[Official] Team CC Mafia [Finished]

[Metsfanmax]

I'm not negotiating with him, I'm pointing out all the holes in his plan so that it's clear that it's not worth it for any town member to cooperate with cult. Besides, we still have no confirmation that he's actually cult. He's obviously not pro-town, but still could possibly be a third party jester or simply a townie looking to be recruited for his service to the cult.

Fastposted by safari: I don't understand, why can't we lynch and roleblock+busdrive?

Depending on cult win conditions, sometimes cult wins if they equal the number of town remaining and sometimes cult wins if they outnumber the town. I'm not sure which Sax uses, but if we mislynch and hit town, then cult might win before we get a chance to go to night phase.

Could be, and a rules clarification from the mod would be welcome here -- but the chances do not look good for us if we don't lynch a cult today. My plan rests on getting a lynch and a possible roleblock/busdrive tonight. If we reduce that to only the roleblock/busdrive, I don't like our chances so much anymore.

[Mr. Squirrel]

I'm not negotiating with him, I'm pointing out all the holes in his plan so that it's clear that it's not worth it for any town member to cooperate with cult. Besides, we still have no confirmation that he's actually cult. He's obviously not pro-town, but still could possibly be a third party jester or simply a townie looking to be recruited for his service to the cult.

Fastposted by safari: I don't understand, why can't we lynch and roleblock+busdrive?

Yes, I understand now what you were saying, and I agree. We need a lynch today. We can't be sure if our roleblocker/busdriver has been recruited or not so we can't solely rely on them. I'm actually thinking that PCM might have been recruited since he was pushing for the no lynch.

Town still have a good chance here. In fact, the fact that cult are willing to deal suggests they aren't totally convinced that they'll win. The prosecutor of a case doesn't put a deal in front of the defendant just before the jury comes back if they're certain of victory.

Well, right now it's only rodion doing the negotiating. We can't be sure if he is the recruiter or not, or even if he is doing this with the recruiter's consent. My guess is that he isn't. The recruiter has been doing a good job of staying out of the spotlight the whole game. He has been smart about his recruitments and his actions and that is why we haven't found him yet. With how disastrously stupid rodion has been acting, my guess is that he is not the recruiter.

This leaves:
Jimfinn
Safariguy
AoG

Mets is cleared because he roleblocked me. I am cleared because I have been roleblocked on a night when there was a recruitment. Commander and jeraado clear each other. Pancakemix has been switching people, which there has been evidence of in the night scenes, so he is clear. And rodion is cleared because... well... he's been really stupid. I don't think he can be the recruiter, but technically he isn't cleared yet so I guess he belongs on the list.

Jimfinn
Safariguy
AoG
Rodion

Here's my impressions on the four:
Jimfinn: He's a newer player and hasn't been the most talkative this game. He claims he is a vet from mafiascum though. He has been posting just enough to avoid suspicion but not enough to trip up on himself. Was on the wagon of only one other cult member (naxus) but that one didn't end in a lynch anyway, he was daykilled. Today he seems to be going along with whatever rodion has been saying though with his two votes with no explanation. It's possible he could be the recruiter and gotten this far in the game out of sheer luck. Has yet to claim.

Safariguy: Claimed bomb... WIFOM scenario there if I have ever seen one. It's the perfect claim: obscure enough that he wouldn't be counterclaimed, unable to be tested, and makes people wary to vote for him. If we do decide to lynch him, then the town had better be pretty damn lucky because if we are wrong, we could lose completely. He has been very talkative, but is also very experienced so he would know what he is doing. Was on gilligan's wagon but doesn't necessarily clear him.

AoG: hasn't posted in here almost two months... should've been replaced long ago. Most likely not the recruiter

Rodion: Nearly confirmed as cult, but doubtful recruiter. He has been very talkative and he is still relatively new. With the amount of stuff that he has done today, I doubt he could be the recruiter. Has been on gilligan's lynch and advocated naxus' kill (to an extent). So far he hasn't claimed. With his sudden change in attitude today and lack of a claim, I would guess he was the recruited player last night.

Personally, I'm leaning toward Safariguy as the recruiter with jimfinn as a second choice.

