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1756208043 Conquer Club • View topic - Dice misconceptions.
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Dice misconceptions.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 4:57 am
by MorsGotha
I used to think the dice were jinxed too. I learned. I'm not the happy fluffy type quoting probabilities and how the dice even out etc. Instead I looked at the odds and how to use the probabilities to my advantage. My game has stepped up a whole lot since then, here is some of the reasons how:

1. Attack over Defence: You have 20 defending, against 20 attacking. A misconception in this scenario is your safe, you couldn't possibly lose, afterall defence is better than attack right? WRONG. Whilst the attack versus defence dice rolling the same values will favour the defender, the attack dice have three and not two. Soon as I realised that I dont need 40 to conquer 20 armies my game raised a level. So if you can attack without compromising your game, do so. Suck it pacifist hippies!

2. First round attacks (6v3) are doomed: It sucks, 6v3, and you lose 2 armies straight off. The misconception here is that 6v3 is doomed and you should never do it, but the fact is you still have as good a chance as point number one. The difference is that you have only 1 and a half chances (ish) to win that battle. The dice in point one get a chance to even out more. Of course there is every chance that they wont; Take this example, 60v30 armies, and you lose 2 straight of the bat. Now I think you can figure out why 6v3 are less advisable, but not dictated by some mythical dice god.

3. The dice are jinxed, I never rolled such odds with dice, you asshole!: I agree, the dice ARE jinxed, just not jinxed any more or less than manually thrown dice. The reason you never thrown such dice manually is because you've never thrown so many 1000's of dice before, as you have done on CC.

4. But I lost a 12v2!!!!!: Haven't we all? One solution is to pray to the almighty dice god and hit auto-attack. The other solution is to figure out how many armies are you willing to lose and hit attack until you either win or lose that amount of armies. I prefer the second option, though since i'm not Spock I have the human tendancy to go for the first one now and again.

MG, prays to the dice lord, despite all his anti-dice lord rhetoric.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 5:50 am
by Guidocks
very interesting post . . .
it has made me realise some things as well

thanks for that :)

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:58 am
by tahitiwahini
Good points MG. Thanks.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 7:20 am
by Aries
ya thx mg

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 8:41 am
by dividedbyzero
Suck it pacifist hippies!


Damn it. Now I've got coffee in my sinuses. :)

dbz

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 11:25 am
by Coleman
I win a lot of 4vs3s, you are making this attacking is better public knowledge... I'm not pleased. Could we have a mod lock and delete this? :P

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:26 pm
by detlef
Coleman wrote:I win a lot of 4vs3s, you are making this attacking is better public knowledge... I'm not pleased. Could we have a mod lock and delete this? :P
If you win more than you lose, consider yourself lucky because you shouldn't. Mind you, the odds aren't horrible but they're not in your favor.

Frankly, I hope everyone starts attacking 4 v3 'cause that means I'll win more games. Basically, that will make me Vegas and you guys the poor saps who think they've got Vegas figured out.

If there is much to gain in taking a country 4 v3, (busting up a profitable bonus, taking the last of a continent provided that you have linked countries that you can fortify with, etc.) then the fact that the odds are slightly against you shouldn't stop you.

However, doing so "a lot" is about as smart as playing craps "a lot".

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:30 pm
by Coleman
detlef wrote:
Coleman wrote:I win a lot of 4vs3s, you are making this attacking is better public knowledge... I'm not pleased. Could we have a mod lock and delete this? :P
If you win more than you lose, consider yourself lucky because you shouldn't. Mind you, the odds aren't horrible but they're not in your favor.

Frankly, I hope everyone starts attacking 4 v3 'cause that means I'll win more games. Basically, that will make me Vegas and you guys the poor saps who think they've got Vegas figured out.

If there is much to gain in taking a country 4 v3, (busting up a profitable bonus, taking the last of a continent provided that you have linked countries that you can fortify with, etc.) then the fact that the odds are slightly against you shouldn't stop you.

However, doing so "a lot" is about as smart as playing craps "a lot".


I was hoping to corrupt people, is it crap on Coleman day? :lol:

I guess I'll just go back to hoping all the really bad players don't read the forums anyway.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:36 pm
by detlef
Coleman wrote:
detlef wrote:
Coleman wrote:I win a lot of 4vs3s, you are making this attacking is better public knowledge... I'm not pleased. Could we have a mod lock and delete this? :P
If you win more than you lose, consider yourself lucky because you shouldn't. Mind you, the odds aren't horrible but they're not in your favor.

Frankly, I hope everyone starts attacking 4 v3 'cause that means I'll win more games. Basically, that will make me Vegas and you guys the poor saps who think they've got Vegas figured out.

If there is much to gain in taking a country 4 v3, (busting up a profitable bonus, taking the last of a continent provided that you have linked countries that you can fortify with, etc.) then the fact that the odds are slightly against you shouldn't stop you.

However, doing so "a lot" is about as smart as playing craps "a lot".


I was hoping to corrupt people, is it crap on Coleman day? :lol:

I guess I'll just go back to hoping all the really bad players don't read the forums anyway.


Sorry, my bad. I must not have any sense of humor.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:41 pm
by Coleman
detlef wrote:Sorry, my bad. I must not have any sense of humor.


Nah, you're just a good person. (Or a lion in sheep's skin, regardless...)

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 1:50 pm
by detlef
Coleman wrote:
detlef wrote:Sorry, my bad. I must not have any sense of humor.


Nah, you're just a good person.

I don't know where you got that information, but I'd find better sources if I was you.

PostPosted: Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:20 pm
by tahitiwahini
Coleman wrote:I win a lot of 4vs3s, you are making this attacking is better public knowledge... I'm not pleased. Could we have a mod lock and delete this? :P


Just for the record, odds of attacker conquering a country with a 4 v 3: 47%.

You'll have to resort to some of the other schemes that separate players from their armies. :wink: :wink: