anamainiacks wrote:If dakky is town and none of the scum are on my wagon, I think they'd be holding off from hopping on for now, waiting till closer to the deadline, just to be able to show on later days that they were "hesitant" to join in lynching a townie, and they weren't the ones pushing a town lynch. Which is why a diversion onto a another townie case would be a nice move for them - still no risk of them getting lynched, but build momentum on an alternative case - which is possibly what's happening with WCG's wagon. So since I'm reading rizky as town, I'm looking at bosaa and/or mitch. They've squabbled with each other recently though, so I don't know if they can be a pair.
Interesting theory. There's one point I disagree on, though - if scum did hold off on your wagon, I don't think they'll be jumping in to hammer last minute because of IB. He's created a bit of a dilemma for them, since you're his only publicly noted scumread. If you're scum, they want to not lose another member. If you're town, they want you to survive to take the shot for them, because it's unclear who he might shoot at night. I agree that if you are correct, bosaa is the safer lynch, but I have to ask the question, at what point do we lynch mitch if he is scum? It seems dangerous to wait until LYLO, but letting him live as scum would confuse us further.
WingCmdr Ginkapo wrote:What? Thats not even true. Mafia didnt have to take both bulletproof and one shot ninja and is irrelevant of whether the traitor was recruited as they can choose three power roles. What is this twaddle?
@Mars - I was away for a long weekend, there was no prepared statement. As I said I find it hard to read through all the game on my tablet. No idea what on earth you are on about.
How do you explain Dakky pushing the White Rose case all D1 if he isnt town? Have you looked at all the facts or just found an error in the last page and leapt on it?
After thinking about it at work, I am willing to concede the following points: 1) mafia taking both BP and unrecruited traitor is, while technically possible, a terrible play on their part and is highly unlikely. Because rose flipped goon, the only ways this is possible is if a) mafia took BP and hoped for 25% vig chance, or b) mafia took day chat and BP and hoped for 50% vig chance, both while ignoring the guaranteed cop and bodyguard that everyone expected to be present in the setup. 2) Arguing whether or not your post was pre-written is a moot point, since there is no way to prove it. It is unclear when you left for your long weekend and what you posted from your computer vs your tablet, but you did post after hammer but before lynch scene. One thing in your favour is that if you are mafia, you likely would have at least read over it before posting, but not factoring in anything involving D2, including things you had commented on, has not convinced me yet that it WASN'T pre-written. Yesterday I felt like I didn't have anything solid enough to push a vote on to you and that bosaa's case and mitch's case(?) were flimsy. Today I felt like you were being flippant and dismissive about those cases, but I do like your reply to rizky.
As for dakky's push on Rose, here's how I see it. After his obligatory joke vote on dakky, he puts a vote on rose for a joke vote on the mod. He them lets the vote sit there for 4 days (morning of Nov5 to evening of Nov9 my time). Rose was not posting anything of substance, so dakky had no way to back off. Nov 10 he makes 2 posts, then disappears again until after the hammer. Hardly what I would call a push. Also, he does not really pay attention to any other player but rose, with the exception of this OMGUS-y post:
dakky21 wrote:anamainiacks wrote:As mentioned in my earlier post, I'm still not convinced by dakky.
Vote dakky21, but as things stand, I would be equally fine with a TWR lynch.
I guess you would be equally fine for anyone's lynch ... that makes you, well, you know what...
If Dakky is mafia, an early vote on a partner could be easy town cred later. In fact, he accuses End of doing just that in his first post D2. Those are my thoughts on Dakky's D1 play, so yes, I reviewed my facts.
As for Dakky's D2 plays, I did find an error and jump on it. If there's a hole in somebody's argument, you attack it and see if the logic still holds. This is what made me go back and review Dakky. Not considering that he did his default "vote mitch" until IB gave a read, he basically decided to follow the confirmed townie instead of doing his own reads, and I think that really shows in his scumslip. His reply was lacking, too.
dakky21 wrote:Ana almost convinced me he is town. I still think he is scum. Simple as that.
With some more work from his side, I may change my vote.
There was no point where he acknowledges what makes him almost think ana is town and why he still thinks ana is scum - in fact, he says to not question him. His slip also mentions ana as scum and town in present tense, and does not anywhere imply that he had read ana as town but changed his mind.
By the way, while IB's reads could be wrong, I don't see why wouldn't I stick to the town vig reads if I agree with them?
There's no problem, if your reads line up. But from dakky's first vote on ana, he says 3 times that he's doing it because he's following IB, and with nothing else to go on, we can't believe that he agrees on them for any reason other than they're coming from a confirmed townie.
dakky21 wrote:I'm going to follow only confirmed town player. Though, still not sure about the third scum, could be mitch or boss.
dakky21 wrote:maybe Wing is scum instead of you, but we won't know until you get lynched... I will switch my vote to Wing if IB decides to switch, but until then you're my no.1 suspect.
dakky21 wrote:Because I say so. When I think someone is mafia, I say what I think, and don't question me.. anyway, my two top scum reads are you and wing, possibly endgame, we didn't heared from Marashu and madmitch for some time as well, so all of you could me mafia... Anamainiacks you're leaning town for me but I'll stick to the town vig reads...
The problem is, if dakky is scum, hiding behing IB is making it tough to figure out his scumbuddy, especially after tunneling on rose D1, but if his partner was unrecruited traitor, then it wouldn't matter. End/dakky doesn't make sense to me, and I'm still reading End as town. Likewise with rizky/dakky. Dakky/anam would be weird, but dakky tunneled rose D1, so if mafia, there technically is precedent (though I doubt that mafia would try to bus both partners as hard and fast as possible) I can still see Wing/Dakky being possible. mitch/dakky would be hilarious, and would explain why the two are only putting token interest in each other. Bosaa/dakky could be possible, as well - bosaa townread dakky at the start of D2 then backpedalled real hard; not only saying that he and End might not be town, but that they might as well be scum:
bosaardbeitje wrote:One thing that has changed already is that I can't assume that Dakky and End are automatically innocent. I didn't think that through. They might as well be scum. There were 3 mafiosos D1, so maybe losing 1 of them wasn't that big a deal.
I would be curious to know whether she means losing 1 mafia wasn't a big deal for town or for mafia.
@bosaa - why do you think End is scum, besides by association with Wing?
@mitch - I'm still curious to hear your thoughts on if you think the traitor was recruited and why.
@wing - Your read on bosaa was based on ana being scum. If bosaa is scum but ana isn't, who is the other mafia? And I know you quoted bosaa saying there's a case in there, but I'm not seeing it.
) Mitch is called Mad for a reason, you can expect all kinds of things from him, including dragging out the joke vote stage. So far I haven't seen him doing anything that makes me want to put him on my suspect list, but then again he's difficult to read.
who wants to join my bw? 
