by DoomYoshi on Sun Mar 13, 2011 2:35 pm
Oh ok, I haven't played a lot of mafia, just from the backstory it sounded like there was 3 factions. So, assuming there is 2 factions, my vote on Violet makes a bit less sense.
However, I have prepared below the mathematical rationale for why I voted Violet, although keep in mind that it is based on the voting cycle before Vi starting switching gears to Nark ( a fairly suspicious point). Anyone who can apply this to themselves can use the rationale provided below, whether or not you believe claims 1) and 2)
IF
1) I am not a mason or lover with Violet or PCM
2) I am not mafia with either of them.
3) I have no explicit knowledge. My mission is to minimize casualties, and gain information.
THEN
4)Case 1, Violet is scum, PCM is town, If we lynch PCM on day 1, then Violet still gets a kill on night 1 and we can lynch her day 2. Casualties: 2 town, 1 mafia. If we lynch Vi on day 1, then casualties are 1 mafia and then day 2 is unpredictable.
5)Case 2, VIolet is town, PCM is scum. If we lynch PCM we are ahead. If we kill Violet, we are behind.
6)Case 3, both are town. If we lynch PCM day 1, then it is really easy for the mafia to frame Violet. Then we lynch her day 2 and are down by 3. If we lynch Violet day 1, there is nobody who can be framed. That is because Violet brought the case on PCM and not vice versa. Casualties: 1 town
So, assuming there is a 3/11 chance of them being mafia, Case 3 is the most likely and is also the easiest place we can minimize casualties. Violet stuck out her neck to get the game moving, for which I respect her. Either way, Violet has to die.
The reason I will not vote for Victor is that I do not believe voting somebody for metagame reasons is actually a valid case. If he dies we can gleam information from the voting on him. In general it seems like the more cases present to the town at lynch day, the less chance that we act on any given one, the less chance we kill the right person.
āāāāāāāāā