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[OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (4/12)Endgame: MAFIA WIN

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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby bosaardbeitje on Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:42 pm

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:I'll bite, one is scummier than the other.

Vote Boss

Thank you Wing for putting a coherent case together. And I believe this is what we would call an OMGUS vote, but I can see that you have since been working hard to fit evidence to your case.

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:
bosaardbeitje wrote:@ Wing Why would I be looking for a case against YOU? I am looking at everyone and have ZERO reasons to jump on your case all of sudden. I did review all the information and that's exactly how I pinned you down as scum.


Utter rubbish. You reactionary OMGUS'd me, and are now attempting to justify said OMGUS. I am not bothering to respond to your posts as I do not respect the lack of any logic in your case. I'm not quite sure why you expect me to keep track of deaths when the original scene had IB as one of the dead.

Since when aren't players expected to keep track of deaths? Anyone who cares enough is keeping track. Yes, the original scene had IB in it, and both the original scene and the new scene had Tim in them, so sure you must have seen that too, twice! I know you helped Streak write the new scene after he mucked up, so don't pretend you 'forgot'.

Okay, so Wing accidentally mentions Tim, accidentally mentions the game EoTW for no apparent reason, accidentally mixes up the games EoTW and Get Tonkaed, that accidentally had a Traitor in it. What a coincidence! What is more likely? Wing making a lot of mistakes or Wing pulling a stunt on us, being the smart player he is?

And while we are at it, what's up with calling me a 'he' all of a sudden. Are you trying to stick a bulls-eye on my back now? Because you are sure working hard to get me lynched. First you say I am a pair with Anam and now all of a sudden I am a pair with Mitch? I can understand why you want to get rid of me though, because apparently I am unable to convince others of the fact that you are scum.

@ Marashu

stump (according to the dictionary) Part, as of a branch, limb, or tooth, remaining after the main part has been cut away, broken off or worn / The small projecting remnant of something that has been cut or broken off or worn away

After the weird interaction between Wing and End I went back to look at Wing's other posts to see what else stood out, and that word caught my attention.

I would also like to ask everybody the following question, if you were to be the unrecruited traitor, would you try to let the goons know your identity in some sort of way? If you don't, the goons could accidentally lynch you. Since TWR got caught on D1, it seems even more important for an unrecruited traitor to make sure that the other goon knows his identity.

Even if you don't believe all that and still think I have a lot of fantasy, Wing admits that he is coaching people:

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:I really need to stop trying to teach players during the game. I get called scum for it everytime.

But who did he coach D1? Of course he would be interested in coaching TWR as his scum partner. Wing's interaction with TWR alone should be enough to lynch him. The only person who is confirmed mafia is TWR and the only one who constantly tried to help TWR is Wing.

@ Maras Dakky raised the theory that scum could have sacrificed one of their own on D1, which made me rethink the Townieness of both End and Dakky. It would be a great strategy to gain Town credit. Besides that, I was thinking of the interaction between End and TWR, when TWR got lynched. Since I am now convinced that Wing is unrecruited, that theory seems less likely though. It doesn't make sense to sacrifice a goon, if you don't know the traitor, does it? So perhaps Dakky and End are innocent after all...
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby madmitch on Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:48 pm

@ Nice post Bos ,finally someone else sees Wing as scum ,now we got to find the traitor, sorry that I thought it might have been you but now I know better, who to read as the traitor ?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:32 pm

It was pointed out that if u were throwing ur partner under the bus end then u would make sure u did it properly so perhaps u chose tracker just so u had an explanation or maybe because it was less likely the cop would counterclaim so u wouldn't find out any roles I don't know I'm just putting some ideas out there... Doesn't seem like anyone has thoughts on it so I will unvote for now and come back when I have more time to get thru all the new posts properly
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:40 am

