[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[dd515087]

Kinda confused by your tone, would you rather we don't take a look at who voted for who? DD is kind of interesting because of where he jumped on the day 3 wagon. The cop check was fairly solid early in the day, so to be only hopping on at the very end (i unvoted and revoted for conversation sake as did Storr, which is why he isnt on there) seems worth pointing out.

I unvoted and revoted for conversation's sake as well. I was pushing for Endgame the whole time.

[sempaispellcheck]

I have decided that I won't use both votes at once unless I'm set on lynching someone, and I wasn't 100% set on lynching you yet.
In fact, I'm going to UNVOTE you and VOTE Talapus because, as has been pointed out already by several people, he has seemed pretty scummy of late.
What stands out to me, of course, is his seeing Ragian's name claim as more trustworthy than degaston's cop check without real proof of such. The whole cult/masons discussion that came after (with the subsequent very slight case of OMGUS) also doesn't help his case in my eyes.

I would like to come back to End eventually, though - Mundungus Fletcher (or "Dung," as he is appropriately known in the books) is not exactly the most trustworthy of characters, and he has seemed pretty scummy.

sempai

[StorrZerg]

Sempai stop trying to analyze names with alignment.

[sempaispellcheck]

Will await further developments before casting my Patronus.
@Storr - meh.

sempai

[got tonkaed]

Sempai stop trying to analyze names with alignment.

I don't know that i have a problem with names and alignment as for the most part the actual names have made sense. We just don't have fake claims figured out yet.

[got tonkaed]

I guess by extension to answer your question storr, at this point I am not personally against the idea of a mass name claim, but I do not expect it to happen.

[aage]

Kinda confused by your tone, would you rather we don't take a look at who voted for who? DD is kind of interesting because of where he jumped on the day 3 wagon. The cop check was fairly solid early in the day, so to be only hopping on at the very end (i unvoted and revoted for conversation sake as did Storr, which is why he isnt on there) seems worth pointing out.

It's good to see who voted for who, but you only look at the end lynching wagon of each day, not at how the day developed. Hence why I called it a rudimentary wagon analysis. DD hopping on late with the Ragian wagon would be slightly scummy, I agree. I don't see how his hopping early on the town wagons is scummy though. In fact, he is third to vote Pershy and second to vote Skill. That's not even bandwagoning, and it's certainly not "hopping on as scum near the end" as you said (although you're right about the Ragian wagon).

IDK. It's a very easy analysis with a very easy conclusion. In my experience scum isn't usually that reckless.
I'll soft-defend DD here for a bit, because I don't think your argument is logical. I also believe DD is town though, because I think I found his rolehints. Not gonna post them, if DD wants to remain obscure i'm fine with that. I don't think he should be pushed for a claim regardless, your case based on this voting pattern is thoroughly flawed.
Beforehand you assume that there is scum on both lynching wagons - nothing wrong with that assumption, it's possible. The problem is that the wagons didn't evolve in a similar way: the day 1 wagon was a mess, day 2 was far more organised. You also assume that being on all three wagons is scummy. The problem here is not only that the D1 and D2 wagons differ so much, but also that the D3 wagon was on a mafia. Being on all three wagons therefore doesn't necessarily become alignment indicative. Therefore it becomes a problem that you also assume that there has to be scum between these four voters; you eliminate Sempai based on his role, and you eliminate me based on your read of me, which means DD and Endgame must be scum.

This is what we know and/or assume. Ragian (who flipped scum) is on none of the town wagons. On day 1 we have Strike V1 and Deg voting late on Pershy, both flipped town, and Sempai who is very probably town. Day two, Mets and Strike are on the wagon eary, both are town or very likely town, Wing who is 3rd party, Mitch who claims Ron and again Sempai. I am on both too, but you said you think I'm town. So the votes look like this:

D1
pershy - dazza, dd, Storr, Endgame, sempai, sempai, SW, aage, deg
Everyone who hopped on Pershy late you read as town or is confirmed town. You seem to conclude that the early hoppers must be scum ("DD is on both of the town lynches pretty early" ~Tonkaed); DD is on all three wagons and he is an early hopper on this one, therefore he is the most suspicious. DD said when he voted that he did not believe in a Degaston lynch... With Deg's town flip, you can't fault him for that.

Here's the problem: there were two wagons going on at the same time on two town power roles. Let's look at the wagon on Deg.
degaston - metsfan, mtam, tonkaed, skill, floyd, BG
5 out of 6 either dead and confirmed not mafia, or alive and likely town. BG was replaced by Strike v2.0, Floyd was replaced Wings. You probably assume yourself to be town, so that makes 6 out of 6 from your perspective. But I must ask, why would the mafia switch from voting Deg to voting Pershy? We know their roles now, and we know that for mafia it didn't matter; both of them were not scum, and both of them claimed a town power role, and they both eventually flipped as that role. DD's vote switch to Pershy, followed by Storr's vote switch, sparked the re-wagon on Pershy. I don't think this is a move scum would make because they didn't have to make it. The end of day 1 was very close, and all scum had to do was sit on their hands and wait until one of the two PRs died. (This is possibly exactly what you did, for the record.) You do suggest it is a scummy move to switch to Pershy - and the only reason you seem to give is that it's a wagon on a townie. Problem: they both were wagons on townies. Calling someone scummy for being on this wagon becomes "damned if you do, damned if you don't".


