More Strategy Explanation

[kerosion]

I liked what KennyC has started in Strategy Explanation Game, thought I'd recap a game of my own. Curious what outside opinions exist.

Round 1


Round Recap
Start of a 6 player standard game. Teal and Pink have taken turns before me, neither picking up a card. My armies are scattered evenly about the map with the tightest congregation lying in Africa.

Deployment
The initial phase, until card sets start appearing, is usually about preservation of as many of my armies as possible for me in a 6 player match. I want to ensure sufficient strength to knock out an overstretched opponent or jump into a power vacuum left from others movement / fighting.

As I don't have an unusually large portion of any one continent under my control I'm content to distribute units about my African holdings. I want to discourage those territories from being milked for early cards and give the impression that I may be going for that continent (might encourage Yellow to move outward when green consolidates toward Europe or Australia.) I may follow through on Africa, or I may not. Depends on where resistance becomes lightest on the map in the following rounds.

[magneticgoop]

i'd attack madagascar or east africa to discourage yellow from taking africa teal will then try to take australia and yellow will try to clump in northern asia

[Heimdall]

IMHO. Load-up on North Africa and only get 1 country per turn for your card.. Wait to see if yellow leaves Africa. You always have the option of invading South America after pink has conquered Venezuela/Argentina. You can also use your central America to help with this endeavor

[kerosion]

Round 2


Round Recap
Still holding my territories, but Yellow has called my bluff in Africa and moved the bulk of his forces there.

Deployment
I would prefer avoiding a direct engagement with an opponent this early so as to preserve the ability to knock out a weak opponent after cards come into play, yet I don't see another option. With the low probability of 1 unit holding off 3-dice attacks, moving my forces out of Africa would sacrifice a minimum of 3 units. Egypt, N. Africa, and S. Africa. Allowing Yellow to strengthen would ensure attacks on my territories.

Pink has another turn to control S. America and Teal has a few turns to go on Australia. It's risky but I underscore my intent on Africa and preempt a war of attrition by deploying 1 unit on Egypt, N. Africa, and S. Africa and attacking E.Africa. I feel it best to be the aggressor in the inevitable conflict. With 5 units on each territory the worst case scenario is 3 units are left behind on a failed attack. Attacking with 2-dice has a lower probability of success and I don't want to leave 2 units behind on any of these territories. I attack until there are 4 units left per territory. For a card and to give Yellow a way out I finish off with the Middle East.

The aim is to coerce Yellow to regroup elsewhere, allowing me to focus more on what's happening in S. America and the border with Europe.

[Coleman]

The awesomeness of your rolls that round makes my eyes tear up.

[KennyC]

I can't argue with those rolls, but another option might have been going directly into South America. Just taking Brazil really would have forced Pink to focus somewhere else. But it doesn't take care of yellow, so your move is probably superior to mine as yellow was obviously your biggest threat.

[Bob Janova]

What this brings out is that any strategy looks better if you can talk nicely to the dice gods . It would have been so easy to end up with that looking exactly the same but a 7 still on East Africa.

[Coleman]

What this brings out is that any strategy looks better if you can talk nicely to the dice gods . It would have been so easy to end up with that looking exactly the same but a 7 still on East Africa.

This is very true, but I believe regardless of the luck factor for anyone interested in learning this was still the right move. Giving up your obvious advantage in Africa of 12 to 9 to move into South America or somewhere else would have lost him a lot more guys then rolling it out in Africa did.

Now you could argue that if it was still 12 to 9 after this yellow would have made it 12 to 12 and likely would have taken 4 or more away, but it still would have given Red the option to fight back, and seems favorable to being eaten apart from both sides with a South America move.

In this case now Yellow isn't in a very good position and teal seems more interested in Australia then in interfering with Red in Africa.

[kerosion]

Round 3


Yellow has stubbornly deployed more units in Africa setting themselves up to remain as my biggest threat. Pink has surprised me with the lucky dice picking up Venezuela and taking Central America from me in the same round, taking advantage of my distraction in Africa. On a positive note, Green has suddenly awoke from missed turns and gone after Australia resulting in a stalemate of sorts.

I can't put forth a solid front until I get Yellow out from behind it. Pink has expanded faster than I expected, but to do anything about it is to leave myself exposed. I deploy and attack E.Africa again. I lose more units than I'm happy with but Yellow no longer has a foothold on the continent.