IB you say that you find anam scummy for not forcing Rose to claim but at the time dakky had posted less than Rose so was another reasonable person to look at... tim voted dakky after anam and he was town so it could in fact be innocent... could be scummy as hell too but just wondering if you have other reasons too?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby WingCmdr Ginkapo on Sat Nov 21, 2015 5:37 am

rizky_biznezz wrote:It was pointed out that if u were throwing ur partner under the bus end then u would make sure u did it properly so perhaps u chose tracker just so u had an explanation or maybe because it was less likely the cop would counterclaim so u wouldn't find out any roles I don't know I'm just putting some ideas out there... Doesn't seem like anyone has thoughts on it so I will unvote for now and come back when I have more time to get thru all the new posts properly


You have to consider the probabilities here. What are the chances that mafia threw one of their team under the bus D1? You said it yourself that it would be a calculated risk to do so. Mafia dont tend to take risks, so I'd say the chances are low.

Its not unwise to consider all possibilities, however, the most likely is often the reality my dear Watson.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:09 am

Lol I'm going crazy trying to work out every possibility... It might not be that unlikely with 3 scum.. It would give them a whole lotta town cred and have everyone looking at all the wrong ppl while they just cruise to the end..
Having 2 scum makes it easier to hide out amongst all of us too..

I don't see bos or mitch as being overly scummy.. I was a little suspicious of Bos earlier but she responded to my points with reasonable explanations and she seems to be genuinely trying to hunt and mitch has been asking questions and putting together some of his own thoughts so at the lower end of my list for now..
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:12 am

Although I don't really like Mitch's last post to Bos...
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby WingCmdr Ginkapo on Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:28 am

rizky_biznezz wrote:Lol I'm going crazy trying to work out every possibility... It might not be that unlikely with 3 scum.. It would give them a whole lotta town cred and have everyone looking at all the wrong ppl while they just cruise to the end..
Having 2 scum makes it easier to hide out amongst all of us too..


Stay with three scum - Victory at end of N3 if things go correctly. Shorter time to hide.

Bus one on D1 - Victory at end of N4 if all else goes correctly, longer time to hide.

Its quite a complicated conudrum, but losing one of your partners as mafia is never ideal. Its always important as mafia to know at what point the lynch is certain and gain as much town cred from that point onwards, but leading a lynch is not advised. What classes as leading is debatable, especially when an early vote can be intended as a red herring, but spiral out of control. I think you get the picture.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby dakky21 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:24 am

I agree there is a possibility that scum leaded the lynch, but that is highly improbable.
I'd rather say that scum jumped on the wagon when it was L-2 and obvious it will be lynch to gain some credit.
From reading back, Rizky jumped on the wagon last, then IB hammered. IB turned out confirmed town... while Rizky is trying to be here and post probabilities of mafia leading lynch on their own member.
Rizky, who is your top scum read and why?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:14 am

@ dakky sorry I don't have 1 top read just yet... Im still suspicious of end and he didn't address any of the points in my other post only found a flaw in my claim logic.. Can't make my mind up about wing and it looks like he is trying to help me but because I'm suspicious of him im not sure if he is just trying to throw me off.. I am also wondering about mars just sliding by not on any radars
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby Streaker on Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:05 am

Streaker wrote:Vote Count

Endgame422 (1): dakky21, rizky_biznezz
Anamainiacks (3): endgame422, Iron Butterfly, dakky21
Wingcmdr Ginkapo (2): bosaardbeitje, madmitch, rizky_biznezz
bosaardbeitje (2): WingCmdr Ginkapo, anamainiacks
dakky21 (1): marashu

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline November 23rd, 03.00 CC Time.
First Tournament Victory: Game 6518858

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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby WingCmdr Ginkapo on Sat Nov 21, 2015 11:28 am

Mars stop logging in, reading and then disappearing. We need your thoughts.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:00 pm

Pretty sure I unvoted streak but I will do it again to make sure

Unvote vote wing

Haven't seen a strong case on anyone else so I'm sticking with wing.. He defended end when I was looking into him and the other mafia game he brought up it all seems too suspicious
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby Marashu on Sat Nov 21, 2015 1:48 pm

dakky21 wrote:Yes, because you're not playing the game as you normally play when you're town. I noticed a slight change in game play, that's why I'd vote you, but since that won't mean anything, I'll stick to IB reads. You didn't targeted me but I just have that feeling. And endgame turned me around, though that can still be a mastermind plot. If anyone wants to win as town is IB, and if his reads are bad, then are mine as well.


