[Endgame] Firefly Mafia

[strike wolf]

So...no one has anything to say?

[Anarkistsdream]

So...no one has anything to say?

Unvote

First off, since you decided to play better than Streaker...

Secondly, I agree with the Doomyoshi argument more than anyone else's.

It has just seemed like he has been pushing and pushing very small things to see if anyone will bite, but not enough to be able to be held responsible if something 'negative' came from it.

[safariguy5]

So...no one has anything to say?

I am unsure about Vio being scummy because I pinned her to Iliad on Day 1. Course, she has backed off the case a little but, but still is willing to pursue it given enough support. Unless she knows he's a town PR, it's very risky to blindly stake your life to an unknown townie as mafia.

I do think the Yoshi thing is a bit more interesting, he did seem quite nervous about being possibly NKed by me last night, and has offered to claim twice.

unvote vote Yoshi

[DoomYoshi]

I can't offer an actual case on anyone since there aren't any. I say we are fine just going for random lynches. If you guys want to randomly lynch me, that's fine, just don't NK me.

[strike wolf]

Hmm well that's an interesting comment. I have to know though...why do you think it's such a good idea to random lynch? that sounds like the opposite of a good idea.

[VioIet]

Hmm well that's an interesting comment. I have to know though...why do you think it's such a good idea to random lynch? that sounds like the opposite of a good idea.

This struck me as an odd post. Here is why:

You make a post, FOS'ing me, doom and tal.

You FOS'd me because I called commander out for wanting a random lynch of those who refused to mass claim.

Now you call out doomyoshi for supporting a random lynch?

You didn't tell commander that it sounded opposite of a good idea, when he suggested it.

I just don't understand this line of reasoning.

[strike wolf]

Hmm well that's an interesting comment. I have to know though...why do you think it's such a good idea to random lynch? that sounds like the opposite of a good idea.

This struck me as an odd post. Here is why:

You make a post, FOS'ing me, doom and tal.

You FOS'd me because I called commander out for wanting a random lynch of those who refused to mass claim.

Now you call out doomyoshi for supporting a random lynch?

You didn't tell commander that it sounded opposite of a good idea, when he suggested it.

I just don't understand this line of reasoning.

Actually I called you out for two reasons (well three). One is Tal's sudden change of heart about your character which unless he can explain it strikes me as probably one of two things:

a. he is scum and you are scum and he's trying to defend a scum buddy or
B. he is scum but you are town and he is trying to position himself to earn brownie points with the town.

I FOSed partially as a. could be true.

The second reason is because commander didn't even suggest we should random lynch he suggest we should pressure based on those who haven't claimed yet, which you tried to make into him calling for a mass claim. THat struck me as a huge leap to get that from his post.

The third reason is your day 1 behavior where you vehemently stuck with two odd cases. one where you relentlessly pursued Iliad despite there really not being any evidence and your insistence that Sheep wanted to hammer when it was a pretty ridiculous suggestion.

[DoomYoshi]

Hmm well that's an interesting comment. I have to know though...why do you think it's such a good idea to random lynch? that sounds like the opposite of a good idea.

According to saf, a confirmed townie there are 3-4 mafia left. Let's say there are 4. There could also be some other sort of 3rd-Party (maybe Vio is a lyncher for instance). It is basically 50/50 that we hit scum. EXCEPT we have one confirmed townie, and I know I am a townie. So now it jumps to 5/8, or a greater chance that we hit scum than not.

We don't actually know how many scum there are, of course, but nobody is willling to go with the few leads we do have (case in point #1: nobody cared about the whole Iliad/Vio thing. Case in point #2: there were no replies to your long post). I think there are enough people either on Vio's or Iliad's side that no case will be possible in that regard. Between the people that just don't believe in it and the people that actively don't want that to occur, a majority will never be reached. I don't want to be lynched, and I certainly don't want to be NK'ed.

I am, however, intrigued in your Talapus case. Tomorrow I will look through and see if I can find anything myself.

PS: I don't exactly "want" a random lynch, I am merely trying to get some BWs going to stimulate discussion. I am not saying a random is better than a well thought out one, just that a random is better than none at this point.

