Conquer Club

What are the odds of this happening?

Game 8592623

CC odds. About 5 to 1.

My calculations put it at about 0.000125 %

(1/Nu)*3

Nu-Number of territories (19)

I could be wrong though, Im not a huge stats guy, its just what I think.

jigger1986 wrote:My calculations put it at about 0.000125 %

(1/Nu)*3

Nu-Number of territories (19)

I could be wrong though, Im not a huge stats guy, its just what I think.

But your calculations are based on that he had a 3 card setter, but you would also have to include the odds of getting a 3 setter and all of them being blue. Also, there's a couple more, but as JefJef said, the odds off that in CC aren't that bad.

I count 19 territories on this map. Assume the cards are randomly distributed so that the probability of getting any territory is the same, i.e. 1/19. Then the question is simply, what are the chances of getting a specific territory in a set of three cards. If you only had one card, the chances would be 1/19. If you have three, the chance that one of them is the given territory is 3/19. That's about 16%.

Also that blue had those exact same terits and it was round 4.

L M S wrote:also that blue had those same terits only and it was round 4.

That's impossible to analyze; we can't assign probabilities to how the game played out, because that's based on attacking choices of each player, which are not random and are not easily predictable.

lol, spoken like a true math guy.

The point is that the odds of that happening are crazy.

jigger1986 wrote:My calculations put it at about 0.000125 %

(1/Nu)*3

Nu-Number of territories (19)

I could be wrong though, Im not a huge stats guy, its just what I think.

You're saying 3 divided by 19 is 0.00000125?


You should check your calculations...

Army of GOD wrote:

jigger1986 wrote:My calculations put it at about 0.000125 %

(1/Nu)*3

Nu-Number of territories (19)

I could be wrong though, Im not a huge stats guy, its just what I think.

You're saying 3 divided by 19 is 0.00000125?


You should check your calculations...

No, he's saying 1 divided by 19 then multiplied by 3.

That's equivalent to 3/19...

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F19*3

No I was saying 1 divided by 19, then cubed.
But as someone (like 5 seconds later) there are other variables I left out initially.

Haha ohhh, ok. Do you use the * for exponents, or was that just a typo?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeX69TOEw6Y (skip to 0:53)


By the way, are you guys taking into account the fact that you can't get the same card (territory) twice?

Chance would be chance of getting those 3 territories: 3*2*1/19*18*17 times the chance of getting a set: 1/3.
That makes it 0.0344 %
Small, but way larger than the chance of winning the lottery.

sherkaner wrote:Chance would be chance of getting those 3 territories: 3*2*1/19*18*17 times the chance of getting a set: 1/3.
That makes it 0.0344 %
Small, but way larger than the chance of winning the lottery.

There's no point in analyzing the chances of getting that particular set, because at that point where do you draw the line? Do you take into account the fact that LMS was wearing his lucky socks that day?

28% nuff said

Metsfanmax wrote:

sherkaner wrote:Chance would be chance of getting those 3 territories: 3*2*1/19*18*17 times the chance of getting a set: 1/3.
That makes it 0.0344 %
Small, but way larger than the chance of winning the lottery.

There's no point in analyzing the chances of getting that particular set, because at that point where do you draw the line? Do you take into account the fact that LMS was wearing his lucky socks that day?

But did you know that at the time I was ONLY wearing my lucky socks?