Power Role Draft Mafia - Town Wins!

[Ragian]

*yells from the grave*

It's Ragian, dang it! R-A-G-I-A-N

[ghostly447]

Mixed with spiesr and alts long mix of posting wouldn't of make a little bit of sense for, say, 2 Mafia to take the Mafia only roles, pick a random number that is a very common number and then compare their lists somehow and try to figure out the most important roles and kill them? I have never played this setup but does that sound like a logical plan?

[pmchugh]

Unfortunately my post was based on pure speculation as I got a relatively high numbered choice. It seems almost everyone got one of their first few choices, I certainly didn't expect that at the start of the game.

As for the role lists I would ask everyone to check their list and ensure that roleblocker was not higher on their list than the role they got. There is a decent chance that mafia doubled up on numbers and took ninja/framer so that they could be at the bottom of the list, still get their first picks and provide a WIFOMy type defense. One that I would like to point out, was already mentioned by shield:

Alright, PMC chewed me out now I gotta post something to make up for it

So I was thinking:
Mafia could talk before D1 so they probably coordinated their numbers to try to get their top picks. THey would have did it so they didn't duplicate their numbers, but other than that what town chooses is rather random and uncontrollable. So they might be scattered around this list of players (15 players means probably around 1 mafia per group of four):

Group 1:
Alt1978 – 11
MoB – 14
Djfireside – 17
Soundman – 22

Group 2:
Nagerous - 6
Dazza – 6
Somethingclever – 9
Edocsil – 9

Group 3:
Pmchugh – 1
Ragian – 1
Freezie – 1

Group 4:
Spiesr – 7
Everywhere – 7
Ghostly447 – 7
Shield – 7

It is possible I'm completely wrong and mafia are scattered unevenly throuhgout this list, but there's one thing for sure: unless mafia are sincerely stupid or severely cunning no more than 1 mafia exists in group 4, or group 3; and no more than 2 mafia in group 2. (this assumes they all picked different numbers)

So with that in mind, let's consider what roles would likely be high on the mafia's list:

1 - cop - doubtful, only helpful to keep town from getting info
2 - watcher - unuseful
3 - tracker - unuseful
4 - doctor - useful incase they don't get vig
5 - roleblocker - useful, standard mafia role
6 - vigilante - very useful, provides second kill
7 - bomb (works both when lynched and nightkilled) - useful as it makes sure a townie dies when he does
8 - JOAT (1-shot cop, doctor and vigilante) - semi-useful
9 - inventor (1-shot rolecop, roleblock and hide - only dies if hiding behind a player that is killed) - semi-useful
10 - busdriver - useful in screwing up town
11 - commuter (cannot commute in back to back nights) - unuseful
12 - bulletproof (also immune to bomb) - obviously handy, especially if they don't have vig
13 - doublevoter (second vote is a secret "???" PMed to me) - mildly useful
14 - 1-shot governor (can stop any lynch, including his own - day ends if he uses his power) - useful
15 - loved person (needs one more vote than necessary in order to be lynched) - could be more useful
16 and 17 - 2 masons (town only) - can't have it
18 - framer (mafia only) - useful only if town has cop. The very existance of it means that mafia cop can say some townie is scum and then say the framer did it. But this assumed the cop is mafia, which I find unlikely
19 - ninja (mafia only - will not be seen by watchers nor trackers) - useful, but like the framer, it will cause problems in mass claims for the mafia. Perhaps the mafia would sell these two players out if they got stuck with these roles to save themselves. IDK

It looks like maybe 1 or 2 would have gotten their top pick, which means two of these roles would have gotten what they want. And then there's probably 2 who didn't get their first pick and probably ended up with a role.

Ok, so the role analysis is a little weak because I really don't know what roles mafia would want most, but I'm pretty sure my group separation analysis is pretty accurate. It's at least probable.

I need some more input about the probable mafia roles tho.

-SG7 ( )

In light of the fact mafia were the first ones to point this out, it cannot be used as a defense of anyone.

