[OFFICIAL] Lion King Mafia - Town Scarred as Mafia Wins!

[mandalorian2298]

I agree, what was meant to be a joke might end up badly.

Unvote

Interesting choice of words. How do you know that Skoffin isn't scum? If, on the other hand, you know no such thing then why are you mentioning the potential downside without mentioning the potential upside? FOS DDS

[Ragian]

He said "might". Surely, the modal verb leaves room for both outcomes. You seem to be making mountains out of molehills. Fos

[DirtyDishSoap]

I agree, what was meant to be a joke might end up badly.

Unvote

Interesting choice of words. How do you know that Skoffin isn't scum? If, on the other hand, you know no such thing then why are you mentioning the potential downside without mentioning the potential upside? FOS DDS

What evidence suggests that she is scum? I'm not going to leave a vote up that was intended as a joke. Lol

[Skittles!]

Wish I could vote two people ::thinking::

[mandalorian2298]

I agree, what was meant to be a joke might end up badly.

Unvote

Interesting choice of words. How do you know that Skoffin isn't scum? If, on the other hand, you know no such thing then why are you mentioning the potential downside without mentioning the potential upside? FOS DDS

What evidence suggests that she is scum? I'm not going to leave a vote up that was intended as a joke. Lol

My suspicious finger is not pointed at your unvote it is pointed at your choice of phrase.

@Ragian God is in the molehills.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Okay, then I guess I'll knock this out now rather then later.

I don't like voting on day 1 (see Balance Not Included), my personal experience is is that the con's outweigh the pro's. You may or may not get lucky in lynching scum, but usually it's a town lynch, followed up by a town killed. Down by two town on D2 hurts incredibly and I'll never be an advocate for a D1 lynch here, there, or any future games. Different playstyle. (Incoming massive flux of "Hurr you're scum!"),

TL;DR - I did say might, which you overlooked.

[Fircoal]

You people are talking too much nonsense for me.

Chu, where did that quote in your signature come from?

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=132165&start=600

Also hi. VOTE MANDY.

[TimWoodbury]

DDS i know you prefer no lynch day1 as chances are you hit town but if you no vote you have a 0% chance of lynching a skum however playing another game with you i know that's just your play style so cant hold it against you

[Samlen]

DDS isn't the only one who likes no-lynching on the first day. By day 2, town power roles will be able to help steer the town in a better direction, even if they don't come out and say what information they gained during the night. A lynch at this point is completely random and will most likely hit town, not scum.

[Minister Masket]

DDS isn't the only one who likes no-lynching on the first day. By day 2, town power roles will be able to help steer the town in a better direction, even if they don't come out and say what information they gained during the night. A lynch at this point is completely random and will most likely hit town, not scum.

If you consider the bigger picture then it really shouldn't matter if you're for or against a No Lynch on Day 1, because there's enough pros and cons for either point for there to never be an ideal choice. I don't think I've ever voted someone specifically for their stance on this issue.
Statistically the argument probably falls for Pro No D1 Lynch, but personally I quite like the info you get from near-lynch debates, so I'm kinda constantly on the fence about it.

[madmitch]

https://youtu.be/QvsQ9hYKq7c?list=RDmrOWDPkYyP0

[DirtyDishSoap]

DDS i know you prefer no lynch day1 as chances are you hit town but if you no vote you have a 0% chance of lynching a skum however playing another game with you i know that's just your play style so cant hold it against you

I don't want to make this anymore of an issue than it already has lest we repeat the same scenario in BNI, but I'm going to indulge it with one last post and then I'll just leave it be.

I really don't want to use this as a end all be all argument, but I'll just throw a percentage back at you to counter the argument. Take the 16 players we have now, and assume out of that 16 we have 3 scum and possibly 1 or 2 neuts. I think 2 might be a bit excessive so on the safer side I'll assume there's 4 total, with the neut being evil. That leaves 12 vs 4. Out of those 4, you're risking a 70% chance of mislynching and killing a town, God forbid if you end up killing a cop before he can even do his job before the game really starts. (I like to view D1 as a meet and greet). It's a 70% vs a 30%. I don't like those odds bud.

Course, there's way more variables than that, and unless someone is a complete herpaderp and outright says they're scum, we're basically rolling the dice and hoping to get lucky. I like to gamble, but not when the odds are horribly stacked against me.