D2
skill - Strike, dd, Metsp, mitch, Streaker, Endgame, virus, Wing, Talapus, sempai, aage, sempai
The skillfu wagon on the other hand has 3 town in the first four votes. This doesn't correspond to your analysis of the Pershy wagon, since you assumed earlier that the early hoppers are scummy. If you assume beforehand that early hoppers are scummy, then you eliminate the known/likely towns, DD as scum is a logical conclusion, but you don't explain why you assume beforehand that the early voters are scummy. This is important because most of the early voters aren't scum - they're town.


D3
Ragian - Daz, sempai, mtam, Streaker, aage, Endgame, mitch, charm, dd, tonka

This is the third time that your suspects DD and Endgame are on the same wagon. Having the two of them as suspects is strange though, and here's why. DD hopped on late because he spent pretty much all of D3 campaigning to get Endgame lynched. You can see his case on the bottom of page 72, it's pretty detailed. I don't read his late vote on Ragian as reluctant scum voting a teammate at the last possible moment, nor as scum snagging town cred by ditching his teammate. In fact, in this post he voted as one of the first, and said here that he would rather go into night phase asap. When consensus becomes that we should use the time to discuss other cases, he goes after Endgame.



Tl;dr: you skimmed the entire history of DD's vote and made bad assumptions, and therefore made the wrong conclusions. And yes, I do think that this makes you scummy.



FP by a few
Yes, I am also definitely in favour of pressuring Talapus for a claim. Vote Talapus.

[got tonkaed]

I think you are overstating how much of a case I am trying to make on either one of them being scummy to be blunt.

[aage]

So then what's this, if not singling out Endgame and DD as scummy?

D1
pershy - dazza, dd, Storr, Endgame, sempai, sempai, SW, aage, deg

D2
skill - Strike, dd, Mets, mitch, Streaker, Endgame, virus, Wing, Talapus, sempai, aage, sempai

D3
Ragian - Daz, sempai, mtam, Streaker, aage, Endgame, mitch, charm, dd, tonka

Bolded people on all 3 wagons. Out of all of these I'd argue the one who might have hopped on as scum near the end would be Endgame or DD. DD is on both of the town lynches pretty early.

[got tonkaed]

Also please quote me where I said scum had to be on the lynches. You bolded something in your analysis that I flat out never said. I think if you go back to the post where I put in the end of day wagons, I am pretty clear about saying maybe someone hopped on as scum.

Considering I didn't have a vote on Endgame or DD, I think you may be protesting too much.

FP it is literally following up on strikes point about people voting. That was the only reasno why I did it.

[got tonkaed]

Does the phrase one who might have hopped on as scum sound like a definitive claim to you?

I am being pretty clear here, I don't know, I was simply presenting a voting pattern to discuss. I think you did a good job of putting the why behind things and how the wagons differed, which makes a lot of sense.

[got tonkaed]

The secret vote was pretty much agreed to be Scum by the time of Ragian's lynch anyways so there wasn't much point for mafia to dig the nail in any deeper than they already did. So I don't find the absence of said vote to be indication that scum (or at least some scum) weren't trying to hop on the Rage lynch to distance themselves. In fact, I would say it is likely that if scum were bussing him than they could have been eager to do so quickly. It is quite possible that mafia initially had a split reaction to this but I would think that those who were active during the course of the lynch even if they never joined probably made little effort to call Rage town or otherwise defend him.

My reason for posting the end of day votes.

[aage]

Does the phrase one who might have hopped on as scum sound like a definitive claim to you?

I am being pretty clear here, I don't know, I was simply presenting a voting pattern to discuss. I think you did a good job of putting the why behind things and how the wagons differed, which makes a lot of sense.

I had noted that you have a history of going after DD.. I'll reread your posts from D2/3 again to check that. The definitive claim point is true, I bolded it because that's how I interpreted your post; I didn't realise it was a response to Strike.

[got tonkaed]

I guess my whole question with scum busing Ragian is the fact that the stole vote did not end up getting put on Ragian. For me, if scum wanted to distance themselves or make it more confusing, the stolen vote would have ended up on there but it never did. So I don't know that I necessarily believe they were hopping on there to protect themselves.

Either way, the fact that we more or less had a cop check makes anyone who didnt vote a little worse off in my eyes.

Bolded is me on p89. My first post in regards to who is on what wagon. Everything after that was in response to strike. I haven't been interested in endgame after the claim and I agree with you in regards to DD after he breadcrumbed.

I don't really think that history is there at least not off memory, but the only real reason I can think of going for DD at this point would probably be off the idea that Dumbledore turned up as a safe claim (assuming no one is hiding out)

[Talapus]

FP by a few
Yes, I am also definitely in favour of pressuring Talapus for a claim. Vote Talapus.

