HP: fight for freedom. Game over. Wizards won.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Okay, I'm going to reply to posts as I can...time crunch, so pardon any double/triple posts...

So.we're discarding my investigation as inaccurate or useless or do you think I am lying?

Did it say wizard....or innocent?

Sussex=town wizards. non-sussex indicates non wizards characters. death eater=mafia. technically Fenrir is a werewolf and a death eater. if he can use magic I don't think it was specified in the book. the voldemort lynch scene confirms that Fenrir is in the game.

I don't get WTH you posted here...can you simply answer what your message said about everywhere? i'm a little slow.

Sorry I was posting on my phone. Didn't realize until now that it apparently thinks Wizard should be Sussex.

You were asking if it came back wizard or innocent. I'm telling you both because there's no difference.

If you truly believe this, then why haven't you voted for IB? He came back from chap as non wizard...

[chapcrap]

If you truly believe this, then why haven't you voted for IB? He came back from chap as non wizard...

unvote vote IB

I think this is the best option, because I never truly 100% believed him anyway. And if he is telling the truth, it's just a third party person that is gone.

[Nebuchadnezer]

1. @DJ - I'm not really buying your Alt case. He states his opinions, and was quite clear on why he was voting how he was. You're taking someone else's post and trying to apply it to Alt. I see what you're doing, but I'm not buying it.

This to me is a very telling post. Neb says "Hes pretty much a VT now anyways"

First why would he tell someone else to vote unless he believes the same? IF that is the case one would think that Neb would vote as well. He seems to be letting someone else to take the lead. IF a bandwagon develops he can then jump on without notice.

More importantly he implies I am a VT. He is trying to minimize my NA and makes it seem like lynching me would not be a loss to Town. At this point in the game any loss oF town is a huge loss. My NA ceases to work only iF all the Deatheaters are dead, which in a roundabout way he implies.

We had 18 players. We have Found only 3 Deatheaters and a 3rd party. I always like to play by the one third rule. I play with the assumption that Mafia/antitown comprise one third oF player base. We may have a were wolF and we may not. It is my opinion that there are two Deatheaters leFt.

Why would Neb consider me a VT unless he has inFormation we don't have?

1. I totally forgot you can hunt ANY deatheater. Your focus has been on Voldemort for the last few days, that I totally forgot you can target ANY deatheater. My bad. I'm sure you've researched who could be here, and will target appropriately. Good luck.
2. I do NOT believe you are a deatheater. I wanted Chap to put his money where his mouth is. The same thing you accuse me of, is what I was getting at with Chap. He was putting evidence against you, but not voting.
3. I would say 1 deatheater for sure, possible two. If there are two, we have to worry about who's working together, eh?

More later.

Fastposted by Chap...thus nullifying my point #2...

[strike wolf]

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

[chapcrap]

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

Does that make you believe that IB is telling the truth?

[Iron Butterfly]

If you truly believe this, then why haven't you voted for IB? He came back from chap as non wizard...

unvote vote IB

I think this is the best option, because I never truly 100% believed him anyway. And if he is telling the truth, it's just a third party person that is gone.

You have never let the factual evidence get in the way of your opinions.

I am Town NOT third party. I have stated this in the past.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

Does that make you believe that IB is telling the truth?

The only way IB could hurt us, is if he is in fact some third party recruiter...which I doubt he is. How else does he find deatheaters by investigation? If he was deatheater, your investigation would have come up "death eater" would it not? Also, if he was a third party recruiter, he would not only be able to recruit, but also able to track deatheaters? That's one powerful player. Nah...I tend to believe him, and his actions add up.

Move on.

[spiesr]

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

The mod has confirmed that you are actually capable of getting all three of these results? Chapcrap, can you do the same?

[strike wolf]

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

The mod has confirmed that you are actually capable of getting all three of these results? Chapcrap, can you do the same?

I asked him what the possible results were and that was what he confirmed. he did not confirm I could get those results.