[spiesr]

In light of the fact mafia were the first ones to point this out, it cannot be used as a defense of anyone.

Good catch. Shield making this point certainly raises the possibility raises the possibility that it was at least something that the scum discussed whaterver decision they ended up making on the issue isn't certain, but it seems they definitely talked about it.

[Some7hingCLEVER]

The numbers Mason...WHAT DO THEY MEAN!!!!!


I had not considered the placement of the numbers. It was established that the scum were able to talk before sending their lists, and thus would probably pick different numbers. Probably, because it was suggest that they could then have two of their members pick the same number to throw off people who believed that the scum would follow a unique-number pattern.....It's very WIFOMy, to say the least.

black ops...nice
Anyway I believe that ghostly was trying to leave the game as he may have said something to hinder other games as he said
It did seem fishy at first but now that he came back and explained it I do believe it

[drunkmonkey]

The numbers Mason...WHAT DO THEY MEAN!!!!!


I had not considered the placement of the numbers. It was established that the scum were able to talk before sending their lists, and thus would probably pick different numbers. Probably, because it was suggest that they could then have two of their members pick the same number to throw off people who believed that the scum would follow a unique-number pattern.....It's very WIFOMy, to say the least.

black ops...nice
Anyway I believe that ghostly was trying to leave the game as he may have said something to hinder other games as he said
It did seem fishy at first but now that he came back and explained it I do believe it

Yes, we all understand why he left. The level of buddying between you two is getting uncomfortable.

[dazza2008]

The numbers Mason...WHAT DO THEY MEAN!!!!!


I had not considered the placement of the numbers. It was established that the scum were able to talk before sending their lists, and thus would probably pick different numbers. Probably, because it was suggest that they could then have two of their members pick the same number to throw off people who believed that the scum would follow a unique-number pattern.....It's very WIFOMy, to say the least.

black ops...nice
Anyway I believe that ghostly was trying to leave the game as he may have said something to hinder other games as he said
It did seem fishy at first but now that he came back and explained it I do believe it

Yes, we all understand why he left. The level of buddying between you two is getting uncomfortable.

I think they are real life buddies. I know this does not mean we must let them off but I think we should bear it in mind.

[ghostly447]

Rl buddies but there have only been a couple games that I could truly use as past games to teach him with a little. He is in the growing stage and is starting to pick up a couple tricks of the trade but it is difficult to do that for me because I know the play style of a couple people in the community so sometimes its perspective learning we do nit share anything of the game outside of the game itself until its over so even if he is connecting himself to be it means 1 of 2 things. Both are Mafia or we actually think the others case is strong enough. I don't think this should be something players judge our play with.

[spiesr]

Rl buddies but there have only been a couple games that I could truly use as past games to teach him with a little. He is in the growing stage and is starting to pick up a couple tricks of the trade but it is difficult to do that for me because I know the play style of a couple people in the community so sometimes its perspective learning we do nit share anything of the game outside of the game itself until its over so even if he is connecting himself to be it means 1 of 2 things. Both are Mafia or we actually think the others case is strong enough. I don't think this should be something players judge our play with.

Or perhaps the it could mean that he doesn't really have any ideas what to do going forward and he decided to just blindly(?) follow you?

[ghostly447]

Rl buddies but there have only been a couple games that I could truly use as past games to teach him with a little. He is in the growing stage and is starting to pick up a couple tricks of the trade but it is difficult to do that for me because I know the play style of a couple people in the community so sometimes its perspective learning we do nit share anything of the game outside of the game itself until its over so even if he is connecting himself to be it means 1 of 2 things. Both are Mafia or we actually think the others case is strong enough. I don't think this should be something players judge our play with.

Or perhaps the it could mean that he doesn't really have any ideas what to do going forward and he decided to just blindly(?) follow you?

I suppose that could be it. I couldnt tell you what he thinks anyways. He is somewhat a loony but he is cool . I guess if he is new then he would follow me since he knows me.