I love how people read in this game. I said I'd claim without the vote pressure

I'm Sirius Black...As I have already said in my opinion a rather bit roll in the books.

[aage]

Just finished rereading your D3 posts and concluded that I mixed up you going after Mudpuppy rather than DD. Kind of screwing over my total read of the game, although I had a scum read on you before this incident. I'll get back to this later.

I haven't been interested in endgame after the claim

Do you believe his claim or do you consider him to be a valid lynch for today?


Fp
Talap, that's a nameclaim. I added pressure because I would like a full claim. Just saying you're Sirius Black doesn't prove anything.

[Talapus]

Just finished rereading your D3 posts and concluded that I mixed up you going after Mudpuppy rather than DD. Kind of screwing over my total read of the game, although I had a scum read on you before this incident. I'll get back to this later.

I haven't been interested in endgame after the claim

Do you believe his claim or do you consider him to be a valid lynch for today?


Fp
Talap, that's a nameclaim. I added pressure because I would like a full claim. Just saying you're Sirius Black doesn't prove anything.

Claiming the rest doesn't prove jack either but ok, give me a second to type this up because I will have to explain as I'm sure this will open the day up for conversation.

[got tonkaed]

Endgame should not be lynched today in my opinion. Peripheral characters have more or less checked out, and Endgame's character would seem to be town aligned.

Hanging around for more info on Talapus before deciding where Id go next.

Would probably still consider virus simply because it would be good to find something out about those notes. Also going back to vote counts to see if I can find anything.

I find it odd that Hotshot felt the need to vote for neither of those players right before the deadline d1. What was the point of voting storr with 0 votes on him right before deadline?

[Talapus]

Ok, I'm sure peeps will jump all over this but if you seriously go back and reread my posts I'm sure you will see some of my reasoning regardless of whether or not you agree with it.

Here goes. First of noting in my role suggests a wand but as I cast a spell I assume I have one? Not sure.

I cast Legilimens.

Each night I am able to send a message to a player of my choice saying anything I want. I am the one who has sent out the weird messages the last two nights..

D1 I got into the argument with storr about how I thought is was bs that he would play towards town just because he was third party. So knew I wanted to send a message his way and clear his alligence in my mind at least. Being day one it was damn hard to think of a message I could send that would prove it. As the people I write letters too through the mod are sent anonymously, unless I put my name in the message, they wouldn't know it is from me. On top of this, they are not allowed to respond to me via message. So, I decided to write a vague message that looked scummy but that people would talk about.

So, I sent a vague message to storr that sounded like something he might find in the school hallways. I mentioned Streaker not because I know he is scum or not, but to push the conversation D2 somewhere. I left the message weird enough to hopefully make it so they wouldn't bandwagon Streaker and sure enough players got suspicious enough before a bandwagon really started. Streaker supposedly claimed, but had more dumped vote on him before questioning the message I would have jumped in and confessed.

Now with D2 it was easier as I used close to the same format for the reason being most players were already questioning it. I sent it the charm as charm was a topic for much of the first few days and in fact did list Virus. The reason being is if charm truly was scum in my mind and so was virus charm would have claimed a different name received in the message. Charm did not change my message at all but quoted it exactly, so made me kind of believe charm too is town. Virus I have no idea.

Before you ask no I am not cult. I am town with something like a mason ability. Thus this led to the whole conversation about how I was worried cult or the three main characters may be able to communicate via some mechanic as I certainly can. Obviously no one was buying that even though it was true.

I'm sure my bandwagon will bowl me over now as some will find this suspicious or I die in the night but do with this knowledge what you want. I stand by my choices regardless of whether or not's it's how you would have used the power...sorry.

[Talapus]

Oh yes, Unvote

[aage]

Your messages seem to have arrived a day too late though. You say you sent the message to Storr after D1 and before D2, i.e. N1. Storr claimed he received a message on D3. Care to comment on that?

[aage]

Also, just to note, flavour-wise Sirius has no connection to this spell. Legilimency was practised mainly by Snape and You Know Who in the books, source.

[got tonkaed]

It also is odd that flavor wise despite the fact that Talapus points out they could have sent whatever they wanted as a message, they were both quite voldemorty in tone.

[Talapus]

Your messages seem to have arrived a day too late though. You say you sent the message to Storr after D1 and before D2, i.e. N1. Storr claimed he received a message on D3. Care to comment on that?

The very first game night I sent no message because I didn't know what to think. I worded the messages the way I did to make them all sound like they were too late. Also the same misspellings and the players name twice. Had to make them look odd enough you guys would question them.

[aage]

Also, just to note, flavour-wise Sirius has no connection to this spell. Legilimency was practised mainly by Snape and You Know Who in the books, source.

The correct source - the other link isn't about the spell but the mental ability.

Fp by Talap
You mixed up D1 and D2, and D2 and D3 in your post? And why wouldn't you use your message power to communicate to Storr N1? I don't recall you changing your opinion of him thoroughly during D2.