[HotShot53]

While the odds are that a town is usually lynched day 1... that's not always the case, and the town can afford to lose someone a lot more than scum can. Besides that though, the most important part of trying for a day 1 lynch is information, see how people react to pressure and each other. That way at least the power roles aren't going into night 1 completely blind, and can try to make their actions target appropriate people. Otherwise, why have a day 1 at all, why not just start with a night phase?

[DirtyDishSoap]

If it were up to me, I'd make D1 last significantly shorter than the other days. To me, the purpose behind it is a meet and greet, and that's it. Other than that though, I can see how people want to see reactions for power roles to make their choices, I'm just against lynching. As I said, more variables to look at then just mere percentages, but it's my take on it.

[Djfireside]

I would agree, I normally hate D1 cause there is nothing to really be had

[Fircoal]

I can only read this as a phoenix wright skit and it's hilarious.

Phoenix Wright is great. IT's as great as Mandy is scum. As it is completely.

Hope you get back soon. I liked being the second most irrationaly stubborn player. It was a nice change of pace.

oh and btw you will always be first in my heart

dont be jelous chu my dear, in my heart you are a close second most irrational player

I hope you know that that was Masket and not me.

You people are talking too much nonsense for me.

Chu, where did that quote in your signature come from?

So you intentionally want more gibberish talk about quotes from signatures? First you're saying people are talking nonsense and then you want more nonsense? hmm..

Seems like a Day 1 joke to me. Or at least something posted just because. I doubt there's anything here.

You people are talking too much nonsense for me.

Chu, where did that quote in your signature come from?

So you intentionally want more gibberish talk about quotes from signatures? First you're saying people are talking nonsense and then you want more nonsense? hmm..

Agreed. An "I'm active and encourage constructive discussion (not really)" post is a good place to start Day 1 action.

unvote vote Skoffin

owo what is this?

Vote Skoffin for nonsense amazing brand made of nonsense. Because nonsense of your nonsense is nonsense.

Nonsense.

I like day 1, always so cheerful and no drama.

It's a joke vote but it's also the 3rd vote? That seems off to me. Why put your jokes on a bigger candiate?

i think Skoffin is scum, what with the skimreading already and whatnot, why does she always look scummy, anyway i always think Skoffin is scum therefore unvote vote Skoff

I can't tell if this is a joke vote or not but this is the 4th vote on Skoffin. Either way it feels a bit suspisious to me.

I agree, what was meant to be a joke might end up badly.

Unvote

Interesting choice of words. How do you know that Skoffin isn't scum? If, on the other hand, you know no such thing then why are you mentioning the potential downside without mentioning the potential upside? FOS DDS

What are you even trying to argue here? He had a weak joke vote that was starting to turn into a weak bandwagon and he got off. It's suspicious that he got on it but I understand why anyone would want to get off of it. I don't get why you're so married to the lynch idea already.

Okay, then I guess I'll knock this out now rather then later.

I don't like voting on day 1 (see Balance Not Included), my personal experience is is that the con's outweigh the pro's. You may or may not get lucky in lynching scum, but usually it's a town lynch, followed up by a town killed. Down by two town on D2 hurts incredibly and I'll never be an advocate for a D1 lynch here, there, or any future games. Different playstyle. (Incoming massive flux of "Hurr you're scum!"),

But then you miss out on information, and you're not using town's most important kill. There are times for no lynchs but Day 1 is almost never one of them. I feel like it handicaps the town much more than hurts them. Besides the math you're doing is not correct.

Someone is going to die on Night 1 regardless of whether someone gets lynched on Day 1. Those two facts aren't related. Thusly it's only a difference of one player, that player being the one that we lynch. While it may have a low chance of killing mafia, it has a much higher chance of doing so than nightkills will. The chances may be low but the day lynchs are the town's chance to find and kill mafia. I feel like not using them without a really strong reason is a huge mistake.

That said I know this is what you believe and thusly I don't think you're scum for it. I do think you're wrong but not scum.

DDS i know you prefer no lynch day1 as chances are you hit town but if you no vote you have a 0% chance of lynching a skum however playing another game with you i know that's just your play style so cant hold it against you

Good post Tim. :3

Take the 16 players we have now, and assume out of that 16 we have 3 scum and possibly 1 or 2 neuts.

It should most likely be 4 scum. Especially since Frenchie-chan is co-modding.

While the odds are that a town is usually lynched day 1... that's not always the case, and the town can afford to lose someone a lot more than scum can. Besides that though, the most important part of trying for a day 1 lynch is information, see how people react to pressure and each other. That way at least the power roles aren't going into night 1 completely blind, and can try to make their actions target appropriate people. Otherwise, why have a day 1 at all, why not just start with a night phase?