[strike wolf]

3 or 4 mafia total would be understandable but one mafia is dead so I only think it's 2 MAYBE 3 left...

[safariguy5]

3 or 4 mafia total would be understandable but one mafia is dead so I only think it's 2 MAYBE 3 left...

Not to mention we killed an SKer too, so mafia can't be too numerous.

Like I said with the Vio/Iliad thing, the only evidence Vio had was gut instinct and she was willing to take the fall if Iliad didn't turn up scum. Nobody else seemed to give it much support and I don't think she's willing to continue doing that at this point.

[DoomYoshi]

So...no one has anything to say?

Now that you are replacing Streaker, do you understand why he was on my townie list? It doesn't seem like you do, considering you are voting for me. This is very suspicious behaviour. Nark has also claimed, which brings mafia to about 1/3 to 1/2 of all remaining people. Not terrible odds.

[strike wolf]

I haven't actually voted for you but since you seem to be trying to force my hand. Yes Doomyoshi I know who you claim to be. The fact that you are so desperate to let everyone know that I am town, I am not sure but it strikes me as highly scummy that you have. The idea of not pointing out townies still applies even if you have factual proof of who the person is. It does not serve to town's tactical advantage to make lists of townies. I also know that the character you claimed only appeared in one episode and is small enough that I do not feel it is a solid role claim combined with your suspicious behavior, I still find you worth questioning.

[Talapus]

So...no one has anything to say?

Oh strike, we've discussed this before. You want me to answer questions and acions I did as my previous character. As I have said before and as you pointed out previously, I can't do that. Why you are looking for that explanation now and FOSing me for something we both agreed I can't do, I have no idea. I can't clarify anything you want to know from my previous role, thats a given. So to debate my actions from one character to the next on my end is a moot point as I can only clarify my current actions.

So, I will say that after coming back into the game I noticed Vio pretty much completely dropped arguing with illy and the "case" against him. She has pretty much backed off completely and it appears that it was based on very little to begin with. So I see no reason to continue going after her for the time being since she has explained and there hae to be at least 3 scum in this game still. The fact that so many players hae been quite until recently replaced means that aenues of discussion will now open back up. So, I hope one of those discussions will lead us to a better target,

I find it remarkably interesting though that you Stike agreed earlier that I shouldn't discuss my previous character but once you replace some inactie in the game, you are all about me explaining my current actions compared to my previous ones. Nothing personal mate, but that seems like a complete 180 from your earlier stance. Which looks a little like a scum move trying hard to point a finger at some less then scummy targets. Whats the matter, come back and get a role thats harder to play at this stage in the game?

I will throw and FOS in your direction for the time being as your argument seems a large departure from your previous characters game play. As for you thinking you know who Yoshi is, not sure how you' come to that conclusion already, but I do agree that town should no longer out temselves as it will hurt us in the long run.

[strike wolf]

So...no one has anything to say?

Oh strike, we've discussed this before. You want me to answer questions and acions I did as my previous character. As I have said before and as you pointed out previously, I can't do that. Why you are looking for that explanation now and FOSing me for something we both agreed I can't do, I have no idea. I can't clarify anything you want to know from my previous role, thats a given. So to debate my actions from one character to the next on my end is a moot point as I can only clarify my current actions.

So, I will say that after coming back into the game I noticed Vio pretty much completely dropped arguing with illy and the "case" against him. She has pretty much backed off completely and it appears that it was based on very little to begin with. So I see no reason to continue going after her for the time being since she has explained and there hae to be at least 3 scum in this game still. The fact that so many players hae been quite until recently replaced means that aenues of discussion will now open back up. So, I hope one of those discussions will lead us to a better target,

I find it remarkably interesting though that you Stike agreed earlier that I shouldn't discuss my previous character but once you replace some inactie in the game, you are all about me explaining my current actions compared to my previous ones. Nothing personal mate, but that seems like a complete 180 from your earlier stance. Which looks a little like a scum move trying hard to point a finger at some less then scummy targets. Whats the matter, come back and get a role thats harder to play at this stage in the game?

I will throw and FOS in your direction for the time being as your argument seems a large departure from your previous characters game play. As for you thinking you know who Yoshi is, not sure how you' come to that conclusion already, but I do agree that town should no longer out temselves as it will hurt us in the long run.