Again, this whole post is just to find the recruiter. Any of my 'cleared' players could still be cult, but they can't be the recruiter.

[TheSaxlad]

The Cult will only win when they have enough to force a majority. so a 4-4 day will not result in an endgame as a well placed daykill swings it back in towns favour. also the cult will not have enough votes to speedlynch even if they wanted to.

[Metsfanmax]

Personally, I'm leaning toward Safariguy as the recruiter with jimfinn as a second choice.

If safari is indeed the recruiter it would make more sense out of the fact that Rodion's coded message was directed to him, but other than that we're mostly making choices based on what we know of them as mafia players and not their statements in the game. I think we can do better, though it's still tricky.

Fastposted by TSL: thanks for the clarification about the endgame scenario. Also, I wonder what you're referring to about the speedlynch? Does that mean it's not actually 5-4 now?

[Rodion]

Fastposted by TSL: thanks for the clarification about the endgame scenario. Also, I wonder what you're referring to about the speedlynch? Does that mean it's not actually 5-4 now?

I don't think the mod can tell you exactly what's going on. Consider that hypothetical.

[TheSaxlad]

It was very hypothetical.

[Metsfanmax]

OK, thought so, thank you.

[pancakemix]

The Cult will only win when they have enough to force a majority. so a 4-4 day will not result in an endgame as a well placed daykill swings it back in towns favour. also the cult will not have enough votes to speedlynch even if they wanted to.

OK, but in a hypothetical situation where there is no DK, does cult endgame in a 4-4 night scenario?

[TheSaxlad]

Yes.

[pancakemix]

Then I'm not voting Commander.

[Commander9]

The hell... I come back and there are 7 new pages with tons of information. Great.

[Rodion]

The hell... I come back and there are 7 new pages with tons of information. Great.

PCM, what was your busdrive last night?

[shieldgenerator7]

Hey, TSL, can I replace AoG?

[pancakemix]

PCM, what was your busdrive last night?

Not until I hear all the claims.

[TheSaxlad]

Hey, TSL, can I replace AoG?

I have already put this in motion as It is an official game I am going through my list of replacements. at the moment I am waiting for an answer from freezie. if I do not get one in 2 days then I will move on.

AoG will be replaced BEFORE the night phase however, so it will be a rolling deadline till I can get a replacement.

[safariguy5]

I'm not negotiating with him, I'm pointing out all the holes in his plan so that it's clear that it's not worth it for any town member to cooperate with cult. Besides, we still have no confirmation that he's actually cult. He's obviously not pro-town, but still could possibly be a third party jester or simply a townie looking to be recruited for his service to the cult.

Fastposted by safari: I don't understand, why can't we lynch and roleblock+busdrive?

Yes, I understand now what you were saying, and I agree. We need a lynch today. We can't be sure if our roleblocker/busdriver has been recruited or not so we can't solely rely on them. I'm actually thinking that PCM might have been recruited since he was pushing for the no lynch.

Town still have a good chance here. In fact, the fact that cult are willing to deal suggests they aren't totally convinced that they'll win. The prosecutor of a case doesn't put a deal in front of the defendant just before the jury comes back if they're certain of victory.

Well, right now it's only rodion doing the negotiating. We can't be sure if he is the recruiter or not, or even if he is doing this with the recruiter's consent. My guess is that he isn't. The recruiter has been doing a good job of staying out of the spotlight the whole game. He has been smart about his recruitments and his actions and that is why we haven't found him yet. With how disastrously stupid rodion has been acting, my guess is that he is not the recruiter.

This leaves:
Jimfinn
Safariguy
AoG

Mets is cleared because he roleblocked me. I am cleared because I have been roleblocked on a night when there was a recruitment. Commander and jeraado clear each other. Pancakemix has been switching people, which there has been evidence of in the night scenes, so he is clear. And rodion is cleared because... well... he's been really stupid. I don't think he can be the recruiter, but technically he isn't cleared yet so I guess he belongs on the list.

Jimfinn
Safariguy
AoG
Rodion

Here's my impressions on the four:
Jimfinn: He's a newer player and hasn't been the most talkative this game. He claims he is a vet from mafiascum though. He has been posting just enough to avoid suspicion but not enough to trip up on himself. Was on the wagon of only one other cult member (naxus) but that one didn't end in a lynch anyway, he was daykilled. Today he seems to be going along with whatever rodion has been saying though with his two votes with no explanation. It's possible he could be the recruiter and gotten this far in the game out of sheer luck. Has yet to claim.