Huh, not only is this logical and makes sense, but it feels different from the HotShot that I've seen in other games. No not because he's making sense but because it felt like with other games he had to hide around more, this post feels somewhat open. File HotShot in my town list for now.



In summary I'm slightly suspicous of Mandy and Flores. Mandy seems to be interested in a Skoffin lynch without much ryhme or reason. He also happens to be Mandy. Flores jumped in for the 4th vote without a strong case to do so, nor a manner of jokingness that usually is joined with those type of votes. I don't suspect DDS as much because it feels like he's sticking out his neck to do what he feels is right. It does depend on what happens in BNI but I do feel like that it's more likely that he's trying his best and is wrong rather than he is trying to lead the town down a bad path. Skoffin and Hotshot appear town. The latter I explained before, while Skoffin seems unphased by the weak bandwagon on her. It's not much but I would have expected her to react more if she was a baddie. Anyway: Vote: Mandy

[mandalorian2298]

Dear Mods,

I am adressing you with due humility and deference due to your position and offer this suggestion for improving the player activity (assuming that it's improvement is desirable): regular vote counts. If mod(s) are giving off the impression that he(or they) is posting only when he absolutely has too, then players, especially the more casual ones are likely to model their behaviour after mods.

Lead from the front.

DDS i know you prefer no lynch day1 as chances are you hit town but if you no vote you have a 0% chance of lynching a skum however playing another game with you i know that's just your play style so cant hold it against you

I don't want to make this anymore of an issue than it already has lest we repeat the same scenario in BNI, but I'm going to indulge it with one last post and then I'll just leave it be.

I really don't want to use this as a end all be all argument, but I'll just throw a percentage back at you to counter the argument. Take the 16 players we have now, and assume out of that 16 we have 3 scum and possibly 1 or 2 neuts. I think 2 might be a bit excessive so on the safer side I'll assume there's 4 total, with the neut being evil. That leaves 12 vs 4. Out of those 4, you're risking a 70% chance of mislynching and killing a town, God forbid if you end up killing a cop before he can even do his job before the game really starts. (I like to view D1 as a meet and greet). It's a 70% vs a 30%. I don't like those odds bud.

Course, there's way more variables than that, and unless someone is a complete herpaderp and outright says they're scum, we're basically rolling the dice and hoping to get lucky. I like to gamble, but not when the odds are horribly stacked against me.

*deep breath*

Mafia is a game which pits uninformed MAJORITY (Town) against the informed MINORITY (Scum).

As shockingly unfair as it may seem (and probably due to CC dice being rigged) if you randomly select someone out of a group consisting of a MAJORITY and a MINORITY, you have better chance of hitting a member of a MAJORITY. MAJORITY/MINORITY to be precise. Sadly, this is true, not only for lynch, but also for other actions. For example, that Cop that you want to wait for to provide you with the 'sure thing' on Day 2 (unles he is, you know, Insane, Paranoid or Naive) is more likely to investigate a member of...say it with me...MAJORITY!

Now, I suppose we could wait for the Town to become a minority so that you can feel like you are getting good odds, but, sadly, if that happens the game ends with a Scum win.

Now, since you are obviously a probability enthusiast, I invite you to ponder the following puzzle:

This game started with 16 players alive and that number is going to be steadily dropping. Knowing nothing else, which of these scenarios give the Town the highest probability of to win:

a) 8 players left alive, 4 lynched, 4 NKed by Mafia;
b) 8 players left alive, 3 lynched, 5 NKed by Mafia;
c) 8 players left alive, 0 lynched, 8 NKed by Mafia?

[Samlen]

The problem isn't just that we're more likely to hit town because we're the majority, but the problem is we're more likely to hit town because town doesn't have any information yet. We can gather information by lynching, talking, and town power roles. That second one is what day 1 is mostly about. Given that the power roles have no information yet to help steer the town, lynching today is a complete random shot. Also, since a lynch today would essentially be completely random, the information we would gain from said lynch would be next to useless. We could steer towards a lynch by talking and hoping someone slips, but the safest thing is to talk simply to give the town pr's an idea of what to do to gain the most knowledge during the night.

Long story short, percentages may always technically say that we are more likely to hit town than non-town, but every day/night cycle we go through gives us more information that raises the odds that we lynch a mafia member. Day 1 might be 8town vs 4scum (75% vs 25%) and day 2 could be 7town vs 4scum (64% vs 36%) but with the information we get in the night it's closer to a (55% vs 45%) or whatever.

