Conquer Club

There is one example I recall reading in an article of a game on the classic map. Midway through the game, the player holding Australia deadbeated out of the game, turning all his troops, including the 20+ stack defending Australia into neutrals. However, later in the game, one player who had not secured any bonuses and was wandering around Asia got greedy. He conquered Australia, and may have thought he was in good shape with only 1 border to defend, but he had not taken into account Australia had been effectively turned into a worthless territory. The amount of time it would have taken a mere +2 bonus to replenish the numbers he lost taking it was too great, and he had already lost too much momentum in a gamestate where the other players now all had that many more troops to use against him. He was the first to be eliminated through conquest, and the other players fell soon after because of this mistake.

So, my question for you is how do you decide when it's "worth it?" When you look at a bonus you want, and consider the cost of obtaining it, what things do you consider, and how do you draw the line?

If I can't regain my losses in 5 turns I usually won't go for it right away. I like to spread out my conquests over several turns so that I'm not harmed by my efforts; opponents tend to not build on borders that are well defended as they don't want to provoke a war. This frees up the troops I get per turn to be used to fighting a war against someone else and, with a slow strategy, I'm able to defend the newly acquired territory from snipers.

One or two conquests at at time is not as alarming to opponents, either. Sometimes I will take most of a region and hold it weakly: that way no one is threatened and they don't ally against me. Then I will build up a reserve behind my original lines and wait until other players are embroiled in a war or out of cards (or until I have 4 or 5). Then I can use this turn's troops to finish the conquest and protect that border, and use the reinforcements to protect the other(s), presenting a fait accompli to everyone else, that is too expensive for them to break.

If you provide the settings (specifically spoils) it is easier to give advice. There are different strategies for every type of play.

Number of players
Fog/No Fog
Spoil Type
Trench/No Trench

All play big rolls in strategy

Forts not so much but maybe a little


Two times I would not go for a bonus:
If you are not going to be able to recover your losses (game will be over before you earn from the bonus what you lost taking it)
You can't safely guarantee you will hold the bonus after taking it

In escalating games going for the bonus is usually not a good idea either. In big maps you may go for bonuses but on smaller maps or less regions per player you don't want to be doing this. Taking a bonus thins out your troop count and prevents you from having access to people for kills. Which are both important to winning in escalating singles.