[chapcrap]

If you truly believe this, then why haven't you voted for IB? He came back from chap as non wizard...

unvote vote IB

I think this is the best option, because I never truly 100% believed him anyway. And if he is telling the truth, it's just a third party person that is gone.

You have never let the factual evidence get in the way of your opinions.

I am Town NOT third party. I have stated this in the past.

Oh, then I misunderstood before and I definitely don't believe you.

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

Does that make you believe that IB is telling the truth?

The only way IB could hurt us, is if he is in fact some third party recruiter...which I doubt he is. How else does he find deatheaters by investigation? If he was deatheater, your investigation would have come up "death eater" would it not? Also, if he was a third party recruiter, he would not only be able to recruit, but also able to track deatheaters? That's one powerful player. Nah...I tend to believe him, and his actions add up.

I don't see why it would have to come up Death Eater. Is that in the rules somewhere? And you can't just combine everything that everyone thinks he might be. If he's a recruiter, then he obviously lied about his night action. Think about it.

I think others need to read what I've said again. not a Sussex does not necessarily equal deatheater. I can get 3 possible results:

1. Wizard
2. Non-wizard
3. death eater.

The mod has confirmed that you are actually capable of getting all three of these results? Chapcrap, can you do the same?

I don't know if the mod told strike wolf that or not. I never got any information that said what results were possible.

[strike wolf]

Did you ask him the possible results? It wasn't in my role pm,, I had to ask and got it in a separate pm.

[alt1978]

strikewolf could also be mafia...and be fictionalizing an account of a conversation with the mod to frame IB and or chap.

To me...testing strikewolf's results seems like the most pressing issue. If he is an auror wizard...that is certainly a power role...one that we don't need to go after to try and lynch. His investigations are going to be important.

Is it worth testing his claims by putting some pressure on everywhere?

Everywhere was his last investigation...it makes sense to me to check into that. Everywhere has at times been aggressive at starting wagons (The IB one in particular). Everywhere stands out to me as a question mark...and it would provide the added bonus of helping lock up strikewolf's claim as auror.

Given IB's case of suspicions that he built against neb...I'm not sure how much stock he puts in strike's investigations either. I don't want to speak for IB...but that case certainly ignores Strike investigating neb twice (which is also a bit strange but with the busdriver bit i guess is perhaps believable).

To DJ,
I think the above line of reasoning makes sense if you want to test me as well. Since Strike cleared me with investigation...obviously it takes heat off of me if strike is cleared and his investigations are found to be accurate.

[spiesr]

I don't know if the mod told strike wolf that or not. I never got any information that said what results were possible.

It might be best if you check to see what the possible results are. I don't expect what you come back with to be any different than what Strikewolf said, but if would be pretty important if it is.

That said, I am now left to question why exactly the investigation results system has the separate categories of "wizard" and "not a wizard." If "Deatheater" is the standard response for a scum results, and if Iron Butterfly is telling the truth about being town, and not some sort of third party, then why would there need to be two different results for investigating town aligned players when the only apparent difference between a town wizard and a town non-wizard seems to be flavor. That just doesn't make sense to me.
So that leaves me with the following scenarios that I consider plausible on the matter.
1. There is some sort of significant game relevant difference between a wizard and a non-wizard despite them having the same alignment. (This brings me to a question. Iron Butterfly, I don't think I can actually ask you what your win condition is within the rules, but can you tell me if you believe it to be the same as that of the wizard townies
2. Iron Butterfly is lying about being town and belongs to some sort of faction apart from the town and deatheaters. (I current suspect this as the most likely possibility pending the outcome of a few questions. If this is the case, then the next question is "is he a threat to the town?" His lying about is alignment would seem to point us in the direction of it not being one the town would find acceptable. The followup to that question is the matter of should we consider lynching him today or leave him for latter and try to get an actual deatheater lynch.)
3. This is no important difference between wizard and non-wizard and Freezie either got sloppy and made them have distinct results by mistake or poor planning, or Freezie made the different results just to f*ck with us.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Okay, I have to clear my head up as to what we know...