Safariguy: Claimed bomb... WIFOM scenario there if I have ever seen one. It's the perfect claim: obscure enough that he wouldn't be counterclaimed, unable to be tested, and makes people wary to vote for him. If we do decide to lynch him, then the town had better be pretty damn lucky because if we are wrong, we could lose completely. He has been very talkative, but is also very experienced so he would know what he is doing. Was on gilligan's wagon but doesn't necessarily clear him.

AoG: hasn't posted in here almost two months... should've been replaced long ago. Most likely not the recruiter

Rodion: Nearly confirmed as cult, but doubtful recruiter. He has been very talkative and he is still relatively new. With the amount of stuff that he has done today, I doubt he could be the recruiter. Has been on gilligan's lynch and advocated naxus' kill (to an extent). So far he hasn't claimed. With his sudden change in attitude today and lack of a claim, I would guess he was the recruited player last night.

Personally, I'm leaning toward Safariguy as the recruiter with jimfinn as a second choice.

Again, this whole post is just to find the recruiter. Any of my 'cleared' players could still be cult, but they can't be the recruiter.

Yes, I know the bomb claim is convenient, but if I may meta for a bit, there seems to be a lot of skepticism of town bomb claims recently (South Park for example) and I swear that I've seen them before and used them in my modded games. Yes, you could test me if you really want to, but I assure you that I'm not cult and I'm simply claiming my role. I see Rodion as deliberately trying to frame me as a cultie.

If anything, I've been consistently warning about cult from Day 1, and that hasn't changed. I suggested a possible no lynch today because if we mislynch a townie, then that's game right there. Frankly, I don't see the recruiter straight up coming out and telling us that he's the recruiter, and there's too many suspects to just guess one and hope we get lucky.

[Metsfanmax]

We can be pretty sure that we can get a cult member with our lynch today even if it's not the recruiter, which increases our odds. It is better than leaving all cult members alive for sure.

I'm not convinced there's not something more to the Rodion thing. If he was trying to get caught as cult there were much simpler ways to do it. I've already said it could simply have been a planted message to raise confusion but that doesn't mean I think it's likely.

[Mr. Squirrel]

I suggested a possible no lynch today because if we mislynch a townie, then that's game right there. Frankly, I don't see the recruiter straight up coming out and telling us that he's the recruiter, and there's too many suspects to just guess one and hope we get lucky.

And what if mets and PCM are already recruited? Or even just one of them? If that's the case, then you are leading us into assured defeat.

Let's look at the statistics anyway. As i pointed out in my long post before, we can narrow the likely recruiters to maybe 3 different people. That gives us a 33% chance of getting it right. Perhaps higher if we can get it to two players.

Let's say we go with a no lynch though. Even in an ideal scenario where neither mets nor PCM are cult, mets only has a 1/8 (12.5%) chance of getting a block while PCM has an even lower probability (because he would have to target both the recruited person and a cult member) of about 6%. That means we have a 18.5% chance of surviving if we go to night or a 33% chance of survivng if we lynch today.

Yes, I know the bomb claim is convenient, but if I may meta for a bit, there seems to be a lot of skepticism of town bomb claims recently (South Park for example) and I swear that I've seen them before and used them in my modded games. Yes, you could test me if you really want to, but I assure you that I'm not cult and I'm simply claiming my role. I see Rodion as deliberately trying to frame me as a cultie.

Just because there has been bombs in other games doesn't mean there would be one in this game. Regardless of other mafia games, it is a very uncommon role and far too convenient of a claim.

If anything, I've been consistently warning about cult from Day 1, and that hasn't changed.

Yes, you have been warning about cult since day 1. And that was before we ever knew there was a cult! You're only digging yourself a bigger hole here, saf.

I'm gonna go ahead and vote safariguy now. Something tells me he won't be speedlynched.

[Rodion]

Adding percentages is a bit more complicated than that (12.5% + 6% is not 18.5%).

