Conquer Club

You're in a 4 player flat rate sequential game, and you have the option with a 3 card set (as first to cash) of either eliminating an opponent with 2 cards and claiming a 2 bonus territory to go with the 4 that you already hold, or strengthening your hold on 3 bonus areas, with a good chance of holding them for a total bonus of 13 + your total/3 the following round - which would you do and why? (note - this is not the classic map).

And is asking for advice on a tournament game that's ongoing cheating? If so, don’t answer this until after I make my move, then I'll ask what others would have done...

ETA - a wrinkle is the need to also break an opponents bonus - option 2 will make that a LOT easier, though it's doable either way. Any advice humbly and gratefully received.

2 cards are only worth ~6 armies in a flat rate game, so if you'll spend more than this to kill him, it's not worth it. Also, by killing him and claiming another territory, you set up the other two players to use their cards against you and break your bonus. It's best to lay low, fortify or break someone else's bonus with your cards, and let the weak player take another card. If you can hold your +13, you'll probably be able to take out the player later, and it'll be worth more cards. Good luck.

If he's a pushover then nail him this turn. His two cards plus the one you get for kicking ass means three cards (and the chance of more reinforcements) next turn, and if you don't take him out while he's weak, someone else will. The only viable reason not to nail him would be if those reinforcements are what you need to take and/or hold an entire continent somewhere else on the board.