware at first instance of the buildings concepts which appears to be the case.m

The supporting evidence to the fake claim theory being that the only counterclaim we had was your one, where hotshot made a really strange post as a claim at a point when regardless of his claim he was getting hanged. It is possible that all scum had fake claims, some weaker than others, maybe benga had the celts, you had the Mongols and hotshot had the Aztecs. It was decided the Aztecs was the strongest claim and the plan set in motion could be there is a 4th Mafia member like Dakky who had the Japanese.

Agree celts is a pretty weak claim but maybe Masket is a fan of the Celts seeing as they are Brits idk . Weren't they in civ II?

[nagerous]

Damn my post broke hopefully it is clear where I start.

[ga7]

Quick post as I won't be able to do a proper one until sunday but had many epiphanies:

The watcher is a powerful power.

I don't see watcher as an end all be all because it's way easier to pick someone you're suspicious of and track them to a NK than trying to pick somone you think will be NKed and hope only one person visits it. It is slightly more useful in this game because we need to be able to verify claim actions but it still can be pretty useless. For instance, I think picking Ragian to watch is a weird choice. And, as stated by Nag, if you only plan to use that one power to always claim your action last it becomes pretty scummy. But come to think of it, the dead scum weren't vanilla so only using only one power and stating the truth would be an interesting way for scum to get around the action massclaiming also.
Anyway, I think I need a full reread but I have a hard time really suspecting you because of the benga lynch. I agree Hotshot seemed like an easy one to buss, but from what I recall many people were fully believing benga's lousy fakeclaim so...

Dakky's in-thread actions haven't seemed very town-like but he went to war so unless barbarians can take actions while warring, he did not carry out the barbarian kill last night. Since there are probably two barbarians left Dakky could be evil but it makes more sense to look at what can be thought out logically to find the other barbarian and deal with Dakky the next day.

Wait a minute... Wouldn't it make perfect sense for barbarians to be able to do actions while warring? I don't know why I didn't think of it before, but nothing from actions actually proves Dakky didn't do anything. His only confirmed action was visiting Skoffin, then he promptly went to war again. We already know having a gun or not is probably useless info. If war doesn't stop barbarians from killing (and why would it?), Dakky is again the best case in my eyes.

Vote Dakky

[nagerous]

What advantage would dakky get from killing his only ally Tim?

[Samlen]

Maybe this is just me but greece stuck out as a claim more than japan/america (And I HAVE played both civ V and VI). Regardless, I'm looking at actions not claims to find scum because each of the current country claims are pretty viable. Dakky's in-thread actions haven't seemed very town-like but he went to war so unless barbarians can take actions while warring, he did not carry out the barbarian kill last night. Since there are probably two barbarians left Dakky could be evil but it makes more sense to look at what can be thought out logically to find the other barbarian and deal with Dakky the next day.

Did you just said "let's mislynch town today and keep dakky alive so we can mislynch town again tomorrow" ?

Looks like to me ...

Vote Samlen

I'm saying that I think Ragian is evil and that I have spies that can determine if you are town or not by tomorrow. You appear to just be assuming Ragian is town yet have no proof. I may not have definitive proof that Ragian is evil but at least I gave an explanation why I thought so. You gave practically no reason and it feels like you are just jumping on someone to lynch... which mitch jumped on right away with just as little of explanation.