Why would it not mean anything? If wing had your vote when you said you would have voted him if you weren't with IB, then you would have put him to L-1.

bosaardbeitje wrote:I would also like to ask everybody the following question, if you were to be the unrecruited traitor, would you try to let the goons know your identity in some sort of way?

Not sure, honestly. But I do feel that, whether or not an unrecruited would give hints, goons would be looking for hints. I do feel that you and mitch are doing that. To clarify a bit further, EotW was the game. GotTonkaed was a player in the game, who ended up leaving and getting replaced mid-game by Endgame (who had already died N1). It's not terribly surprising that he would get the players confused, but if he IS trying to drop hints, mentioning a game where he's scum is actually a pretty clever way of doing it. And yes, mitch was in that game, too.

Iron Butterfly wrote:Personally that's a crap answer. Equal pressure is a copout.We needed one more vote to make PCM claim you deliberately choose to drag it out by putting it on Dakky. There was no pressure on Dakky at that time.There was on TWR. I am not sure why everyone else is letting this slide.

Who is more likely to make the safer plays? Mafia, who are informed, or town, who are uninformed? I agree that it was a bad play, but with a lot of pressure already on rose, I'm not sure that it's mafia's play to go for the equal pressure play, exactly because it singles them out later. And I think it is to town's benefit to have more than one lynch candidate D1. So while it is kind of weird and slightly scummy, from where I stand there's far scummier things that have been happening.

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:Mafia dont tend to take risks, so I'd say the chances are low.

I disagree - rose claiming tracker was a risk. Calculated risks involve weighing risk to reward. Rose's tracker claim meant rose thought there was some degree of success, and felt that staying alive would be more valuable to the mafia than outing a cop. As an aside, it also suggests to me that mafia does not have a JOAT, because with a cop counterclaim they could take out the cop N1 without any fuss or fear.

dakky21 wrote:I'd rather say that scum jumped on the wagon when it was L-2 and obvious it will be lynch to gain some credit.

Looking at the train after the counterclaim is pointless - when the counterclaim happened, in my opinion, the rose lynch was going to happen. Also, people at the end of a wagon are typically under more scrutiny than people at the beginning/middle of a wagon, so it's better for scum to get on early. I'll admit that starting a wagon against your partner is weird, but being stuck on the wagon is possible. It's good to see you putting a token effort into scumhunting, at least.

With deadline 38 hours away, I think it's unlikely to get a dakky lynch right now. Of the three major cases, I'm not really behind the ana case (and am hoping that if it doesn't go through, IB will reconsider his shot). The cases on wing are unusual in that people with votes on him seem to be voting him for very different reasons - bosaa assumes that he is unrecruited, while pt assumes rose knew him. At this point, I feel like rizky is the more likely to be right, and am suspecting that bosaa might be tunneling because of wing's genderslip. The bosaa case Wing made relies on being scumpair with mitch. Since then, mitch has actually posted to get closer into boss' camp, which is the opposite of what I would expect. ana's case is simply that another case was made outside what the vig wanted, and that one makes a little more sense to me. I find it interesting that dakky has not mentioned bosaa yet all game, even though we're near the end of D2.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby bosaardbeitje on Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:03 pm

There is talk about 2 different plans. One assumes that TWR planned to fakeclaim, the other one assumes sacrificing TWR early. Both are possible, but they can't be in place simultaneously. So, it's either one or the other. Since TWR fakeclaimed Tracker, I assume that was their plan all along. Which means that there was no plan to bus a partner early.

I had a look at the votes on TWR. We have the luxury position that 2 wagons have been building, so sure there must be something we can learn from those wagons.

First wagon: Dakky - End - Wing - Mitch - IB
Unvoted: Wing - Mitch - IB - End
Second wagon: Dakky - Ptlowe - Maras - End - Wing - Rizky - IB

Dakky and End had been on the TWR case from the beginning. According to my theory they were not trying to bus their partner. There is still a possibility that they voted TWR because they knew the Tracker claim was coming and wanted to get Town credit in a later stadium, should TWR get busted for his fakeclaim.