[soundman]

It is possible I'm completely wrong and mafia are scattered unevenly throuhgout this list, but there's one thing for sure: unless mafia are sincerely stupid or severely cunning no more than 1 mafia exists in group 4, or group 3; and no more than 2 mafia in group 2. (this assumes they all picked different numbers)

So with that in mind, let's consider what roles would likely be high on the mafia's list:

1 - cop - doubtful, only helpful to keep town from getting info
2 - watcher - unuseful
3 - tracker - unuseful
4 - doctor - useful incase they don't get vig
5 - roleblocker - useful, standard mafia role
6 - vigilante - very useful, provides second kill
7 - bomb (works both when lynched and nightkilled) - useful as it makes sure a townie dies when he does
8 - JOAT (1-shot cop, doctor and vigilante) - semi-useful
9 - inventor (1-shot rolecop, roleblock and hide - only dies if hiding behind a player that is killed) - semi-useful
10 - busdriver - useful in screwing up town
11 - commuter (cannot commute in back to back nights) - unuseful
12 - bulletproof (also immune to bomb) - obviously handy, especially if they don't have vig
13 - doublevoter (second vote is a secret "???" PMed to me) - mildly useful
14 - 1-shot governor (can stop any lynch, including his own - day ends if he uses his power) - useful
15 - loved person (needs one more vote than necessary in order to be lynched) - could be more useful
16 and 17 - 2 masons (town only) - can't have it
18 - framer (mafia only) - useful only if town has cop. The very existance of it means that mafia cop can say some townie is scum and then say the framer did it. But this assumed the cop is mafia, which I find unlikely
19 - ninja (mafia only - will not be seen by watchers nor trackers) - useful, but like the framer, it will cause problems in mass claims for the mafia. Perhaps the mafia would sell these two players out if they got stuck with these roles to save themselves. IDK

It looks like maybe 1 or 2 would have gotten their top pick, which means two of these roles would have gotten what they want. And then there's probably 2 who didn't get their first pick and probably ended up with a role.

Ok, so the role analysis is a little weak because I really don't know what roles mafia would want most, but I'm pretty sure my group separation analysis is pretty accurate. It's at least probable.

I need some more input about the probable mafia roles tho.

-SG7 ( )

Could this list help us determine which roles the mafia got? Knowing that he is mafia and he knows which roles they got, then can we assume that the roles he put as "more useful" could be town roles? That way when someone claims that role he could try to lead a lynch based on the fact that mafia would want that role. While he and his buddies have mafia only or "less useful" roles. Kinda WIFOM but could be useful.

Now onto Ghostly. I don't see mafia putting roleblocker as a priority. (Also Shield has it as "useful"). So that pushes me in the "town" direction. However his defense of Shield, when it was obvious (IMO) that he was scum, along with Shield's number pick analysis makes me lean toward "scum". The whole Shield number analysis is WIFOM and there are two others that could be his partner in that group. So that isn't very reliable. At this point I'm inclined to believe that he is town.

Also I believe Ghostly has mentioned before that he knows Clever in RL. I think Clever is just following Ghostly's lead because he's biased toward him.

So who should we go after now? I'm not sure. When I have time I'm going to look back over the thread with a special emphasis on Spiesr and Everywhere.

[pmchugh]

I attempted to reread this thread again but I have done it too many times it was boring.

One thing that struck me as odd was that from the very start dj seemed very clued up on how the setup works and then today he hits out with:

I made a statement before and I have a theory so I would like others input on this one.

Judging by the double death, the only possibility in theory would have been JOAT and Vigilante. The JOAT using the one shot vig and the vig being a vig. Does anyone see any other possibilities?

Im just trying to figure out if there are any other ways to be killed other than those two roles that anyone sees as Im pretty sure mafia have taken them

Seems like a forced town tell to me.

Speaking of forcing town tells I dont like this:

There is no possible way for you to have the role that you claim based on the list that you claimed.

explain.

Fine.

You claimed commuter as the 13th spot on your list. Which means that in order to have gotten down that far on your list, 13 players would have had to taken the 13 roles above you, (Mason could be taken by two players), with a mafia role going to the 14th, and then you with commuter. However, you did not include my role in one of the 13 above yours, which makes the former condition impossible. Ergo, you have given us false information somewhere. You said that was the list you sent to Rodion, and that he gave you commuter as a result. These two claims conflict with each other.

