Conquer Club

Can anyone who's good at maths tell me if theres a 100% chance of gettng 2 sets with 7 cards?

Nope. You could have 5 blue cards and 2 red cards, for instance.

thanks. You must be a maths genius.... or, I could be not thinking straight.

poo-maker wrote::D thanks. You must be a maths genius.... or, I could be not thinking straight.

Probably both. I'm extremly quick at mental math (I rarely use calculator during classes, when everyone else uses for almost anything), and it seemed pretty obvious.

Yeah, im usually not a bad thinker. but its 6.26 am, and i didn't sleep last night

I didn't sleep either funnily enough.

That's not funny at all...

no I don't suppose it is, in fact I know it isn't

5 blue and 2 green is not math, that's logical thinking.

It was 2 red, not 2 green!

Note of course that...

3 Red 2 Green 2 Blue is 2 sets... both mixed...

Poo Maker - generally you should have 2 sets... but you may be unlucky...

Of course you could rule out some possibilities depending on what you have in your hand?

i.e. if you have 2 blue 1 red 1 green - and you get 3 more cards then you will definitiely get 2 sets...

C.

poo-maker wrote:Can anyone who's good at maths tell me if theres a 100% chance of gettng 2 sets with 7 cards?

noway bro the chances of having 2 sets at 7 cards are the same as having a set at 4 cards which is 66%
meaning u might cash the 1st set , but the 2nd 1 u could end up with 2 pairs
Cheers, Bro
I think u already know this , remember the game where u were my bloody partner??????against Fp and dixie i took u out for 2 sets had 7 cards end up only with 1 set and we lost the stupid game

yeti_c wrote:Note of course that...

3 Red 2 Green 2 Blue is 2 sets... both mixed...

Poo Maker - generally you should have 2 sets... but you may be unlucky...

Of course you could rule out some possibilities depending on what you have in your hand?

i.e. if you have 2 blue 1 red 1 green - and you get 3 more cards then you will definitiely get 2 sets...

C.

Or he could be extremely unlucky and end up with 7 red cards

yeti_c wrote:if you have 2 blue 1 red 1 green - and you get 3 more cards then you will definitiely get 2 sets...

2B + 1R + 1G = 4 cards

you receive one more card (first extra card), a red card:

2B + 2R + 1G = 5 cards

you must cash a set (BRG):

1B + 1R = 2 cards

you receive one more card (second extra card), a blue card:

2B + 1R = 3 cards

you receive one more card (third extra card), a red card:

2B + 2R = 4 cards

You started with 4 cards, you received 3 more cards, and you cashed only one set (BRG).

You must have 8 cards for it to be guaranteed that you will have two sets. Here's an example:

2B + 2R + 1G = 5 cards in hand, 5 cards received in total

You have 5 cards so you must cash a set (BRG):

1B + 1R = 2 cards in hand, 5 cards received in total

You receive a blue card and then a red card:

2B + 2R = 4 cards in hand, 7 cards received in total

The next card you receive will give you 5 cards in hand, and whenever you have 5 cards in hand you are guaranteed to have a set. Lets assume the card is green:

2B + 2R + 1G = 5 cards in hand, 8 cards received in total

You must cash the set (BRG), leaving you with:

1B + 1R = 2 cards in hand, 8 cards received in total

So you received 8 cards in total and cashed two sets.

In a game if you have 3 cards in hand and you eliminate your opponent having 5 cards in hand, you will have 8 cards in hand and that guarantees that you will cash in two sets.

tahitiwahini wrote:

yeti_c wrote:if you have 2 blue 1 red 1 green - and you get 3 more cards then you will definitiely get 2 sets...

You must have 8 cards for it to be guaranteed that you will have two sets.

Tahiti as usual is right but I think you have missed the "I hold 4 and gain 3 at once' scenario in the sequence of events above.

However if you have 2*blue and 2*red and then gain 3 more red, you will only have 1 set to trade and hence you must have 8 cards to guarantee 2 sets

Captain Crash wrote:Tahiti as usual is right but I think you have missed the "I hold 4 and gain 3 at once' scenario in the sequence of events above.

That's what I was about to point out...

C.

chessplaya wrote:

poo-maker wrote:Can anyone who's good at maths tell me if theres a 100% chance of gettng 2 sets with 7 cards?

noway bro the chances of having 2 sets at 7 cards are the same as having a set at 4 cards which is 66%
meaning u might cash the 1st set , but the 2nd 1 u could end up with 2 pairs

Your math is a bit off there. If you don't have a set with 3 cards, then your chances of getting a set when you receive your fourth is indeed 66.6%. If you include those possibilities where you have a set with 3 cards then you will have a set with 4 cards somewhere around 77% of the time (I forget the actual figure).

With 7 cards, I think the chance of having two sets is 5 in 6 or 83.33%, though my calculations might be wrong. However, if you have at least 1 of each colour in your hand already then you are guaranteed two sets.

IronE.GLE wrote:Or he could be extremely unlucky and end up with 7 red cards

True, but at least he would be cashing in two sets and he would additionally get:

2 * 6 * (t / T) extra armies, where t is the number of countries owned and T is the total countries on the map,

for owning the country on a cashed card.

I can imagine a scenario that would be worse than that involving only one (non-red) card set cashed. So, cashing two red card sets during the same turn isn't too unfortunate.

tahitiwahini wrote:

IronE.GLE wrote:Or he could be extremely unlucky and end up with 7 red cards

True, but at least he would be cashing in two sets and he would additionally get:

2 * 6 * (t / T) extra armies, where t is the number of countries owned and T is the total countries on the map,

for owning the country on a cashed card.

I can imagine a scenario that would be worse than that involving only one (non-red) card set cashed. So, cashing two red card sets during the same turn isn't too unfortunate.

Surely you could have 5 Reds and 2 greens...

That's gotta be the worst!!

I thought this was going to be a thread suggesting that you dont have to cash till seven cards...now that would be fun....stupid...but fun....can you imagine escalating taking 7 cards, when you have 6 already...and cashing 4 times....might be a little silly

Thanks for all the help guys.

any1 ever tripled cashed? i did once ages ago but only cos then i could say i had done it. wasn't particularly tactically correct but i couldn't miss the oportunity

joeyjordison wrote:any1 ever tripled cashed? i did once ages ago but only cos then i could say i had done it. wasn't particularly tactically correct but i couldn't miss the oportunity

haha no.

yeti_c wrote:

Captain Crash wrote:Tahiti as usual is right but I think you have missed the "I hold 4 and gain 3 at once' scenario in the sequence of events above.

That's what I was about to point out...

C.

Even if you hold 7 cards all at one time, you still are not guaranteed two sets to cash.

Example:

5R + 2G = 7 cards in hand

but only 1 set (RRR).

With 8 cards you are always guranteed two sets to cash.

joeyjordison wrote:any1 ever tripled cashed? i did once ages ago but only cos then i could say i had done it. wasn't particularly tactically correct but i couldn't miss the oportunity

Quadruple cash in one turn (2 double cashes)...

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=294298

Triple cash - must have been the worst in history though as I got 4 6 & 8 in an escalator... although 6 of the cards I owned...

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=330681

Even if you hold 7 cards all at one time, you still are not guaranteed two sets to cash.

Example:

5R + 2G = 7 cards in hand

but only 1 set (RRR).

With 8 cards you are always guranteed two sets to cash.

I'm not disputing that but my example of

if you have 2 blue 1 red 1 green

Will always give you a double set with 7 cards (IF) you inherit the other 3 at the same time...

C.