But I am mainly looking at the persons who followed quickly after Dakky and End: Wing and Mitch. Wing would not have known about the plan to fakeclaim and found a good position for Town credit should TWR get lynched. He only explained his vote with an argument from Maras that had been mentioned earlier, but he 'missed' it the first time. Mitch didn't have to be afraid of putting another vote on TWR if he knew about the fakeclaim.

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:
Marashu wrote:On my point on daytalk, I was looking for people who were posting less than expected norm (other people's accounts on rose's lack of posts is what got rose on that list), and as for rizky being around, most of those posts contribute little more than showing that he is still present.


Ah I missed this the first time you raised it. Thats a very good argument. I dont trust you, but that is a good point.


Unvote Vote White Rose

I don't know whether we can learn something from the unvoting part, because I think it was only logical to unvote as soon as TWR claimed Tracker, but I do note that Wing and Mitch were the first ones to unvote again and that End also unvoted.

Wing also made sure that he had his vote in on the second wagon at L-2. Mitch was not on this wagon, but he may have missed it because it was a small time window (7 hours from Ptlowe's vote to Rizky's vote). Maras also made sure his vote was in on this one, directly after the counterclaim.

So, right now I am thinking of a partnership between Wing / Mitch or Wing / Maras or Wing / End or Wing / Dakky.

Fpd, I agree that the second wagon is probably less important than the first one.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby WingCmdr Ginkapo on Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:10 pm

Marashu wrote:
dakky21 wrote:Yes, because you're not playing the game as you normally play when you're town. I noticed a slight change in game play, that's why I'd vote you, but since that won't mean anything, I'll stick to IB reads. You didn't targeted me but I just have that feeling. And endgame turned me around, though that can still be a mastermind plot. If anyone wants to win as town is IB, and if his reads are bad, then are mine as well.


Why would it not mean anything? If wing had your vote when you said you would have voted him if you weren't with IB, then you would have put him to L-1.


Those were my thoughts to, but I hope you forgive me for not actually saying it.

Marashu wrote:bosaa might be tunneling because of wing's genderslip.


He tunneled straight after my first big post of D2, the genderslip was well after that.

Marashu wrote:The bosaa case Wing made relies on being scumpair with mitch.


In fairness, Boss is the common denominator in all the scenarios in my head.

Marashu wrote:I find it interesting that dakky has not mentioned bosaa yet all game, even though we're near the end of D2.


Clearly you have some concept of this too. All roads lead to Boss.

Thankyou for sharing your thoughts. Are you considering voting for me? If so I will claim, as my life may genuinely be under threat.

(Note: I'm working tonight so wont be able to respond for at least 18 hours time)

fp'd by Boss. I agree that the timing of my vote, and the lack of passion I had for the vote gives me no town credibility whatsoever. I put myself in the group of AnaManiac, Mitch, Rizky, Boss and myself in which the two mafia must fall. I know I am not mafia, but can understand why others would not see that clearly from my D1 play.

So you think that I might be mafia because of my late vote, but then think I might be partners with End and Dakky who voted early?
Boss wrote:One assumes that TWR planned to fakeclaim, the other one assumes sacrificing TWR early. Both are possible, but they can't be in place simultaneously.


If your going to write a fake case make it stack up with your own logic. Very good effort though I give you that.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby Endgame422 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:30 pm

Why is mars not in the group you listed as possible scum wing?
If ana lynch doesn't have the momentum i will vote boss.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby anamainiacks on Sat Nov 21, 2015 6:13 pm

Mars' case on dakky is pretty strong, I'd say. dakky's vote/'push' on TWR was highly circumstantial, and his town cred might not be as high as one might be led to believe, for someone who was the first to place a vote on TWR. And dakky still continues to list his reads without much of an explanation, and worse than that, he doesn't stand behind his own reads and hides behind IB. So I certainly haven't cleared him as townie; but like the others have mentioned, his early vote on TWR puts him a lot lower on the potential scum list.

dakky21 wrote:My reads are like this... whoever is targeting me must be scum, so far it was Mars who pushed it hard and anamainiacks who is sticking to the story.

