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[Official] Team CC Mafia [Finished]

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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:20 pm

Rodion wrote:Mets, I only attempted to deal with 3 people: PCM (that made a "no lynch" counteroffer), Squirrel and you. You can't even conclude that 3 townies turned the original offer down, because none of you 3 is absolutely cleared.


In your position I would try to divide us this way too, but I'm not going to let it happen. Based on the evidence I have available to me at this time, the list I provided above is my best guess for who's town. What else can I do? Lynching safari is the most logical choice given what we know. Sure, it's possible he's telling the truth and we will lose as a result of lynching him, but I find it unlikely and in this game sometimes you have to play the odds. As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do.

Fastposted; shield -- will you or will you not hammer safari?
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Commander9 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:23 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
Rodion wrote:Mets, I only attempted to deal with 3 people: PCM (that made a "no lynch" counteroffer), Squirrel and you. You can't even conclude that 3 townies turned the original offer down, because none of you 3 is absolutely cleared.


In your position I would try to divide us this way too, but I'm not going to let it happen. Based on the evidence I have available to me at this time, the list I provided above is my best guess for who's town. What else can I do? Lynching safari is the most logical choice given what we know. Sure, it's possible he's telling the truth and we will lose as a result of lynching him, but I find it unlikely and in this game sometimes you have to play the odds. As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do.

Fastposted; shield -- will you or will you not hammer safari?


I can PM Sax, but I'm 99% sure that we don't have anything left for this day. Shield, I hope you won't mind, but we do need someone to hammer Safari and I do trust most of the others more than you. Since there has already been a vig in this game, I find it unlikely that there's a 2nd and I don't want to take that risk. If you will hammer, it's quite likely you will survive - if you don't, we'll just have to assume you are scum.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Rodion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:25 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do


How so? Squirrel claimed he can still kill 1 person and you trust Squirrel.

That means that even if Commander gets lynched it's not ENDGAME. That concluded, PCM, reconsider the offer of killing Commander and being recruited to win.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby shieldgenerator7 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:29 pm

Is saf at L-1?
Anyway, I see people want me to hammer. So to prove that I'm the town vig,
Unvote Vote Saf
I'm betting he's the recruiter and not town bomb.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Commander9 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:32 pm

May we get the official vote count? I don't believe we are done with the day, but I would like to have an order here. And yes, I do also think that Safari is the recruiter and Rodion is just soaking up pressure.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:37 pm

Rodion wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do


How so? Squirrel claimed he can still kill 1 person and you trust Squirrel.


I trust C9 also, based on the thread so far. I'm just saying, in his case I also don't really have an option -- even if I didn't trust him, I'd be forced to work with him.

shield -- no no, we haven't actually prepared the lynch yet. We're just asking you to confirm that you would be the last person to vote safari, so please unvote for now.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby shieldgenerator7 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:41 pm

Ok, I wasn't sure how many votes he had. unvote
So how many more poeple do we need to get him to L-1?
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:46 pm

That number currently stands at zero, and we need four votes to get him to L-1. That means out of myself, C9, jeraado, pcm and squirrel, four of us need to vote safari, and then you'll be the fifth. I'm willing to get this done soon, but I'm not going to do it before absolutely have to (when is the deadline?).
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Rodion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:47 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
Rodion wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do


How so? Squirrel claimed he can still kill 1 person and you trust Squirrel.


I trust C9 also, based on the thread so far. I'm just saying, in his case I also don't really have an option -- even if I didn't trust him, I'd be forced to work with him.

shield -- no no, we haven't actually prepared the lynch yet. We're just asking you to confirm that you would be the last person to vote safari, so please unvote for now.


There can't be 6 townies. If shield "confirms" (according to Commander's logic) himself as town, which one of your top 5 townies "becomes" cult? The busdriver? The roleblocker? The 1-shot NK? One of the 2 players involved in the DK? :-k

PCM, waiting on you. As I said, Squirrel's NK claim (and now Shield's NK claim - both can't be lying, amirite?) means there is no endgame if we lynch a DKing role right now. Drop a word here when you can and if I'm online we can discuss.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:51 pm

Rodion wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:
Rodion wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:As for C9/jeraado: if we don't have the DK on our side, we're done anyway. I have to assume that we do


How so? Squirrel claimed he can still kill 1 person and you trust Squirrel.


I trust C9 also, based on the thread so far. I'm just saying, in his case I also don't really have an option -- even if I didn't trust him, I'd be forced to work with him.

shield -- no no, we haven't actually prepared the lynch yet. We're just asking you to confirm that you would be the last person to vote safari, so please unvote for now.


There can't be 6 townies. If shield "confirms" (according to Commander's logic) himself as town, which one of your top 5 townies "becomes" cult? The busdriver? The roleblocker? The 1-shot NK? One of the 2 players involved in the DK? :-k


As I said, the only thing we can do now is speculate, which is bad because finger-pointing at each other is what cult would want us to do. I don't believe that shield is town. I'm making that very clear right now. If he wants to help prove to me that he is by hammering safari, I welcome it, but obviously promises will not be made. We cannot make further decisions until we have more information.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Rodion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:55 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:I don't believe that shield is town. I'm making that very clear right now. If he wants to help prove to me that he is by hammering safari, I welcome it, but obviously promises will not be made.


