Samlen wrote:Skoffin wrote:There's no reason to actively keep survivors alive, but there is absolutely no reason to actively target survivors over scum. The only valid reason to vote Benga is if we believe he is scum, any 'he may just be a survivor' is wasting towns time and an easy excuse for scum to make for lynching non-scum. Survivors are high value for scum members, which leads into the stuff fircoal posted[/color]
A claimed survivor is only a liability at this point. The only thing a survivor can do for the town is take a hit from the mafia, which since he has claimed survivor, the mafia will not target them. He is now simply a ticking time bomb waiting to go off for whenever we hit mylo, at which point we loose instead of having another chance. It is absolutely better to lynch scum than a survivor, but if it ever gets to mylo, he is just as bad as scum, and we don't have any solid info on scum right now. Or, he is lying and is scum that we should lynch anyways.
Skittles! wrote:Interesting development here. I don't think it's worth town's vote on a survivor on day 1, as Skoffin said with the amount of people in this game it will (hopefully) be numerous days and nights long. So anyone who is going after benga right now has a FOS on them from me because I just don't think he is the best candidate for lynching.
You say it's not worth our vote on day 1 as though it'd be worth voting him later, which doesn't make sense. This is the day we have the smallest amount of info making this the day that we most likely lynch town. Having a guaranteed non-town lynch is great for day 1. And if we try to save lynching him for a later day, we might accidentally move into mylo and loose before lynching him.
Overall, the only reason to NOT lynch a survivor claim is if we either find someone more likely to be scum or if we think they are somehow town. It's day 1 and we have a timer so it's not super likely that we'll find actual scum by the deadline.
I don't think we will gain any new information if we lynch benga if he is a survivor. I am sure if we go over the previous pages and try and find a slip then there will be one. I don't think it's wise to lynch so early anyway, because there is always information to learn on Day 1. I am a bit iffy about the claim, but I still think we can get more info from other sources.
Fircoal wrote:Skoffin wrote:Nooope. I don't view it much like a neutral position as you do. Yes, survivor can aid scum later on, but first you are assuming that a survivor is going to do that. And besides which, with the amount of players we have, we have multiple days/nights to determine what to do with him and when. We may have a vig on our side, in which case they can take him out if need be. We'd need at least 1 night to determine if we do or do not have a vig, however. And there is a chance that someone may develop vig powers later on, in which case they can be aiming for known scum or taking out neutral third parties instead of risking hitting town.
Now as to why survivors are high value to scum; there is the obvious 'they can side with them angle', however there is also the fact that survivors do not count in the town pool and the fact that people lynching survivors if oft seen as no big deal. A scum voting/lynching a town member is risky, a scum voting/lynching a survivor is not. Scum voting for survivor claims is good for them as they are not voting their partners and no one really learns much voting a survivor as no one cares about them.
Anyway, we are arguing too much about semantics. you either believe Benga is third party - in which case you are scum for voting him. Or you believe he is scum pretending to be third party - in which case call him scum, don't make reasons as to why it's okay to vote third parties.
It's not black and white though. You're putting the picture as if we know that what benga is. But we don't actually know. My point isn't "Ok let's go vote survivors, we'll totally win that way!" My point is that unless you are sure that benga is a survivor it makes sense to try to lynch him. Personally to me his claim seems weird. I honestly don't know much about Civ be hearing that they're only in an expansion makes me doubtful of his claim. Furthermore I still am not sure if MM would put in a survivor. If I believed his claim I'd leave him alone.
I disagree that no one learns anything because there is still a lynch to analyize. There are reasons given and posts made. These all give information. You can't just ignore them.
If we lynch a survivor, and then lose a town, what do we actually gain? Nothing, except making it harder to lynch scum imo.
Fircoal wrote:Skittles! wrote:Interesting development here. I don't think it's worth town's vote on a survivor on day 1, as Skoffin said with the amount of people in this game it will (hopefully) be numerous days and nights long. So anyone who is going after benga right now has a FOS on them from me because I just don't think he is the best candidate for lynching.
Why isn't he the best candidate for lynching? Who out there is scummy enough that you think they are a better candidate for a lynch? How sure are you that benga is a survivor?
As I just stated, I don't think we should just jump the gun and vote for him straight away. He got scared, claimed survivor. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen, but on Day 1 which is the most important day, I don't think it's worth our time to vote for a survivor claim
Fircoal wrote:Skittles! wrote:As for Fircoal.. interesting that you are sitting so much on the fence and haven't in your long essays stated that you are town specifically. I'm not asking for reveal of your role but you are juggling a fine line between the essence of town and scum.
...wut? How am I sitting on the fence? I'm making repeated cases for why benga being a good lynch target. Like I'm not even sure where you're getting that from. Also what do you want me to do? I'm not going to reveal my role, and I have made subtle slight hints towards the information that is in the know. I'm just not sure what you're expecting from me?
After re-reading this quote
Fircoal wrote:Ragian wrote:Whom does killing a 3rd party benefit D1? Town or scum? I'd think scum since town starts all over tomorrow without any real information apart from Benga's flip. It doesn't give too much intel on who is scum as I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow?
I don't think so. Think about it this way, what do survivors look like to scum? While scum are able to know who is scum and who isn't, they have no idea what the roles of the people who aren't scum are. Thusly to them they are going to assume that a survivor is a town member. The way they act will be affected with that in mind, not with the idea that Benga is a survivor. So in theory it should be able to tell us just as much as a town lynch since both the town and scum would be playing it the same way. However it comes with the benefit of lynching survivor instead of town. So it does come with information.
That said the thing that need to be accounted for is the missed lynch opportunity (that is the extra chance that we could have had to lynch scum). Which is a bit the main reason it's not just a net good for town. I'd probably say it's more of a toss up, a push. Scum are happy that one of their own didn't die while town are alright that their numbers are still mostly intact while they get some information.
Of course this is if the player lynched is a survivor.
The thing is Banga made it weird by claiming what he was very early on. The thing is, unless you think it's 80%+ likely that he's a survivor there's no reason not to vote for him. There isn't really much of a loss with a survivor death, while there is a great gain with a scum death. So there isn't really much risk.
Yes obviously you are pushing for the benga lynch, but you are not actually aligning yourself to town's interests imo. This idea that towns numbers will be intact after lynching benga is false, as mafia will kill a town member, and if there is a SK (like say, Gandhi) then that may put town -2. And for what? A possible survivor. You are pushing hard for benga and I'm not exactly sure why.