Pink is still in control of S.America, but this could be to my advantage. Blue is sitting on 11 units on Ontario. Pink made a mistake in taking Central America. The expansion spread their forces too thin and my units no longer provide a buffer for Blue to overcome before breaking control. I'm betting that Pink has provided sufficient compulsion for Blue to break S.America for me. Hopefully Pink will chew threw some of Blue's units before I have to deal with them.

[Coleman]

I don't expect to see you or yellow win at this point, I think yellow's second choice of deployment was a mistake and he probably could have had Europe by now if he had done things differently.

[alster]

I don't expect to see you or yellow win at this point, I think yellow's second choice of deployment was a mistake and he probably could have had Europe by now if he had done things differently.

Holding Europe in a six player standard game? Even if it could be done, it's still not the right thing to do.

[Coleman]

I don't expect to see you or yellow win at this point, I think yellow's second choice of deployment was a mistake and he probably could have had Europe by now if he had done things differently.

Holding Europe in a six player standard game? Even if it could be done, it's still not the right thing to do.

It's preferable to placing yourself into the 12v9 situation he did. Even if you wanted to call that blocking red he left himself without much of a chance for anywhere. He could have taken all but 1 of Europe to seem a non threat until he was capable of keeping it. He'd still have probably kept all of his Asia holdings for a while since most consider that equally impossible and stupid and received some sort of extra territory bonuses.

Regardless, moving everything into Africa wasn't his best move.

[Night Strike]

Random question. That chart that is posted on the bottom of the map screen shots, how do I get it?? That looks very helpful and I don't know which add-on it is.

[Coleman]

Random question. That chart that is posted on the bottom of the map screen shots, how do I get it?? That looks very helpful and I don't know which add-on it is.

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15149
You need to use Firefox and install the grease monkey add on first to run the script, but that is all explained in the topic.

[Night Strike]

Thanks. And of course I run firefox........it's the best. And I already have the dice analyzer.

[kerosion]

Round 4


Yellow has abandoned Africa taking Ukraine from Green, taking pressure off me. Blue has been moved to action breaking Pinks hold on S.America. Pink, on shaky ground after over-extending, takes a card from Blue's undefended back. Teal and Green continue annihilating one another.

I've got a temporary reprieve from serious outside threats, but I've been left more vulnerable than I'm comfortable with. Blue's 10 units in S.America may become a problem. Hopefully Pink will try and salvage S.America and delay the threat, or chew away at more undefended territory forcing Blue to disperse those units elsewhere. I have an opportunity to reinforce my position, I'll need it as cards come into play.

I take Madagascar and fortify E.Africa the heaviest. I should have a round before Blue assaults Africa, if it happens. My aim in fortifying E.Africa is to ensure Yellow doesn't see anything attractive in a renewed assault from the Middle East.

That I have been left with units in Australia is a tempting invitation to mop up the region. To do so at this point would undermine the work I've put into Africa however. I would be left without full control of either Africa or Australia, dooming both to failure. Best case scenario, Green and Teal are left nowhere to go but west. Worst case scenario I'm slowly picked clean from both ends.

I'm leaving Teal in control of the Congo for two reasons. At any moment Green can take the advantage in Australia leaving Teal all but eliminated. I'm in position to finish them off for their cards in that scenario. My surrounding territories should buffer Congo from other players attempts to finish Teal. Also by not taking control of the entire African continent I give the other players a reason to not attack me. I can't defend the continent with the units I have. I will wait until luck is less of a factor.

[KennyC]

I concur with your moves this turn.

But, if teal is reading any of this (cheeseman...?) why haven't you gone after Oceania?

[kerosion]

Round 5


I'm short on time at the moment so keeping things brief. Will likely edit later.

Round Recap
Blue is threatening my holdings from S.America. I can't complete my hold on Africa until that's resolved. Cards should be coming into play soon, I need to limit their impact on me.

Deployment
I take S.Europe from Yellow. This leaves one path of attack into Africa for Yellow, through Egypt, instead of the two paths taking Middle East would have left. I fortify a bit heavier on N.Africa. Blue has played things conservatively thus far. My bet is they won't risk that much of their force at this time to attack with. I still think I'll be too diluted to not be picked clean if I place reinforcements into Australia.

