Conquer Club

self-expainatory

It's difficult to quantify but I would say it's a very high percentage. Although I cannot strategize my way out of a paper bag, I have been enjoying unprecedented success on this site lately. It all pretty much comes down to luck for me.

Probably got a few to many options in your poll there but my opinion is that the best players will usually come through. Of course, luck will occassionally screw them but strategy should allow for bad luck anyway. Those who voted 90-100 are fools

18.73645937%, give or take 0.00000003%

I used to think that Luck played a major part....but then I started playing 1v1 games and my win percent is steadily rising. So I figure luck plays a less important part now. 50-40.

kwanton wrote:I used to think that Luck played a major part....but then I started playing 1v1 games and my win percent is steadily rising. So I figure luck plays a less important part now. 50-40.

actually luck plays his most important role in 1vs1.

i had 2 1vs1 games with a friend. both realtime both on the same map one after another.
in the first game i had a lucky deployment plus lucky cards and dice and stormed the game. 10 minutes after he got lucky deployment great dice and cards and kicked my ass. we're both of roughly the same value and we know our strategies and style (we've played a few hundred games on the real cardoard risk). so clearly luck is very important in 1vs1.

DiM wrote:

kwanton wrote:I used to think that Luck played a major part....but then I started playing 1v1 games and my win percent is steadily rising. So I figure luck plays a less important part now. 50-40.

actually luck plays his most important role in 1vs1.

i had 2 1vs1 games with a friend. both realtime both on the same map one after another.
in the first game i had a lucky deployment plus lucky cards and dice and stormed the game. 10 minutes after he got lucky deployment great dice and cards and kicked my ass. we're both of roughly the same value and we know our strategies and style (we've played a few hundred games on the real cardoard risk). so clearly luck is very important in 1vs1.

Well thanks for making me look stupid lol.

Anyway I was trying to say if luck really did play much of a role in games my win percent would have stayed the same (50/50 chance of winning?) but instead it has gone up.

40%, in my opinion. Superior strategy is the most important factor, but a bad dice can completely spoil your tactics.
In a 1v1 game, luck counts for 80%. =/
I mean, I set up everything nicely, the guy conquers a +8 units continent leaves his border undefended, yet he, with 3 troops, manages to conquer 2 terrotories with 4 troops total and break in my continent, and I can't kill a single troop with 6 in the same game. Wtf?

i would definatly say luck doesnt play too much of a factor, besides starting positions where it is PURE luck

i recently had a 1v1 game in world 2.1 where the other guy only had to conquer 4 territories for two bonuses but with some odd fighting and seriosuly taking advantage of how many territories there are in that map i got him

that was a fun game

Whenever the other guy or the other team wins I think it's luck. Whenever either my team or I are victorious, it's obviously due to skill and strategy.

It depends, are you talking about one game? Then luck is huge. Are you looking at a batch of a thousand games? Then skill separates the chaff from the wheat.

In other words sure Benji might beat Blitz in a game or two but is going to beat him over the course of thousand games? No.

Bell curves aren't as fun if you chop off the ends.

luns101 wrote:Whenever the other guy or the other team wins I think it's luck. Whenever either my team or I are victorious, it's obviously due to skill and strategy.

QFT

I'd say that luck plays a part in about 60-70% of a games outcome and the remaining 30-40% is strategy. If you consider that good strategy will always beat bad strategy, (luck aside of course) and that luck will play towards either sides favor about 50% of the time, then you can deduce that a good player will beat a bad player about 70% of the time.

Let me explain this further. The 60-70% is split into two due to luck playing no favorites in the long run. (As much as we'd like to believe otherwise) The remaining 30-40% are the games that the good strategy will beat bad strategy where luck weighed equally on both sides. So the good player will beat the bad player in 35-40% of the games decided by luck and 30-40% of the games where luck is roughly equal giving him about a 65-70% win percentage over bad players.

A good player will beat a decent player a lesser percentage of the time due to the decent player actually having a part in that 30-40%. A good player will then beat a good player about 50% of the time due to the 30-40% being split equally among the players.

I couldn't decide if a good player usually beats a bad player 65 or 70 percent of the time so I included both.

Sgt. Drake wrote:I'd say that luck plays a part in about 60-70% of a games outcome and the remaining 30-40% is strategy. If you consider that good strategy will always beat bad strategy, (luck aside of course) and that luck will play towards either sides favor about 50% of the time, then you can deduce that a good player will beat a bad player about 70% of the time.