That's a pretty OMGUS way to make reads. Townies have no clue what's going on, so are almost as likely to be unknowingly targeting townies.

dakky21 wrote:If anyone wants to win as town is IB, and if his reads are bad, then are mine as well.

So you aren't wanting to win as town either? If we all followed such logic, then we might as well get IB to decide the day lynch and his night vigs - let him make all the town decisions. That doesn't make any sense, does it?

Endgame422 wrote:If dakky wasnt hiding behind IB he would be in the boss/mitch camp. That will be good to remeber if boss/wing get lynched today.

Just trying to understand what you're saying here - so if dakky wasn't hiding, he'd be MORE scummy (is that what you meant by boss/mitch camp?)? Shouldn't it work the other way around?

bosaardbeitje wrote:Even if you don't believe all that and still think I have a lot of fantasy, Wing admits that he is coaching people:
WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:I really need to stop trying to teach players during the game. I get called scum for it everytime.

But who did he coach D1? Of course he would be interested in coaching TWR as his scum partner. Wing's interaction with TWR alone should be enough to lynch him. The only person who is confirmed mafia is TWR and the only one who constantly tried to help TWR is Wing.

Hmm he didn't only coach TWR, he coached Rizky I believe. Somehow I get the impression that there were more (I seem to recall lots of questions about what things mean and being confused, and WCG was often the one responding to those). So it wasn't that he was favouring TWR; and if they were scum buddies, it'd be better play for him to be coaching at night anyway, not in full view of everyone.

madmitch wrote:@ Nice post Bos ,finally someone else sees Wing as scum ,now we got to find the traitor, sorry that I thought it might have been you but now I know better, who to read as the traitor ?

What are you talking about? bosaa voted for WCG before you even did... You wagoned with her, and now you're trying to get momentum going again by saying there's another person on board the wagon?

Marashu wrote:I find it interesting that dakky has not mentioned bosaa yet all game, even though we're near the end of D2.

Indeed. And bosaa was one of the votes on dakky on D1 too, which means by dakky's logic (those who find him scummy are scum), bosaa should have been mentioned...

bosaardbeitje wrote:There is talk about 2 different plans. One assumes that TWR planned to fakeclaim, the other one assumes sacrificing TWR early. Both are possible, but they can't be in place simultaneously. So, it's either one or the other. Since TWR fakeclaimed Tracker, I assume that was their plan all along. Which means that there was no plan to bus a partner early.

Isn't there a 3rd possible option, where the scum hadn't hoped for any wagons to form on them on D1? Just because scum had fakeclaims planned, doesn't mean they had planned to use it so soon on D1. So when we take that into account, the votes may not be as indicative as you suggest.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby Endgame422 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:55 pm

My point was just that we needed to note dakkys reads,so we can compare them with what people actually flip.
Not inherently scummy or towny but since he is just blindly following its the closest to a stance he will actually take.
I dont want to go through with a lynch of dakky today though.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:52 pm

I'm only on a short break so just doing a quick catch up i will be back in a few hours when I finish work
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sun Nov 22, 2015 3:35 am

it seems a lot of you think that its possible... but unlikely so this will be my last post about it:

consider that wing is unrecruited traitor and end is mafia...

end votes WR for not being loud.. when in fact end had not actually said anything before his vote on rose either... also his vote came after the IB/Bos run in which end couldnt take sides on because he didnt know if one of them was his unknown mafia buddy so he skipped right over it...

now his vote on Rose would get him town credit and would allow for him to mostly scrape by unnoticed for the rest of the game.. knowing that there was still another mafia out there for back-up..

wing needs to let end know what he is so his first post:

I'm the Ace of Spades


was his first attempt... the ace of spades is considered a trump card or a sinister card..