[kerosion]

Round 6


Round Recap
I have a blue card set available this round, including E.Africa and Irkutsk. Green is vulnerable to elimination. Yellow and Teal are loaded heavily in that direction with the potential to fire off card sets in two rounds. Blue has taken S.America and threatens to push into Africa if allowed to grow.

Deployment
The possibility exists to use my cards to eliminate Green this round then use the second set of cards to push back Blue. I can't see many options that lead to the win if the attempt fails however. Using my cards to break Blue's hold on S.America relieves tension on that border and gives me the potential to hold Africa. I use my cards to deploy 11 units on N.Africa, taking Brazil. As Yellow and Green would be hard pressed to eliminate Teal this round, I take Congo as well. With Brazil and Africa in my control I consider defensive possibilities.

Blue may have a card set ready to deploy. If that's the case I would be hard pressed to hold Africa from a 13 unit assault (turn+cards, 3+10). Blue seems to find comfort in defending with a large number of troops on a border when considering past rounds. Given 13 units it seems probable that Blue will either re-take S.America and reinforce, as re-taking then breaking my hold on Africa will leave their units spread thin barring outstanding rolls. The other likely scenario would be for Blue to deploy on W.Europe, taking advantage of the 3 units already there, then moving through N.Africa to Brazil. Worst case the units:turn remains equal between us and without holding a continent a larger defending force may be prepared. This considers one ignores Pink with 5 cards sitting on Blue's back end however. With Pink to consider, a display of force on the border at N.Africa should be sufficient to keep Blue at bay. If I can remove the temptation from the units on W.Europe as well the odds of holding Africa in any situation is high. I attack W.Europe to remove temptation.

*The 2 Units on Brazil: I have reinforced Brazil to defend with 2 units. The main reason is the probability of winning in 3v1 dice situations. Considering Taflin's "The Probability Distribution of Risk Battles" the probability of Blue winning the dice roll in a 3v1 situation is roughly 65%. If I leave 2 units on Brazil Blue's likelihood of retaking the territory without any losses drops to about 37%. Throughout the match I've taken great effort to try and minimize situations where an opponent may take units from me in a 3v1 situation. I try to ensure at least an equal loss of units in exchange for my units eliminated. Leaving 2 units in Brazil supports this aim. As the extra unit will be put to the purpose of eliminating Blue units anyhow I move one up from N.Africa.

*A secondary reason for 2 units is psychological. It is human nature to note failures more readily than success. Hence 100s of comments about terrible rolls of the dice for every 1 on decimating an opponent from the weaker position. I want Blue to lose a unit or two in the process of retaking Brazil. I want Blue to have that thought fresh in their mind when considering whether to continue the attack on N.Africa. I want anyone in the match to lose a unit or two every time I'm attacked. I want everyone in the game to think of that whenever evaluating an attack on say S.Europe vs. Greens 1 unit on Afghanistan.

Green will most likely use their cards to solidify Australia. Blue can retake S.America, but unless they have a RGB card set shouldn't be able to break my hold on Africa. Yellow seems to be aiming to eliminate Teal or Green to gain strength through cards and Australia. Teal is in a tough spot, might want to consider moving west and trying to rebuild units. Pink has nowhere to go but into Blue with their cards, will likely try and take N.America.

I'm in position to eliminate opponents.

[Coleman]

I've been busy this weekend, but I'm still interested in this and nobody else seems to be posting so I'm worried you'll stop.

[boberz]

im reading and enjoying

[KennyC]

I'm curious about your choice to leave two guys in Brazil instead of just one (also S. Europe but lets focus on the South America position). Care to elaborate on this? Is it purely mathematical (2vs.3 win% > 1vs.3 win%)? Certainly the counter argument would be if you moved them back to Africa they can be used the next turn for the attacking advantage, whereas right now they are put in a weak defensive position that is already at a statistical disadvantage.

[Coleman]

I like knowing that to get their continent back they have to deal with one defensive 2 dice roll at the least, which is much more powerful then a single die by itself. But I'm by no means a brilliant player.

[sharrakor]

I'm interested as well in this. It's good to actually know what's going on in the heads of players sometimes. And as an observer, I've actually learned a couple new strategies already. Keep us updated, this is good stuff.

[kerosion]

I've edited Round 6 to provide more detail on my attacks and included discussion on why (*)2 units in Brazil.