I do not expect you to really discuss your night actions no. That's ridiculous and a violation of the rules as I understand them. However actual game play behavior I feel is fair game. I saw a contradiction in your behavior from earlier with no reason that I could make out and I wanted you to explain it. As for Yoshi, I would rather not get into that as well but it is an avenue that he is seemingly unwilling to let me take.

[DoomYoshi]

I haven't actually voted for you but since you seem to be trying to force my hand. Yes Doomyoshi I know who you claim to be. The fact that you are so desperate to let everyone know that I am town, I am not sure but it strikes me as highly scummy that you have. The idea of not pointing out townies still applies even if you have factual proof of who the person is. It does not serve to town's tactical advantage to make lists of townies. I also know that the character you claimed only appeared in one episode and is small enough that I do not feel it is a solid role claim combined with your suspicious behavior, I still find you worth questioning.

I wasn't actually trying to push you down that road. Ok, no more lists of townies (except in Clue). Sorry to push you that far I hope the game is not lost now.

[Talapus]

I do not expect you to really discuss your night actions no. That's ridiculous and a violation of the rules as I understand them. However actual game play behavior I feel is fair game. I saw a contradiction in your behavior from earlier with no reason that I could make out and I wanted you to explain it. As for Yoshi, I would rather not get into that as well but it is an avenue that he is seemingly unwilling to let me take.

I never once said night actions dude. I can kinda see how you assume that, but never once in my post was that mentioned and never would I consider giving that info out...thats just a given. Looking back at your two thoughts as to why my behavior may or may not have changed however I notice you seem to lack your usual thought out ideas to share with all of us as the two options you presented are most certainly not the only ones plausible. I don't know strike, I really can't put my finger on it, but since you've come back...something is off with you. I'm not sure if I should chalk it up to an off day or if the newer role is a complete 180 from town. But ya, something isn't right with you.

[edocsil]

I do not expect you to really discuss your night actions no. That's ridiculous and a violation of the rules as I understand them. However actual game play behavior I feel is fair game. I saw a contradiction in your behavior from earlier with no reason that I could make out and I wanted you to explain it. As for Yoshi, I would rather not get into that as well but it is an avenue that he is seemingly unwilling to let me take.

I wouldn't Modkill for anything besides directly quoting role PMs, just wanted to make sure that was understood.

[safariguy5]

I do not expect you to really discuss your night actions no. That's ridiculous and a violation of the rules as I understand them. However actual game play behavior I feel is fair game. I saw a contradiction in your behavior from earlier with no reason that I could make out and I wanted you to explain it. As for Yoshi, I would rather not get into that as well but it is an avenue that he is seemingly unwilling to let me take.

I never once said night actions dude. I can kinda see how you assume that, but never once in my post was that mentioned and never would I consider giving that info out...thats just a given. Looking back at your two thoughts as to why my behavior may or may not have changed however I notice you seem to lack your usual thought out ideas to share with all of us as the two options you presented are most certainly not the only ones plausible. I don't know strike, I really can't put my finger on it, but since you've come back...something is off with you. I'm not sure if I should chalk it up to an off day or if the newer role is a complete 180 from town. But ya, something isn't right with you.

Oh god, I didn't know Tal was a psychiatrist too. Sure, strike was a very town role before, but this whole "acting out Mal" thing might be a cover for less pro town sentiments.

[strike wolf]

Its fairly fruitless drawing attention to the possible town roles you could be, so I don't usually include those possibilities in my analysis. Plus I usually find that when there is a change in behavior after a replacement from an earlier role it is most commonly due to change in alignment so it is at the very least worth questioning.

@safari: I think that womans planning on shooting me again (mal reynolds episode 1)...sorry couldn't resist. Really I am only doing the mal reynolds thing in my spare time.

[ShaggyDan]

@Strike: A change in playstyle could also result in a change of town role as well though, you would play a town VT differently to a town Cop.

Okay so in my reads of people I have 2 confirmed town (Saf and myself from my pov) and 2 I'm fairly sure are town. That leaves 6. Out of those six I'd say it's definite there are at least 2 scum (possibly 3).