Ace of spades eh wing?
That sounds like you might have an extra card or two up your sleeve..
Vote Wing


this could be end confirming he understands..

then wing votes mars... he has to get a vote in before end to look like he is hunting for himself he cant just jump straight on ends case..

wing also paid extra attention to this vote count mistake.. maybe another way to hint that he knows whats going on:

I know that Endgame is voting White Rose, so I suspect the vote count is incorrect


end posts:
My vote on TWR was just to get some action from him originally but im starting to think hes mafia.
His bandwagon on wings case on mars is suspect,also im not very trusting of players who assure me of anything,even more so when they are assuring me that he will start contributing more to the hunt for scum.
Actions speak louder then words and TWR seems to be stalling,with time running out.
The maniacs case on rizky looks like another one id like to look into.
Rizky what are your thoughts on wings case on mars and my points against TWR?
Also agreed its strange that PT has been gone for so long but we cant read into streaker not prodding him.
Playing the mod is a recipe for disaster.
PT whatcha think of IBvsBoss on the "list" arguement?


adds a little more to his Rose case even though rose had explained his absence reasonably.... asks questions from people... possibly to double check the traitor to find out which answers line up with his or just to look like he is hunting... he cant give too many reads while he is still unsure of the traitor..

wing comes out with another hint:

Over thought, 1 of the mafia players may not be known to the others, so were possibly looking for a pair of players and an independent defender of this pair, rather than a normal trio. With this thought, the following post takes on a whole new meaning.


then wing drops this:

In EoTW I let End live as town vig for ages as he was killing town for me, so there is not necessarily a reason for mafia to nightkill you immediately


with one scum gone wing really needs end to know who he is so he throws out a game that they played together where there just so happened to be a traitor.. but also a game where wing was scum and got another scum lynched.... in other words saying i know the play you are running..

end comes back with a vote for anamainiaks.. a safe vote seeing as he didnt follow end on the rose plan.. so an unlikely traitor..

end posts:

-WingCmdr Ginkapo Not sure why your holding back wing,id value your opinion on ana vs rizky and on boss in general


he is either giving wing hints to the plan or he is still trying to work out the traitor... wing also says anam...

end tries to find out who IB is likely to shoot... trying to work out if they need to night kill him or leave him to kill another townie if thats who he lists...

IB your thoughts here?
Who are the 2 remaining scum?


wing brings up the other mafia again in case end missed the hint... and takes the opposite side of how much IB should reveal.. putting some distance between him and end..

end posts:

Wing,rizkys case isnt great,but it is the strongest case against you currently,with 3 votes on you at least 1 is town so consider that for a moment.


he has already said that my case was based on facts not fantasy so is advising wing to go hard for bos and mitch instead.. which is what wing does...

wing tries to talk me out of the possibility... despite running the play himself in a game... hmm..

You have to consider the probabilities here. What are the chances that mafia threw one of their team under the bus D1? You said it yourself that it would be a calculated risk to do so. Mafia dont tend to take risks, so I'd say the chances are low.

Its not unwise to consider all possibilities, however, the most likely is often the reality my dear Watson.


also note that end had no real reads or opinions of his own (other than rose) until wings major hint came out... once he realised he knew who the traitor was for sure it was easier to throw points around and make comments...

i think wing being the traitor and trying to get scums attention accounts for his weird play that a few people have commented on...

really sorry for another long post thats the last one... maybe some of it is a stretch but thats why its there so i can get other thoughts... so thats where i sit at the moment
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby Marashu on Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:11 am

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:He tunneled straight after my first big post of D2, the genderslip was well after that.

Now I feel like you're actively provoking her to get a reaction.

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:Are you considering voting for me? If so I will claim, as my life may genuinely be under threat.

I currently feel that it is not a town fight, and that there must be scum among one of you two.
I put myself in the group of AnaManiac, Mitch, Rizky, Boss and myself in which the two mafia must fall.

I find it really, really weird that you are counting yourself as a scum candidate.

anamainiacks wrote:Isn't there a 3rd possible option, where the scum hadn't hoped for any wagons to form on them on D1? Just because scum had fakeclaims planned, doesn't mean they had planned to use it so soon on D1. So when we take that into account, the votes may not be as indicative as you suggest.