Let me explain this further. The 60-70% is split into two due to luck playing no favorites in the long run. (As much as we'd like to believe otherwise) The remaining 30-40% are the games that the good strategy will beat bad strategy where luck weighed equally on both sides. So the good player will beat the bad player in 35-40% of the games decided by luck and 30-40% of the games where luck is roughly equal giving him about a 65-70% win percentage over bad players.

A good player will beat a decent player a lesser percentage of the time due to the decent player actually having a part in that 30-40%. A good player will then beat a good player about 50% of the time due to the 30-40% being split equally among the players.

I couldn't decide if a good player usually beats a bad player 65 or 70 percent of the time so I included both.

I like my explanation better. And by the way, don't ever join any of my games as it's obvious from your post that you are smarter than me.

A couple of observations:

1)The more games you play, the less luck matters (duh).

2) The longer the game, the less important "lucky" dice become. That is, dice are the first thing to average out to the proper odds. Because you roll them so often.

3) Cards, if you're playing with them, are probably the biggest sources of luck in the game. Original country placement has a higher variance, but "lucky" placements are hard to quantify.

4) The games least affected by luck are "no cards" games. (But, they still suck.) Flat rate games are probably most affected (counter intuitively). Escalating lie somewhere in between.

5) The games most affected by luck are, well, that's a toughie. I'd reckon flat-rate assassin games. The combination of lucky placement versus the off chance of drawing a mix set makes for some pretty wacky games (to say nothing of what happens if your target suddenly deadbeats).

6) I'm waiting with great anticipation to hear what Tahininini (or however it's spelt) thinks. (Even though he's still wrong about the whole missed turn thing.)

Herakilla wrote:i would definatly say luck doesnt play too much of a factor, besides starting positions where it is PURE luck

i recently had a 1v1 game in world 2.1 where the other guy only had to conquer 4 territories for two bonuses but with some odd fighting and seriosuly taking advantage of how many territories there are in that map i got him

that was a fun game

I had worse - my opponent started with Scandanavia on the Europe map - game was over in 3 rounds

Good strategy cannot overcome bad luck, and in most cases, bad luck equals bad rolls.

You can have the perfect strategy, but if you have say a 8 vs 3, and you lose 6 in a row, your strategy doesn't mean squat.

But bad luck can also equate to poor opponents as well as their poor strategies and such.

Luck plays a huge roll in everything, this is no exception, how else can you explain some1 having one area left and managing to win the game

in most of my games deployment is a lot

I went 20-30% but it depends on how many people and what kind of game.

luns101 wrote:Whenever the other guy or the other team wins I think it's luck. Whenever either my team or I are victorious, it's obviously due to skill and strategy.

Whenever the other guy wins, I can differentiate between luck and strategy.

It really depends on whos playing the game. If opponents are relatively equally matched (whether all good or all bad) then I would say luck is upwards of 70%.

If there is a great discrepancy in the skill of the opponents, then I think luck is much less important....perhaps under 30% or even 20% depending on the skill gap.

sully800 wrote:It really depends on whos playing the game. If opponents are relatively equally matched (whether all good or all bad) then I would say luck is upwards of 70%.

If there is a great discrepancy in the skill of the opponents, then I think luck is much less important....perhaps under 30% or even 20% depending on the skill gap.

I read through all the responses and this one made the most sense. In games against relative equals luck seems to be all important. In the other games you can usually count on the person of lesser skill (possibly me) making a mistake and blowing the game even if they had luck to begin with.

In 1v1 games I'd say luck is more like 70%.

Skill can also be about focus and concentration. I've lost a few games played on the laptop because I have trouble with the mousepad since I'm used to a trackball. If I weren't so lazy and went upstairs to the other computer I would have won those games. A hardcore player wouldn't make that mistake over and over again. It's not luck.

Actually it more depends on the type of game than anything else...

if two equal players are in a 2 player game, luck is really 95% of the game...if his dice are good and yours bad...its over...and quick...doesnt matter what you do, you die

to a lesser degree the same is too in trips and doubles...bad teams can kill good ones with good dice

but in multiplayer games especially 6 player escalating, luck hardly factors in...probably more like 10-20% in most cases...the other players decide it more than the dice do

in no cards games with great players, luck may never even come into play except for an individual round or too...the players more often decide those than the dice..not to say a bad loss or win cant affect the game

With a few exceptions, the best man will usually win. Sure, luck effects a large percentage of the game, but that percentage is statistically the same for all players. It's the remaining fraction that makes all the difference.