[safariguy5]

I suggested a possible no lynch today because if we mislynch a townie, then that's game right there. Frankly, I don't see the recruiter straight up coming out and telling us that he's the recruiter, and there's too many suspects to just guess one and hope we get lucky.

And what if mets and PCM are already recruited? Or even just one of them? If that's the case, then you are leading us into assured defeat.

Let's look at the statistics anyway. As i pointed out in my long post before, we can narrow the likely recruiters to maybe 3 different people. That gives us a 33% chance of getting it right. Perhaps higher if we can get it to two players.

Let's say we go with a no lynch though. Even in an ideal scenario where neither mets nor PCM are cult, mets only has a 1/8 (12.5%) chance of getting a block while PCM has an even lower probability (because he would have to target both the recruited person and a cult member) of about 6%. That means we have a 18.5% chance of surviving if we go to night or a 33% chance of survivng if we lynch today.

Yes, I know the bomb claim is convenient, but if I may meta for a bit, there seems to be a lot of skepticism of town bomb claims recently (South Park for example) and I swear that I've seen them before and used them in my modded games. Yes, you could test me if you really want to, but I assure you that I'm not cult and I'm simply claiming my role. I see Rodion as deliberately trying to frame me as a cultie.

Just because there has been bombs in other games doesn't mean there would be one in this game. Regardless of other mafia games, it is a very uncommon role and far too convenient of a claim.

If anything, I've been consistently warning about cult from Day 1, and that hasn't changed.

Yes, you have been warning about cult since day 1. And that was before we ever knew there was a cult! You're only digging yourself a bigger hole here, saf.

I'm gonna go ahead and vote safariguy now. Something tells me he won't be speedlynched.

Ok well, I thought our criteria for determining who is cult is by looking for changes in play style. I've been consistently saying cult was a problem, I see no changes in my play style here.

[Metsfanmax]

Ok well, I thought our criteria for determining who is cult is by looking for changes in play style. I've been consistently saying cult was a problem, I see no changes in my play style here.

That makes sense if they're recruited. If you started off as cult, then no, you wouldn't have necessarily changed your play style. It would make your Day 1 posts incredibly bold, but that doesn't mean we're wrong.

[Commander9]

People alive:

# Metsfanmax - roleblocker.
# Jimfinn - no claim, cult.
# commander9 - King Achilles
# Rodion - cult.
# Mr. Squirrel - PROBABLY town.
# safariguy5 - cult.
# Army of God - PROBABLY cult
# Pancakemix - busdriver.
# jeraado - town hunter

I'm around 90% sure that me, Mets, Pancake and Jeraado are pro-town as of now. Mr. Squirrel looks like pro-town, but he's good enough to fake it. Until AoG gets replaced, we really can't do much.

WE have 3 confirmed culties:

Safari
Rodion
Jimfinn

I am quite sure that Rodion is *not* the recruiter and I do doubt that Fin is - thus, I highly suggest we go for Safari. His bomb claim, especially at a situation like this, is a very big turn down, but I'm willing to test it. Should Safari would actually be bomb, I am sure he's a cult bomb, so we should still get a shot. Mr. Squirrel, since he's basically a VT now should be the one who is hammering. This, however, should wait, as I want to get AoG replaced first.

Cult coming out to actually try to negotiate shows that they are weak, in a way even pathetic (they beg someone to join) and while this game is not over, town still has a shot.

[Commander9]

Unvote, by the way. Does it strike odd to anyone else that my vote has been on Mr. S. for at least 2-3 days and cult didn't even attempt to lynch him?

[Metsfanmax]

Not so odd. pcm also had a vote on me for nearly 3 days and I didn't get speedlynched. Either they're waiting for something better, or they really are as disorganized as I suspect they are. Or, either you or pcm are cult...

[Commander9]

Not so odd. pcm also had a vote on me for nearly 3 days and I didn't get speedlynched. Either they're waiting for something better, or they really are as disorganized as I suspect they are. Or, either you or pcm are cult...

Possible, but I do find it odd. Oh well, maybe that's just me.

Furthermore, after rereading, when Rodion used that secret message and voted JimFinn, he was using smokescreen and it was likely that cult would have sacrificed JimFin... Which means he's not the recruiter. It HAS to be Safari or AoG.