Conquer Club

I always use it for quickness but lately ive been getting really odd results. Its not unfamiliar to lose 5 -1 at the moment. I know its always the losses you remember but hey. Or if not lets turn it into a what the worse auto attack lose ever! ?

I agree!

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9614

well lance, if 5 against 1 is not enuf.. u better start placing 10 to 1 ratios b4 u attempt an attack.. lol.. would really love to play u then.. ))

Lancey its always the losses you remem your fortune will change

i may have the best win 13 v 20 i had 4 left

I thought that too (I lost about 20 men once attacking a territory with 1 army) but then I tried using the ordinary attack button and I was still losing more men in 3v1s than I used to. I don't know if i'm imagining it or whatever but...

When you attack normaly, the computer randomly generates a number every time you press attack. How many times does the computer system randomly generate a number when you hit auto-attack? Is it just once, based on the odds of fighting with that amount of armies; or does it 'roll' as many times as it would if you attacked normally?

I don't know much about computers or math, so I don't know how good that explanation is. I think it must be the latter as the odds change after every subsequent dice roll. But if it was the former, then the probability of the dice giving you a bad number increases. The odd bad 'roll' is more likely to be diluted the more 'rolls' the system makes.

OK, the auto-attack button is exactly as the normal attack button, just that it runs as long as you have more than 3 armies and you don't conquer your target. IT IS EXACTLY AS PUSHING THE ATTACK BUTTON UNTIL YOU CONQUER OR YOU GET DOWN TO 3 ARMIES. Don't believe me? Use the Dice Analyzer and you'll see that the dice are random. It is only natural to have good luck and bad luck, and yes you can have the luck of loosing 20 vs 1. On average I throw about 3000 - 4000 dice weekly. In these throws I will have the luck of killing 40 with 25 or the "luck" of loosing 10 vs 1. In the end everything will balance out.

cyberdaniel wrote:OK, the auto-attack button is exactly as the normal attack button, just that it runs as long as you have more than 3 armies and you don't conquer your target. IT IS EXACTLY AS PUSHING THE ATTACK BUTTON UNTIL YOU CONQUER OR YOU GET DOWN TO 3 ARMIES. Don't believe me? Use the Dice Analyzer and you'll see that the dice are random. It is only natural to have good luck and bad luck, and yes you can have the luck of loosing 20 vs 1. On average I throw about 3000 - 4000 dice weekly. In these throws I will have the luck of killing 40 with 25 or the "luck" of loosing 10 vs 1. In the end everything will balance out.

Well there you are wrong. When you hit auto attack the computer piles through the rows at a very fast rate - making it likely you will get a whole set of rows together. Therefore if there is (as has been implied numerous times) a trend to the randomness then you will hit it. That could be good - but it could also be very bad.

When you hit attack normally and then 5 seconds later attack you have probably had a number of rows taken between your first and second attack - reducing the trend that can occur.

Tals

p.s dice analyser just looks at the total picture - it would be more useful to look for trends as we know that the total picture is random - however i'm pretty convinced it goes in trends

So you're saying you know when trends will appear and thus you will avoid them because of your skill at slow button pushing.

zip_disk wrote:So you're saying you know when trends will appear and thus you will avoid them because of your skill at slow button pushing.

Where did I say that?

Tals

p.s did you see the word probably?

OK, your theory will not hold. I've seen numbers from random.org and I worked on them and they don't give streaks. The only thing that might give streaks is when you push the attack button. Since the numbers are random we could assume that the chance of getting 6 high rolls in a row is small. Now since there are a lot of people playing you might get the good roll and others the bad roll for a period of time.

Example:
Lets say these are some numbers from random.org:
2 3 6 | 4 1 --> attacker wins
3 1 1 | 2 6 --> defender wins
3 5 5 | 4 5 --> tie
4 2 5 | 1 3 --> attacker wins
2 6 6 | 3 3 --> attacker wins
and so on ...

Say you get the first pair and you win. Now if 2 other people attack they will get the second and third pair. You attack again and you win again and this keeps repeating for a few turns.

Now if you were the only one attacking you would get the first 3 pairs and getting your stats closer to the expected odds. Now since this pattern can occur for ties and loses you'll still get the expected odds, just in some streaks.

While I agree that the dice are the impartial, I disagree with the idea that the above illustration is why the dice appear streaky. The fact that your dice are selected every so often shouldn't make them any more streaky than if they are selected one after another. That's just a hunch though, I lack a proof/demonstration for now.