QED, bitches!

Yeah, pretty much the fact that he is still alive is embarrassing. He has lied somewhere (13th pick lol) so off with his head.

He seemed too certain to me and I don't like that. The only person who knows they have mafia is the mafia themselves.

[edocsil]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

[spiesr]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

Incorrect, there would have been between three to five role available for the last person to pick from.

[edocsil]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

Incorrect, there would have been between three to five role available for the last person to pick from.

Ehh, yeah that was poorly thought out. He claimed to have got his second to last pick, not last role. I keep on forgetting there were more roles then players. Anyhow, can we agree that the likelihood of getting a sub 10th place pick should be low? I mean, I was half way down the list and I got my third (IIRC) pick Besides, when I hopped on with the cries of Liar the wagon was flagging, PMC's accusations were getting countered and shield was making a attempt to defend himself.

[pmchugh]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

Incorrect, there would have been between three to five role available for the last person to pick from.

Ehh, yeah that was poorly thought out. He claimed to have got his second to last pick, not last role. I keep on forgetting there were more roles then players. Anyhow, can we agree that the likelihood of getting a sub 10th place pick should be low? I mean, I was half way down the list and I got my third (IIRC) pick Besides, when I hopped on with the cries of Liar the wagon was flagging, PMC's accusations were getting countered and shield was making a attempt to defend himself.

On the contrary being last pick would mean that you have at least 14 roles you cannot pick. So having 12 roles above him is not that unlikely.

[edocsil]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

Incorrect, there would have been between three to five role available for the last person to pick from.

Ehh, yeah that was poorly thought out. He claimed to have got his second to last pick, not last role. I keep on forgetting there were more roles then players. Anyhow, can we agree that the likelihood of getting a sub 10th place pick should be low? I mean, I was half way down the list and I got my third (IIRC) pick Besides, when I hopped on with the cries of Liar the wagon was flagging, PMC's accusations were getting countered and shield was making a attempt to defend himself.

On the contrary being last pick would mean that you have at least 14 roles you cannot pick. So having 12 roles above him is not that unlikely.

Only if we all put in the same requested roles. Events have show that people have widely different desires and ideals when it comes to the right role. There is so much wifom here that it is really hazardous to say that everyone put the Cop Doc JOAT Vig as 1, 2, 3, 4 and that all the roles fell out identically after that. That is basically what someone who is town has to do for a sub 10 pick (because they can't be non town roles) IMO, anyone who claims a sub 10 pick is hiding something.

[Some7hingCLEVER]

It is possible I'm completely wrong and mafia are scattered unevenly throuhgout this list, but there's one thing for sure: unless mafia are sincerely stupid or severely cunning no more than 1 mafia exists in group 4, or group 3; and no more than 2 mafia in group 2. (this assumes they all picked different numbers)

So with that in mind, let's consider what roles would likely be high on the mafia's list:

1 - cop - doubtful, only helpful to keep town from getting info
2 - watcher - unuseful
3 - tracker - unuseful
4 - doctor - useful incase they don't get vig
5 - roleblocker - useful, standard mafia role
6 - vigilante - very useful, provides second kill
7 - bomb (works both when lynched and nightkilled) - useful as it makes sure a townie dies when he does
8 - JOAT (1-shot cop, doctor and vigilante) - semi-useful
9 - inventor (1-shot rolecop, roleblock and hide - only dies if hiding behind a player that is killed) - semi-useful
10 - busdriver - useful in screwing up town
11 - commuter (cannot commute in back to back nights) - unuseful
12 - bulletproof (also immune to bomb) - obviously handy, especially if they don't have vig
13 - doublevoter (second vote is a secret "???" PMed to me) - mildly useful
14 - 1-shot governor (can stop any lynch, including his own - day ends if he uses his power) - useful
15 - loved person (needs one more vote than necessary in order to be lynched) - could be more useful
16 and 17 - 2 masons (town only) - can't have it
18 - framer (mafia only) - useful only if town has cop. The very existance of it means that mafia cop can say some townie is scum and then say the framer did it. But this assumed the cop is mafia, which I find unlikely
19 - ninja (mafia only - will not be seen by watchers nor trackers) - useful, but like the framer, it will cause problems in mass claims for the mafia. Perhaps the mafia would sell these two players out if they got stuck with these roles to save themselves. IDK