Looking at Illiad and Violet, I'd be willing to bet that they're not both the same side of scum (i.e. they're not both mafia). So let's say we have 2 mafia; off sheer random chance the odds of either one of them being mafia are 1/3.

Looking at [/u]randomly[/u] deciding the allignment of any 2 the following are the odds;

- Both being town: 16/36
- One of each: 16/36
- Both being scum: 4/36

If we believe that they are both not mafia that increases our chances of hitting town (16/32 for each possibility). With a 50% chance that we're killing 2 town.

If we look at the possibility of 3 mafia the following probabilities are true:

- Both being town: 2/8
- One of each: 4/8
- Both being scum: 2/8

Once you take out the possibility of both being scum the ratio's are similar as to before, with a slightly higher chance of one each. The odds are again against us hitting scum compared to any other two.

My point is deciding to lynch and kill both Illiad and Violet leaves us with a lower chance of hitting scum than if we were to pick 2 other random people (if you believe that they are both not mafia).

I actually started this post hoping to come to a decision to lynch one and shoot the other (because of lack of leads) but after crunching the numbers it looks like that hurts us more than helps us. I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch one or the other, but we shouldn't look to lynch and then kill the other based off the case (even more-so now that Violet has largely retracted her case).

End of number crunching waffle.

And now onto something slightly more relevent:

Anyone else think I should stir up some excitement and discussion by just claiming with no provocation?

Offers to claim for no reason at all. There are better ways to get discussion going than this, subtle push for a massclaim perhaps?

I can't offer an actual case on anyone since there aren't any. I say we are fine just going for random lynches. If you guys want to randomly lynch me, that's fine, just don't NK me.

This struck me as odd. I'm not sure why you'd advocate to be the target for a random lynch...

Not putting forward a FoS or a vote... just a little confused about your actions. For the rest of Day 3 you've been trying to get cases and discussion going which is town-like I guess, couldn't pick anything out of your D3 posts other than that.

Should be able to re-read focusing on someone else shortly. Sorry about not posting more, the amount of replacements plus exams with uni have made it hard to keep up to date on this game.

[strike wolf]

You'd be correct in saying their overall play style may differ slightly from one role to the next but switching your position on a particular player is a bit more complicated. Now that being said tal did offer a reason for why his behavior towards vio has changed. A reason I can believe if it fits in context with the thread. I do not wish to comment on it yet beyond that as I am still working out various particulars on that subject or in other words I have not sufficiently reread everything that has been said since day one at the earliest point tal's shift in perspective may have begun to the point of the post in question where it was made clear his perspective on vio had indeed changed. Now to the point of percentages. I will go ahead and trust that your odds are correct (I have never been a big fan of using math in mafia. Beyond figuring out that if we have 5 people left and two mafia a mislynch means losing especially regarding the potential of a random lynch and prefer to go by feel and actual scum tells).

[Anarkistsdream]

I'm gonna be honest, guys... I am lost as HELL in this game. So many back and forths and counter arguments and counter counter arguments and everything else... It's getting a little old.

There are a few of you that I trust, so I am more than likely gonna buy into whatever those few of you say until it bites me in the ass.

[safariguy5]

Honestly, none of the possible candidates seem like particularly strong reasons would compel me to vote them.

In my mind, the Cleared people are:
me
Fircoal
Nark (although less so than me and chu)

My possible suspects at this point:

1. Yoshi (odd offers to claim)
2. Iliad (but only if Vio decides that is the lynch she wants to push)
3. Strike/Tal (Interesting arguments from both sides, but a lot of posting without much quoting, also, character play style borders a bit on WIFOM for me)

Like I said, not real compelling cases up, but those are my sentiments right now.

[Commander9]

Will re-read and post when I'll have more time. Apologies, but I barely had any time for any mafia games recently.

[strike wolf]

Ok so reviewing the posts in question I can see what you were talking about Tal and while I do not feel it is enough to completely abandon my reasoning but it is enough that I do not feel that the case on you especially with this latest information warrants you being the focus of the lynch. Which leaves me with Doomyoshi and to a lesser extent vio and possibly shaggydan though from what i've seen in another game his behavior may just be his playing style...