Alive:

1) Nebuchadnezer – unclaimed, investigated twice by Strike Wolf, came up wizard both times.
2) Chapcrap – Professor McGonigal, JOAT; Night one investigated Iron Butterfly (got Non-wizard); attempted to kill Iron Butterfly night 2...Iron’s still alive, so?; night 3 tracked Neb, got role blocked. So, I’ve asked this before and never got an answer...Chap, who have you used your Track ability on, and what else can you do?3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.
4) Strike Wolf – Kingsley Shacklebolt, cop. N1 Hippo, innocent. N2 Neb, innocent. N3 Spiesr, innocent. N4 Neb, innocent. N5 Alt1978, innocent. N6 Everywhere, innocent.
8 ) Victor SullivanReplaced by Everywhere116 - ?
9) Spiesr - ?????
13) Mc05025 – James Potter, double voter.
15) DJfireside – Ginny Weasley, super double secret backup role, that would kill us all if DJ reveals it (or so he acts like it)
17) Alt - ?????
18) Iron Butterfly – Firenze, Death Eater Hunter (for lack of better term). Found Dazza on night one. Either was blocked on second investigation, or never used it??

So, again, here are my conclusions. If we trust that Strike Wolf is telling the truth, then we have the following:

Clear:

1. Strike Wolf – This assumption is built on him being the cop...so we have to assume he’s clear.
2. Neb – two investigations coming back innocent.
3. Alt1978 – investigate as innocent.
4. Spiesr – investigated as innocent.
5. Everywhere – investigated as innocent.

Not cleared, but look town:
1. Iron Butterfly – killed busdriver, been pretty good at chasing mafia.
2. Tails – He seems to be town. His night actions make sense. He’s paired up with MC05025, and his counter part, Lily.
3. MC05025 – The only thing saving him is his claim. Otherwise he’s disappeared from this game. Drops in to make a small comment and then nothing.

Cases could be made against:
1. Chapcrap – claims JOAT, but can’t accept his own investigation of Iron as “not a wizard”, when Strike clearly state the three options of “wizard” “not a wizard” and “death eater.”
2. DJfireside – unforced claim, and has an unknown condition “if something happens” Well, I’d like to not be kept in the dark here...seems fishy.
I can also make a ton of WIFOM arguments, but then everyone is scum to me, and we get into a paranoid mentality.

However, I would really like to know who Everywhere and Spiesr are. I can’t reconcile those two being town with how they’ve played. Everywhere is my #1 at this point. Or course, that means that Strike is lying, or is a naive cop.

I’m keeping my vote on Everywhere...

Fastposted by Chapcrap...Holy cow! So you think Iron got lucky and found Dazza by a sheer luck guess? Or do you think he's a third party recruiter that also had investigative powers and death eater killing powers? Quite a powerful role, no?

Fastposed by spiesr...no comment.

[spiesr]

strikewolf could also be mafia...and be fictionalizing an account of a conversation with the mod to frame IB and or chap.

There are other, albeit unlikely, possibilities as well, however, pending some results they are best left mysterious.

To me...testing strikewolf's results seems like the most pressing issue. If he is an auror wizard...that is certainly a power role...one that we don't need to go after to try and lynch. His investigations are going to be important.

You seem awfully keen on "testing" Strike's claim. Do you simply not believe him? Or, are you so worried about the possibility of him being naive that you don't consider his results to be worth anything until you somehow disprove this possibility. Please note that "testing" it is much less feasible than you seem to think. Say we lynch someone that was amoung the he listed as Wizards. The most likely result of doing so is that said person comes up as a wizard, which proves absolutely nothing about Strike's claim. It doesn't tell us if he is sane or naive, or if he is even telling the truth. If the person comes up scum then we have to pick try and determine what the chances are that said person had investigation immunity (rendered potentially more difficult by some players having custom roles) (with Voldemort dead it is unlikely that the scum have a living godfather, but we can't rule out one of their members simply having investigation imunity) and even then we still can't easily tell if he was lying or simply naive.