It looks like maybe 1 or 2 would have gotten their top pick, which means two of these roles would have gotten what they want. And then there's probably 2 who didn't get their first pick and probably ended up with a role.

Ok, so the role analysis is a little weak because I really don't know what roles mafia would want most, but I'm pretty sure my group separation analysis is pretty accurate. It's at least probable.

I need some more input about the probable mafia roles tho.

-SG7 ( )

Could this list help us determine which roles the mafia got? Knowing that he is mafia and he knows which roles they got, then can we assume that the roles he put as "more useful" could be town roles? That way when someone claims that role he could try to lead a lynch based on the fact that mafia would want that role. While he and his buddies have mafia only or "less useful" roles. Kinda WIFOM but could be useful.

Now onto Ghostly. I don't see mafia putting roleblocker as a priority. (Also Shield has it as "useful"). So that pushes me in the "town" direction. However his defense of Shield, when it was obvious (IMO) that he was scum, along with Shield's number pick analysis makes me lean toward "scum". The whole Shield number analysis is WIFOM and there are two others that could be his partner in that group. So that isn't very reliable. At this point I'm inclined to believe that he is town.

Also I believe Ghostly has mentioned before that he knows Clever in RL. I think Clever is just following Ghostly's lead because he's biased toward him.

So who should we go after now? I'm not sure. When I have time I'm going to look back over the thread with a special emphasis on Spiesr and Everywhere.

no. Sorry I know it seems that way but I do know him but that is not why I agree with him I make sure the RL has nothing to do with my games

[pmchugh]

Dude, 13th pick? The odds of that are insanely low. THE LAST ROLE AVAILABLE IN THE GAME. Also, I am always a fan of seeing shield swing. FoS me if you like, I don't think it is going to gain much traction.

Incorrect, there would have been between three to five role available for the last person to pick from.

Ehh, yeah that was poorly thought out. He claimed to have got his second to last pick, not last role. I keep on forgetting there were more roles then players. Anyhow, can we agree that the likelihood of getting a sub 10th place pick should be low? I mean, I was half way down the list and I got my third (IIRC) pick Besides, when I hopped on with the cries of Liar the wagon was flagging, PMC's accusations were getting countered and shield was making a attempt to defend himself.

On the contrary being last pick would mean that you have at least 14 roles you cannot pick. So having 12 roles above him is not that unlikely.

Only if we all put in the same requested roles. Events have show that people have widely different desires and ideals when it comes to the right role. There is so much wifom here that it is really hazardous to say that everyone put the Cop Doc JOAT Vig as 1, 2, 3, 4 and that all the roles fell out identically after that. That is basically what someone who is town has to do for a sub 10 pick (because they can't be non town roles) IMO, anyone who claims a sub 10 pick is hiding something.

If anyone town player has loved townie in their top 10, I would be shocked. I obviously agree there has been a wide spread of what people want, but I think there are a few roles which could easily fetch numbers that badly.

Also, whoever said roleblocker is not a good role for mafia was wrong. Especially in a set up you are bound to hit a solid pr.

[everywhere116]

Also, whoever said roleblocker is not a good role for mafia was wrong. Especially in a set up you are bound to hit a solid pr.

That was sound, coming to the valiant defense of ghost and clever.

[edocsil]

If anyone town player has loved townie in their top 10, I would be shocked. I obviously agree there has been a wide spread of what people want, but I think there are a few roles which could easily fetch numbers that badly.

I agree to an extent. That is the only role I see as truly useless for everyone. Perhaps if it had been town only it would have had some function.