Thank you. That's exactly why I said Commander's offer to clear Shield if he hammers Safari is bull and Shield should not take it whether he's town, mafia or cult.

Obviously, I have really low credibility due to my cult claim, but it doesn't take much thinking to realize Commander's offer is bull, as you just helped show.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 2:58 pm

Rodion wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:I don't believe that shield is town. I'm making that very clear right now. If he wants to help prove to me that he is by hammering safari, I welcome it, but obviously promises will not be made.


Thank you. That's exactly why I said Commander's offer to clear Shield if he hammers Safari is bull and Shield should not take it whether he's town, mafia or cult.


If he is town, he would want to help eliminate a cult member even if we don't accept him as town yet. What's he going to do, let cult win because of our very reasonable suspicion of his vig claim? If he is cult, then our unwillingness to clear him seems perfectly reasonable and his offer to hammer safari is either a lie or a plan to gain credibility in the eyes of the town. But it doesn't matter, if we lynch safari the town still advances.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Rodion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:06 pm

Actually, I got to do some thorough thinking here, but Squirrel/Shield's alleged NK makes me think it is actually possible for 6 (SIX) culties to win the game, since we could recruit N5 without it being endgame and then no lynching D6 to recruit one more N6.

It's pretty complex because I don't know all roles in the game (and some people are flat out lying), but I'll try to think this through and report to everyone. We could have many winners if I can work the details.

Basically, the premise is that a townie with killing abilities can prevent the endgame even if cult numbers equal town's (and 2 town killing abilities would mean cult could even outnumber the town and still prevent the endgame? Not sure, I must think more. I invite anyone - ANYONE - to cooperate with the mechanics step-by-step on this).

Fastposted my Mets - if he's town, he'd rather have another townie hammer the possible bomb and then perhaps live to be recruited tonight and win with the cult (and option that ONLY the hammerer would lose - it's not fair to force Shield into losing this option, is it?).
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:12 pm

Rodion wrote:Fastposted my Mets - if he's town, he'd rather have another townie hammer the possible bomb and then perhaps live to be recruited tonight and win with the cult (and option that ONLY the hammerer would lose - it's not fair to force Shield into losing this option, is it?).


Everyone here is playing as town members. We can't possibly play as cult members when we have no idea who will get recruited (if a recruitment even does happen, a scenario that I will do everything I can to prevent). The most likely scenario here is that shield doesn't die because safari is not a bomb. In the event that he really is a cult bomb, well, town's still going to win and shield will win with us if he's on our side.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Rodion on Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:29 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
Rodion wrote:Fastposted my Mets - if he's town, he'd rather have another townie hammer the possible bomb and then perhaps live to be recruited tonight and win with the cult (and option that ONLY the hammerer would lose - it's not fair to force Shield into losing this option, is it?).


Everyone here is playing as town members. We can't possibly play as cult members when we have no idea who will get recruited (if a recruitment even does happen, a scenario that I will do everything I can to prevent). The most likely scenario here is that shield doesn't die because safari is not a bomb. In the event that he really is a cult bomb, well, town's still going to win and shield will win with us if he's on our side.


Your idea of the town winning depends on so many "if"s that it is not even funny. Oh, wait, I'm cult, so IT IS funny. :lol:

Anyway, I'm going to run a small project on the idea of more than 5 of us winning (my offer to you still stands, though, PCM). It's ambitious, I admit, but it could work.

5-4 right now.
D5 no lynch.
N6 cult recruits (no other powers are used). 4-5. No endgame because town still has DK/NKs on their side. (5 of us win)
D6 one cult (non recruiter) is DKed. 4-4. No lynch. 4-4.
N6 cult recruits. 3-5. Squirrel/Shield kills one cultie. 3-4. No endgame because town still has DKs on their side. (6 of us win)
D7 - starts 3-4, DK one cultie, 3-3. Lynch one cultie, 3-2.
N7 - cult recruits. 2-3. No endgame because town still has DKs on their side. (7 of us win)
D8 - DK one cultie. 2-2. Lynch another cultie. 2-1.
N8 - cult recruits, 1-2. No endgame because town still has DKs on their side. (8 of us win)
D9 - DK one cultie, 1-1. No lynch.
N9 - cult recruits, 0-2. ENDGAME. CULT WINS (all 9 players that are alive as I speak win + Naxus and Gilligan).

