maniacmath17 wrote:KLOBBER wrote:maniacmath17 wrote:
Actually, your numbers are off.
If those things actually happened (of which there is no proof by the way) then they were 100% likely to happen. 99.99541% is incorrect, and 99.8 is incorrect. The correct number, in each and every case, is that whatever patterns the dice actually manifest are 100% likely to manifest.
100% -- in reality, there is never any exception to this number.
What "should" or "should never" happen in a game is also something about which you are mistaken: In reality, what should happen in every game is that every player should be unable to predict the dice, just as you were unable to do in your two examples above. What should never happen in a game is for any player's predictions of the dice to come true. Your predictions did not come true, and so all is exactly as it should be.
"Man bites dog" would be reportable news. "Dog bites man," however, is not news, as it happens every day, many times, in every city. You have only reported that your own arbitrary and unscientific dice predictions were incorrect, just like everybody else's arbitrary predictions are always incorrect. You have merely reported two boring instances of "dog bites man," and this is not newsworthy, sadly.
I have seen hundreds of dice complaints, and each and every one of them contains attempts at predictions that are arbitrary, unscientific, and incorrect, just like yours, above. What I'm waiting to hear is a player, ANY player, reporting that his dice predictions were correct, just once. Now THAT would be real news, but it has never happened -- never. You were wrong, and the dice were right.
Have you no shame?
This is my challenge to all dice complainers: Predict correctly. Just once. Stop reporting "dog bites man." Report "man bites dog," just once, and then and only then will your text be considered to have some value, some meaning. Then, and only then, will you have some valid basis for a complaint. Don't be wrong -- be correct -- just once. But no, not a single dice complainer has ever reported any correct prediction of the dice, never reported any stats of actual note. Never. Not a single time. It's always dog bites man, dog bites man, dog bites man -- again, and again, and again. Reality check: this is NOT news, guys!
CONCLUSION:
All of the above only means that the dice work properly -- exactly as they were designed to work -- unpredictably.
Klobber, while I sort of see what you're saying, that kind of reasoning wouldn't fly in a statistics course....
If someone were to win the lottery 3 weeks in a row...
In that case, either the statistics course is also wrong, or your interpretation of it is wrong, or both. I have cited clear and irrefutable facts about the dice, and any attempted refutation of the unadorned facts must necessarily be incorrect.
By your "reasoning," if I flip a coin and it lands on heads, then, due to so-called "statistics," it must necessarily land on tails the second time, in order to line up with the unscientific and incorrect theory that it must match 50-50. However, real coins and real dice do not work that way, and neither do the dice on this site.
Also, your example of winning the lottery is flawed in that the dice complainers are not winning -- they are losing. If a guy loses the lottery 3 times, 30 times, or 3,000 times in a row, this is not news; it is par for the course.
Similarly, if a dice complainer predicts wrong twice in a row, as you did, it is not news.
In order for your example to hold any water, you would first have to predict RIGHT three times in a row, which you have not done. Your position is obviously more similar to the guy who repeatedly loses the lottery, which is, as I said in my original post, yet another example of "dog bites man," and is boring, quite expected, and by no means newsworthy.
According to your feeble brand of "logic," if I were to roll a die 5 times, yielding 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, then the next number must necessarily be 6. However, your thinking is as illogical as this example, and in reality, the previous rolls DO NOT determine the subsequent rolls. Real dice manifest independent of your unscientific theories, as do the CC dice.
You were wrong both times, and this is because your theory is wrong.
The dice are unpredictable, exactly as they are designed to be. Your errors prove, not that there is a problem with the dice, but that there is NO problem with the dice. Your thinking is diametrically opposed to reality, my friend, and I am beginning to doubt if you are even capable of apprehending the actual facts due to being unnaturally attached to your incorrect and unscientific preconceived notions.
However, the fact that you are consistently and undeniably wrong shows that what I am saying is fact.
By the way, no lottery is ever chosen "randomly." There are always specific parameters within which the numbers manifest, without exception. Specific and predictable parameters of manifestation are characteristics wholly divorced from the theoretical concept of "randomness," and as lotteries always possess such characteristics, they can never be defined as "random" in the least bit.
Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:51 pm
w/8 left over
