Conquer Club

I understand the die rolls are supposed to be properly randomized. However - after checking the 3rd party site and then conducting my own independent analysis on my last 2 games today. The auto-attack is not randomized well at all. The tendency on auto attack and attacks for the dice on both sides to remain in the same number differentials and frequently the same actual rolls on defense as initially rolled are way beyond the realm of probability - this is both positive and negative. Yet switch attacking countries and you seem to better effectively randomize them - like a reset.

The number of times in the last 5 days where my and others odds were close to 14-1 and I lost battles prompted me to look at this. Because of the model this game was taken from has a defensive advantage to tie rolls this mean a defensive advantage as a whole with this "bug"

What I want to know is how many others are experiencing similar. I grant that the explanation in the forums etc that it balances on both sides seems plausible - and I thought so at times as well but when I actually looked at it - it does not.

Also at particular issue is that the neutral countries in games that I have looked at (only 3) seem to have an eerily odd ability to roll quite highly.

I think it's something to look at as today I have lost a number of games going after the last army of a person with a 7 or 8 - 1 advantage and lose only to have someone co$me in with 2 on 1 and win and get the cards. I don't know about you guys but this in particular takes my enjoyment out of the game - especially when it occurs multiple times in a single day.

Well in your profile it says you have played 38 games and of those 38 games you have watched 2 games to see if the dice are random.

That is not enough played games to get the attention of the statistical people we have on board of CC.

I myself have played over 3100 games and I have never felt the need to check on the randomness of the dice. For the simple reason that the dice love me and I love the dice. The times I win it was because of my daring strategy the times I have lost have been because my strategy was not so good.

You and Jiminski should get together. Wasting your time checking the randomnosity of the dice generator...In my experience, at times it seems the generator gets stuck, but that is all a part of probability. If something has a certain percentage of being probable, then at sometime that particular set of events will occur. I have played real Risk board games and had the same type of seemingly improbable dice rolls. It is only my opinion, but I do not see any type of problem with the generator that CC uses. And as Wacicha mentioned, your control testing needs a larger number of games before any type of statistical evidence could be mustered.

One thing in that no one ever says anything about is the fact that the dice here are in fact MUCH better than reality.

In the Real World, some people are good enough at controlling their throws to roll 6 6 more often than should be statistically probable. If you practice enough - you'll win every defensive roll [of course, you should actually be practicing to roll 4 3 and head to Vegas/Atlantic City ...].

You can never be to sure with randomness

I just dont understand why good players never get bad dice

Aerial Attack wrote:One thing in that no one ever says anything about is the fact that the dice here are in fact MUCH better than reality.

In the Real World, some people are good enough at controlling their throws to roll 6 6 more often than should be statistically probable. If you practice enough - you'll win every defensive roll [of course, you should actually be practicing to roll 4 3 and head to Vegas/Atlantic City ...].

You know, you are so bloody right a single 1 on a risk game i played managed to hold out against a 13, first round, a 5 second round, and a 3 third round. It was worse 'cos it lost me the game when i was the only one to get a continent in the entire game.

the dice are random. i agree they sometimes seem to be crappy and streaky in the worst kind of moments.

like the latest battle royale. i auto-attack 12vs1 and the defender rolls 5 consecutive 6s. i end up with 6 troops in 1 place and 1 in another.
then a neighbor comes with 9 troops and attacks and kills all my troops with no loss.

immediately after i lost those rolls in BR i took my turn in another game and killed 25 with just 3 losses.

took apart those 2 particular attacks might seem streaky and unradom. but if you analyze thousands of throws you'll see they even out eventually and they are random.

I have now played over 20 games checking stats on the dice - I have hit one streak where the defender against me rolled a six 17 CONSECUTIVE times.

The differentials of where dice have been good vs. bad has remained at a near 3-1 ratio of 3 bad streaks to 1 good streak and the bad streaks lasted an average of 5 rolls to the good at 3 rolls.

I have seen others great great rolls against me but have not experienced great rolls in over 20 games. and my win total has seriously suffered during this examination. I have had three games where I could not get more than one army total - AFTER ATTACKING WITH ALL MY POSSIBLE ATTACKS.

The dice are disgustingly BAD - in this experience - and you all may say they are bad for all but the real question is are they sufficiently random to reflect real life.

Michael Kowalson wrote:I have now played over 20 games checking stats on the dice - I have hit one streak where the defender against me rolled a six 17 CONSECUTIVE times.

The differentials of where dice have been good vs. bad has remained at a near 3-1 ratio of 3 bad streaks to 1 good streak and the bad streaks lasted an average of 5 rolls to the good at 3 rolls.

I have seen others great great rolls against me but have not experienced great rolls in over 20 games. and my win total has seriously suffered during this examination. I have had three games where I could not get more than one army total - AFTER ATTACKING WITH ALL MY POSSIBLE ATTACKS.