Is it worth testing his claims by putting some pressure on everywhere?

Putting pressure on everywhere tells us jack shit about Strike's claim. If everywhere was going to claim something other than wizard he should have done so already. He is either a wizard or anit-town and will therefore lie. Anything short of actually lynching him is not relevant to Strike's claim.

Everywhere stands out to me as a question mark...and it would provide the added bonus of helping lock up strikewolf's claim as auror.

Nope

I think the above line of reasoning makes sense if you want to test me as well. Since Strike cleared me with investigation...obviously it takes heat off of me if strike is cleared and his investigations are found to be accurate.

Proving the accuracy of Strike's result against you can only be achieved with certainty by the death of either him or you. Anything else is less than 100% certain. The only other thing that could happen to reach an acceptable level of certainty would be for him to come up with a guilty result which is then proven correct upon the lynch of that player.

[chapcrap]

3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.

Where did Tails reveal his night actions? I better go check this out. I'll look before I post this and if I find it, I'll reveal more information.

I watched strike... nada.

-Tails

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

[spiesr]

Fastposted by Chapcrap...Holy cow! So you think Iron got lucky and found Dazza by a sheer luck guess? Or do you think he's a third party recruiter that also had investigative powers and death eater killing powers? Quite a powerful role, no?

Assuming Iron Butterfly is lying there are several things that could have lead him to be able to determine that Dazza was scum with enough certainty to claim it. If he has some sort of night action, he could have seen something that tipped him off the Dazza being a busdriver, by that point the general consensus was that a busdriver would most likely have to be scum aligned. If he is a recruited he could be a variant where he can't recruit scum, but survives attempting to do so. In the case it just comes down to the simply matter of him trying and failing to recruit Dazza. Another possibility is that he has some weird role where he was told who the scum were. (By appearing to them to be a member of their group, but actually having his own agenda. certianly a possibility if you think he is the werewolf.) Anyhow, what is comes down to is that if he is lying he could be anything and we don't really know what he could know.
While this is still all kind of out there, that chances of Iron Butterfly being right about Dazza aren't as insurmountable as you make them out to be. Hell, even a lucky guess is possible. With the scum busdriver still alive at that point he could just have made an educated guess and been hoping to pass a mistake off a busdriver tampering, risky but possible.

[spiesr]

I watched strike... nada.

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

Interesting, any chance of letting us know what you were doing at Strike's house last night?

[Nebuchadnezer]

I watched strike... nada.

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

Interesting, any chance of letting us know what you were doing at Strike's house last night?

Okay, so TAILS is the Watcher and watches Strike.

Chap uses his Tracking ability to track Strike. Chap what was your result?
TAILS claims nobody visited Strike.

This would be twice now that TAILS claim didn't match up. Explain TAILS...
And again we're chasing our TAILS...round in circles...like the headline for today suggests.

[everywhere116]

3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.

Where did Tails reveal his night actions? I better go check this out. I'll look before I post this and if I find it, I'll reveal more information.

Pg 86. Note that Neb's information is wrong, since Tail retconned his information due to a mod snafu on the same day.

I watched strike... nada.

-Tails

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.[/quote]Which action did you use on Strike?

Chap uses his Tracking ability to track Strike. Chap what was your result?
TAILS claims nobody visited Strike.

Chap never said what he did with strike....

[everywhere116]

Note: Not voting for Tail. Quote snafu.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.

Where did Tails reveal his night actions? I better go check this out. I'll look before I post this and if I find it, I'll reveal more information.

I watched strike... nada.

-Tails

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

All I know is what I received in my result pm, which said that nobody visited Strike. I don't know what you're going after here, Chap. If you're questioning my loyalty here, you're barking up the wrong tree.

-Tails

[chapcrap]

3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.

Where did Tails reveal his night actions? I better go check this out. I'll look before I post this and if I find it, I'll reveal more information.

I watched strike... nada.