This is a great point. I'm not sure if it's bosaa trying to manipulate town into a false dichotomy or if she's just too focused on her theory.

Right now I'm leaning more towards a Wing vote - I'll hold off until after he claims. rizky brings up some good points on End - I need to go in to work for an overtime shift, so I won't have time to review today, but I'll be reviewing him during N2. I feel like if wing flips scum, it clears bosaa and rizky. If bosaa flips scum, it clears wing.
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby rizky_biznezz on Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:41 am

At the moment I'm having similar thoughts to bos so Im not really seeing her as scummy.. If she was scum she could have easily jumped on the rose vote when it was pretty much a sure thing and got the town credit.. I also don't see why rose would try and imply bos was scum when rose was sinking further.. I will obviously have to reconsider if wing flips town.. Not sure who I would partner her with though... Don't think she would have interacted the way she has with anam and mitch if they were her scum buddies it would be way too obvious
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby bosaardbeitje on Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:44 am

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:
Marashu wrote:The bosaa case Wing made relies on being scumpair with mitch.

In fairness, Boss is the common denominator in all the scenarios in my head.
Marashu wrote:I find it interesting that dakky has not mentioned bosaa yet all game, even though we're near the end of D2.

Clearly you have some concept of this too. All roads lead to Boss.
Thankyou for sharing your thoughts. Are you considering voting for me? If so I will claim, as my life may genuinely be under threat.

Now you're just taking things out of context. Maras points out that your case relies on me being a pair with Mitch and you say it could be everyone. Maras points out how Dakky has not mentioned me so far and again you say I could be scum with everyone. Obviously you are doing everything to get rid of me. How am I all of a sudden the scummiest person in here? I had no reason to go after you all of a sudden, I was looking mainly at Mitch but also everyone else. That's when I noticed that strange post of yours. Since then you have constantly tried to convince others of the fact that I am scum. And the longer you go on about it the more scumpartners you are able to find. First Anam, then Mitch, then Dakky and now basically everyone.

I also find it peculiar that you are so eager to claim, so I am curious what you are going to come up with. Shouldn't Townies try to avoid a claim instead of encouraging them?

WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:I put myself in the group of AnaManiac, Mitch, Rizky, Boss and myself in which the two mafia must fall.

And what is this? Are you trying to frame a few people before you die?
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Re: [OFFICIAL] Stack the Deck mafia (9/12) D2: The Stacked D

Postby WingCmdr Ginkapo on Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:45 am

Rizky wrote:wing needs to let end know what he is so his first post:

Wing wrote: I'm the Ace of Spades


was his first attempt... the ace of spades is considered a trump card or a sinister card..

End wrote:Ace of spades eh wing?
That sounds like you might have an extra card or two up your sleeve..

Vote Wing


If I was Unrecruited traitor then this would have been the only hint I needed. Message sent, message received. All this other EoTW rubbish you are throwing at me is pointless. I would not need to hint further. I play with End a lot and trust him. My ego is not so large that I would expose myself to this knowingly. If I am unrecruited traitor then all I would have to do is avoid voting End, not start a conversation about town play that I know that scum will not understand.

fp
Consider this, I was sending hints to Endgame (a player I believe to be town) and IB (confirmed town) that I knew only Mars would also understand.

Endgame wrote:Why is mars not in the group you listed as possible scum wing?


Rereading D1, you have a point. He made good points about White Rose, but didnt follow with a vote till much later. Mars can go into my mafia group alongside Boss, Mitch, Rizky, AnaManiac.

Mars wrote:Now I feel like you're actively provoking her to get a reaction.


Nah, her reactions are already blatantly obvious. Yes there is one scum amongst the two of us.

Wing wrote:I find it really, really weird that you are counting yourself as a scum candidate.


I am being honest, I cannot claim town cred for my D1 play, so I am not doing so.

Rizky wrote:Don't think she would have interacted the way she has with anam and mitch if they were her scum buddies it would be way too obvious


It is obvious, stop outthinking yourself. You have spent the entire day ignoring the obvious and trying to find some obscure case. Why? The obvious is quite often correct, and at the very least should be investigated.

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