Commuter/BP/bomb seems dumb, but if you got first pick and were one those roles you could really cripple the scum. Its all situational.

[soundman]

Also, whoever said roleblocker is not a good role for mafia was wrong. Especially in a set up you are bound to hit a solid pr.

That was sound, coming to the valiant defense of ghost and clever.

I didn't defend them at all. I just weighed the sides and came out with a more Townie feeling. They are in no way cleared, I just think that at this point it would be better for us to move on. Also I did not say that the Roleblocker was a bad role for mafia, mearly that I think it would be a lower priority.

[pmchugh]

At this point I think we need to lynch ghostly.

unvote vote ghostly

He made too many scum tells day 1, and even though he is town telling with his nag tunneling I still think he is the pick for today. The downside is if we he flips town and we continue to lose two townies a night then we may only get one more lynch. However that is true of whoever we lynch, if ghostly is mafia then we have a lot of reads on people.

Although prior to his lynch I would like to hear from everybody on their assessment of him and the game in general.

[ghostly447]

At this point I think we need to lynch ghostly.

unvote vote ghostly

He made too many scum tells day 1, and even though he is town telling with his nag tunneling I still think he is the pick for today. The downside is if we he flips town and we continue to lose two townies a night then we may only get one more lynch. However that is true of whoever we lynch, if ghostly is mafia then we have a lot of reads on people.

Although prior to his lynch I would like to hear from everybody on their assessment of him and the game in general.

How about this one. Point out my scum slips please. Because I could have sworn this case was being led because me and CLEVER were somehow, in your ultimate universe of knowledge, connected.

Point out all the scum slips I have made, because quite honestly I think Nag and Dazza are scummy here.

Dazza's last 5 posts have all been 1 liners of no substance. The last thing he posted of substance was the 23rd defending himself from a CLEVER brief mentioning of the defense he is using (you are connecting us for having the same view).

I read Nags posts all the way back to the 19th and just gave up on trying to find something that was of substance, or the wasnt jumping on a damn wagon.

Now I am getting ticked. Does no one else see this? They pop in then pop out, and no one sees WHY I think they are scummy. At least 2/3 of their posts arent anything of substance, but yet I will soon be lynched by these very same people. Then what? They are forgotton because no one brings them up again? I have evidence showing exactly what they are doing. But I will be lynched by them because of leaving a game to make sure I wouldnt ruin any games.

PMC, if you can come up with some hard evidence showing that I did in fact slip a multitude of times, I will hammer myself if it will truly help the town as much as you think it will. But for God's sake, you are narrowing it down and doing exactly what you are accusing me of. Does that mean its your turn next lynch? I doubt it since you will obviously convince the town "Lets lynch CLEVER, or someone else who has made just enough slips to be mafia".

[Some7hingCLEVER]

At this point I think we need to lynch ghostly.

unvote vote ghostly

He made too many scum tells day 1, and even though he is town telling with his nag tunneling I still think he is the pick for today. The downside is if we he flips town and we continue to lose two townies a night then we may only get one more lynch. However that is true of whoever we lynch, if ghostly is mafia then we have a lot of reads on people.

Although prior to his lynch I would like to hear from everybody on their assessment of him and the game in general.

1. everywhere116-seems kinda scummy seems to like to connect people for very stupid reasons
2. ghostly447-believe he is a town who is just in a bad situation(had to leave causing him to look scummy)
3. Some7hingCLEVER-obviously town ..he is awesome
4. pmchugh-seems like town to me just seems like he is trying to hit a mafia to be the one to do it
5. edocsil-seems town..playing a numbers game
6. nagerous-def. seems scum for multiple reasons
7. dazza2008-hasnt said anything (of substance) in a while..scumarining?
9. Djfireside-also hasnt said anything (at all) since friday
10. spiesr-seems town to me
11. MoB Deadly-dropped out while i was in the middle of making a case on him lol
12. soundman-seems town to me lol seems to be getting "connected" to me and ghostly
13. alt1978-lol started posting paragraphs and has evolved to posting novels