Do you think we could pull this off? Answer honestly, please.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:42 pm

Rodion wrote:Your idea of the town winning depends on so many "if"s that it is not even funny. Oh, wait, I'm cult, so IT IS funny. :lol:


It most certainly does not. Town will win if safari is not town, I'm almost sure of it.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 3:50 pm

So we have a one shot JOAT style vig and also a vig per shield's claim? Sorry if I don't buy that shield, I doubt AoG has been shooting people, but you have no way of proving you're vig now and you'll prove nothing when I turn up town.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Mr. Squirrel on Sat Jun 18, 2011 4:26 pm

I can't even think of a reason why it would benefit shield to lie about his claim. The only option I can think of is that he doesnt want to have to hammer, so he is claiming anything that might make him 'useful'. Could shield be the recruiter? Maybe AoG was purposefully deadbeating yet still sending in the Night actions? It's a longshot, but not entirely out of the picture. Or maybe there is an automatic recruitment mechanic.... I will have to think on this some more. :-s
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Mr. Squirrel on Sat Jun 18, 2011 4:26 pm

unvote

Until we sort everything out
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby pancakemix on Sat Jun 18, 2011 4:35 pm

Rodion wrote:PCM, waiting on you. As I said, Squirrel's NK claim (and now Shield's NK claim - both can't be lying, amirite?) means there is no endgame if we lynch a DKing role right now. Drop a word here when you can and if I'm online we can discuss.


Actually, yes they could both be lying. I'd rather take the safe bet, if you don't mind. Otherwise I'm going to advocate lynching you and believe me it makes a lot more sense than anything else. O:)
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby shieldgenerator7 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 4:51 pm

Rodion, what makes you think we'd take you up on your recruitment offer?

AoG was deadbeating. Saxlasd PM'd me his previous night actions and I got nothing. So yeah, AoG hasn't used his vig power yet. So who should I vig tonight, do you think? If saf comes up as town bomb, Rodion would probably be a good choice just because he's trying to make all these deals. I honestly think Rodion is not the recruiter because he is a strong player and I think he's trying to distract us from the real recruiter.

NOw, jimfinn, jeraado, other inactives... where are you? and what say you?
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 6:12 pm

shieldgenerator7 wrote:I honestly think Rodion is not the recruiter because he is a strong player and I think he's trying to distract us from the real recruiter.


I still favor safari for the recruiter. I think your NK tonight should be Rodion simply because he seems to be the only player on their team with his act together -- if they lose their figurehead player, so to speak, there'll be more chaos for them, which is good.

safari's claim is incredible and was a perfect choice for making us tentative, but our best choice is still to lynch him. Unless anyone has a strong objection to it, that's definitely the plan once we approach the deadline. Our next step is to figure out how to apportion the other night actions.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:54 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
shieldgenerator7 wrote:I honestly think Rodion is not the recruiter because he is a strong player and I think he's trying to distract us from the real recruiter.


I still favor safari for the recruiter. I think your NK tonight should be Rodion simply because he seems to be the only player on their team with his act together -- if they lose their figurehead player, so to speak, there'll be more chaos for them, which is good.

safari's claim is incredible and was a perfect choice for making us tentative, but our best choice is still to lynch him. Unless anyone has a strong objection to it, that's definitely the plan once we approach the deadline. Our next step is to figure out how to apportion the other night actions.

Unfortunately, with all this claiming, you've given cult all the information they need. All they have to do is recruit either Mr. Squirrel or shield, and then losing the recruiter isn't that big a deal because they can just vig the rest of town.

So really, we're at an even worse position now because all the roles are out in the open.
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Commander9 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:05 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:I still favor safari for the recruiter. I think your NK tonight should be Rodion simply because he seems to be the only player on their team with his act together -- if they lose their figurehead player, so to speak, there'll be more chaos for them, which is good.

safari's claim is incredible and was a perfect choice for making us tentative, but our best choice is still to lynch him. Unless anyone has a strong objection to it, that's definitely the plan once we approach the deadline. Our next step is to figure out how to apportion the other night actions.


Aye to both. We lynch Safari and NK Rodion/Jimfinn (I'd personally prefer Mr. Finn here). If Shield and Mr. S are both telling the true, then I think we should take both of them. It would be nice if you two would right now state who chooses who if you both survive. I also say we can get this started.

Unvote. Vote Safari.

safariguy5 wrote:Unfortunately, with all this claiming, you've given cult all the information they need. All they have to do is recruit either Mr. Squirrel or shield, and then losing the recruiter isn't that big a deal because they can just vig the rest of town.

So really, we're at an even worse position now because all the roles are out in the open.


Not if you are the recruiter and that possibility dies with you?
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Re: [Official] Team CC Mafia (Day 5) Silent Night, but not H

Postby Metsfanmax on Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:32 pm

safariguy5 wrote:Unfortunately, with all this claiming, you've given cult all the information they need. All they have to do is recruit either Mr. Squirrel or shield, and then losing the recruiter isn't that big a deal because they can just vig the rest of town.

So really, we're at an even worse position now because all the roles are out in the open.


Incorrect. C9 pointed out the obvious flaw. Also, even if we kill the recruiter at night but the recruiter gets shield over tonight, we can just use our DK on the vig (remember, shield's kill is at night so he'll never get the chance to use it again) and have total dominance.

I'll note also that I didn't ask Mr. S to reveal his remaining kill, but we're definitely much better off knowing that it's there and it makes the cult's choices a lot harder. Previously, all they had to do was take our day killer to completely secure victory. Now we have another ace in the hole, so to speak, that precludes you from securing victory that way. The only method you've got going for you at this point is to beg us poor townies to make a deal with you :)
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