-Tails

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

All I know is what I received in my result pm, which said that nobody visited Strike. I don't know what you're going after here, Chap. If you're questioning my loyalty here, you're barking up the wrong tree.

-Tails

I'm not questioning your loyalty. I'm saying that you're fakeclaiming and you just got caught for the second time because I visited strike last night. End of story.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

3) Tails – Lily Potter; watcher. N1 Hippo, nobody. N2 Spartacus, nobody. N3 Chapcrap visited by PCM. N4 Iron visited by Hippo and PCM. N5 MC05025, nobody. N6 Strike, nobody.

Where did Tails reveal his night actions? I better go check this out. I'll look before I post this and if I find it, I'll reveal more information.

I watched strike... nada.

-Tails

Found it. Don't know how I missed this. How did you get nothing? I'll be honest, I always get watchers and trackers mixed up, but either way, this is a lie. Strike obviously investigated someone and I visited strike last night. So, you should have gotten a result. unvote vote Tails for getting caught in a lie. And this time you can't blame it on the mod.

All I know is what I received in my result pm, which said that nobody visited Strike. I don't know what you're going after here, Chap. If you're questioning my loyalty here, you're barking up the wrong tree.

-Tails

I'm not questioning your loyalty. I'm saying that you're fakeclaiming and you just got caught for the second time because I visited strike last night. End of story.

Right. So I contributed to the lynches of two scum mates and directly outed a third? And this includes the GF who would presumably be investigation proof? Good catch, chap.

-Tails

[TA1LGUNN3R]

So, chap. You were only on the pancake lynch, not Voldemort's or the busdriver. You habitually voted for pretty much everybody but other mafia, including Saf, spartacus (the easy lynch), and jonty (despite "not finding him scummy").

For me, the top 3 scum candidates are

safariguy5
mc05025
Nebuchadnezer

That wasn't necessarily in order. I don't think that town should just ignore the fact that Harry was killed and saf's claim role didn't do what it was supposed to. There are obviously mechanics that can effect this, but it can't be ignored, no matter what your gut is telling you.

FASTOSTED x2

Double posting because I wanted to make sure that lynch happened...

Anyway, some things I know:

• There is a mafia busdriver
• Iron Butterfly is scum
• I would bet that Neb, hippo, and mc are pretty close to scum

You have never even shown suspicion on any of the mafioso so far, but have been itching for IB and mc pretty much the entire game.

I am gonna go ahead and speculate some more that Bleed isn't scum. It's just hard to believe that his scum mates would allow him to be this inactive and continue to be so. Not only that, it seems like at least one of them would be trying to deflect the case on him or lead another case on someone else at least.

It would be nice if we would at least hear from the mod.

I don't know what's up with Bleed... I would say we could just lynch him, but if he's not even caring to respond, he's probably a townie anyway. I feel like if you're scum, you usually at least pay a little more attention than what he has shown.

It's funny that you tried to dissuade a Bleed lynch, and lo and behold he turns up as Voldemort. Honestly, the only thing that kept you under my radar was that pancake targeted you N3. Guess what? Nobody died that night. I thought, "nah, no way the mafia blocker would target his own." But maybe...

And your claim; you claim JOAT. You claim an investigation on IB night 1, an alleged kill attempt on the same which is redirected to Saf, and then have a tracker action not go through. Oh and guess what? You hint at a damning result from your investigation on IB... yet you don't specifically say anything until IB claims. Conveniently, you claim that you got "not a wizard" like three posts after his claim of centaur. And now you're trying to claim your tracker action, AFTER strike has already told us he visited everywhere last night, to lynch me, using a prior error to somehow link to this one. You have absolutely no credibility on this issue.

To summarize:

• Only contributed to 1/3 of scum lynches
• NEVER cast suspicion on the other two
• Nobody dies night he is blocked
• Has been very dogged in pursuit of IB (killing ability) and mc (double vote)
• Convenient claim
• Info manipulation
• Ad hominem lynch attempt on me
• Tried to deflect Bleed lynch

I think that says it all.

-Tails