The dice are disgustingly BAD - in this experience - and you all may say they are bad for all but the real question is are they sufficiently random to reflect real life.

still not enough, if you use a dice tracker add on and play long enough i can guarentee you that the percentages will be close to where they should be (what is it.. 16%?)

it is proven that the more data you collect and average the more accurate your findings are

talk to me when you have 100,000 dice rolls.

then do a follow up when you have 1 million

<groans> Yet another, "why the dice suck" thread.

Suck it up, cupcake!

borox0 wrote:You can never be to sure with randomness

Dilbert

Michael Kowalson wrote:I have now played over 20 games checking stats on the dice - I have hit one streak where the defender against me rolled a six 17 CONSECUTIVE times.

There have been almost 900,000 games. Even if everyone of those were 1v1 games, the number of dice rolls would be well into the billions.

Dice rolls selected from the rolls of one player over 20 games is NOWHERE NEAR enough of a proper sampling to justify accurate statistics.

Collect data until you have something worth reporting, then maybe we'll believe that the dice aren't truly random.

Until then, get over it.

Dodo C. Snotts wrote:<groans> Yet another, "why the dice are bad" thread.

Get tough, cupcake the dice are random!

modified by JesusReigns from post above

Jesus tapdancing christ, i've lost efvery single dice toss today! Baaaaaaaad luck, I swear.

yeah the dice are killing me at the moment15 games in a row and over 300 points. Everytime i go for a kill i fail when it should`nt then people take me out with mad attacks that work. All this after i posted something negative about conquer club! I think it is definitely possible the have ur dice rigged by the powers that be here.

I am totally new to this, and these odds seem ridiculous. I just attempted 5 auto-attacks....five different countries attacking....not only did I not take a single territory, I didn't take a single ARMY. None. I seem to lose around 80-85% of the time. I really like this game, but when it's just "click", then watch your armies fall to 1 automatically....I don't know how long I'll be sticking around here. If there is soemthing wrong with the randomizer, I hope it gets fixed.

Phil1580 wrote:I am totally new to this, and these odds seem ridiculous. I just attempted 5 auto-attacks....five different countries attacking....not only did I not take a single territory, I didn't take a single ARMY. None. I seem to lose around 80-85% of the time. I really like this game, but when it's just "click", then watch your armies fall to 1 automatically....I don't know how long I'll be sticking around here. If there is soemthing wrong with the randomizer, I hope it gets fixed.

Auto-attack doesn't take your armies to 1. It stops at 3 (although it can go down to 2 - this happens when you attack with 4 and lose both.)

What's more, you shouldn't normally be attacking so much that you take your armies down to 1, as by that point, the odds are usually against you anyway.

As for my rolls, I have recorded 187,726 rolls, both attacking and defending, and all of my results are within 1% of what would be expected. The dice appear to be...oh my God...random.

When you've played CC games long enough in excess of 6 months and many enough in excess of 200 games, you'll discover that the die is actually random and independent.

So, get ahead by mastering the die as well as secure the most strategic of positions and launch feasible tactics.

blame random.org

Funny though ?, people only talk about bad dice, in a game yesterday i attacked 13 to 12 and walked thru with 9 left, yes ive had plenty bad rolls, but i have no probs with the dice. Also when the armies are larger ie 40 to 20 the attacking advantage tends to be better as the law of averages would suggest.

yes sometime the dice seem "stuck". but as mentioned in another topic i recently read, "it is human nature to remeber your loses more than your wins". therefore causing you to think that it is unfair or bias against you. in other words....SUCK IT UP AND DRIVE ON. or you could quit and go home. your choice.

Herakilla wrote:
still not enough, if you use a dice tracker add on and play long enough i can guarentee you that the percentages will be close to where they should be (what is it.. 16%?)

it is proven that the more data you collect and average the more accurate your findings are

I'm well aware of how to do a proper and ethical statistical analysis - used to do it for a living - and I'm saying - over 20 games - now at 23 and the odds are totally NOT matching up.

insomniacdude wrote:

Michael Kowalson wrote:I have now played over 20 games checking stats on the dice - I have hit one streak where the defender against me rolled a six 17 CONSECUTIVE times.

There have been almost 900,000 games. Even if everyone of those were 1v1 games, the number of dice rolls would be well into the billions.

Dice rolls selected from the rolls of one player over 20 games is NOWHERE NEAR enough of a proper sampling to justify accurate statistics.

Collect data until you have something worth reporting, then maybe we'll believe that the dice aren't truly random.

Until then, get over it.

hey dude - ever check the statistical possibility of 17 rolls of six in a row (with 13 of those being double sixes)? it's total bull - the chances are quadrillions to 1 so if the die rolls are into the billions and I've seen a 2 series the hit the billion to 1, 1 that hits the quadrillion to 1 and a 5 in the millions to 1 range - in just 20 games - there's a SERIOUS issue.