[nagerous]

I can sub if needed

Cheers buddy I will give master bush a couple more days to respond to my prod otherwise I will replace him with you.

Thanks

[DirtyDishSoap]

Dear Mods,

I am adressing you with due humility and deference due to your position and offer this suggestion for improving the player activity (assuming that it's improvement is desirable): regular vote counts. If mod(s) are giving off the impression that he(or they) is posting only when he absolutely has too, then players, especially the more casual ones are likely to model their behaviour after mods.

Lead from the front.

DDS i know you prefer no lynch day1 as chances are you hit town but if you no vote you have a 0% chance of lynching a skum however playing another game with you i know that's just your play style so cant hold it against you

I don't want to make this anymore of an issue than it already has lest we repeat the same scenario in BNI, but I'm going to indulge it with one last post and then I'll just leave it be.

I really don't want to use this as a end all be all argument, but I'll just throw a percentage back at you to counter the argument. Take the 16 players we have now, and assume out of that 16 we have 3 scum and possibly 1 or 2 neuts. I think 2 might be a bit excessive so on the safer side I'll assume there's 4 total, with the neut being evil. That leaves 12 vs 4. Out of those 4, you're risking a 70% chance of mislynching and killing a town, God forbid if you end up killing a cop before he can even do his job before the game really starts. (I like to view D1 as a meet and greet). It's a 70% vs a 30%. I don't like those odds bud.

Course, there's way more variables than that, and unless someone is a complete herpaderp and outright says they're scum, we're basically rolling the dice and hoping to get lucky. I like to gamble, but not when the odds are horribly stacked against against me.

Long winded drivel, once again, ignoring a crucial part of what I said.

Think the most shocking thing you've done in less than two posts is manage to outright selectively read what you want in order to validate your argument.

To help you and anyone who seems to be utterly confused about what I'm saying, I highlighted it in bold red.

What I should have included is that unless there's actually strong evidence to suggest that a person D1 is scum, you're gambling on terrible odds based on a horrible hunch. This really only applies to D1, literally any other day well reveal infinitely more information.
If you would like a picture book as well, I'll be sure to draw one up for you.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Hotshot brings up a good point though. Town can take the hit. But to me, it's not for very long, and I still believe that losing 2 outright on by D2 is just not worth it. 1 to me is fine, again, just want the roles to be able to actually be worth of some value instead of just being killed because x thought your boobish post makes you insta scum.

Anyways, this argument isn't going to get us anywhere, I'll continue fighting against it, whether you agree with it or not, I don't really care, it's already a horse that was beaten half dead in another game. I'm not going to argue it any further than I already have.

[Pikanchion]

I can sub if needed

Skoffin says I have to put myself forwards "just in case" because whipped etc, so basically I have no choice and am putting myself in as a reserve for this game (and extra reserve reserve, behind the other reserve person) any way stuff yes, blame skoffin, I'm totally not doing this for her >.>

So whipped totally not changing dialogue on her bequest.

[mandalorian2298]

blablablaDay should end in No lynch

unvote vote DDS
Either he is trying to win the Day 1 for the Scum or he is the Townie that we can most afford to lose. If we miss we might as well miss small.

Now let me put on these sunglasses because his logic has blinded me.

[Ragian]

Back from Greece. Should be more productive henceforth!

DDS isn't the only one who likes no-lynching on the first day. By day 2, town power roles will be able to help steer the town in a better direction, even if they don't come out and say what information they gained during the night. A lynch at this point is completely random and will most likely hit town, not scum.

If you consider the bigger picture then it really shouldn't matter if you're for or against a No Lynch on Day 1, because there's enough pros and cons for either point for there to never be an ideal choice. I don't think I've ever voted someone specifically for their stance on this issue.
Statistically the argument probably falls for Pro No D1 Lynch, but personally I quite like the info you get from near-lynch debates, so I'm kinda constantly on the fence about it.

QFT

DDS has explained his position, which he also did in BNI. I disagree with the playstyle, but one must acknowledge other playstyles. I don't like how mandy is conducting himself at this point. I'll agree to having skimmed a lot of the lynch-no lynch argument because I've read it one million times and nothing new ever emerges (which is why I have my viewpoint).
1 Mandy tries to make something out of nothing in a DDS quote.
2 Mandy votes DDS for having a different style of play.

@Mandy, what gives? Why are you on DDS so much? In my view, your behaviour is the scummiest at this point (of the people who have actually contributed).

[Metsfanmax]

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