Conquer Club

Posted: **Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:24 pm**

I am conducting a series of strategy quizzes. Player(s) who posts the best answer or answers, according to my judgment, during the next 24 hours will be deemed "winner". If you want to win, you'll need a good explanation / explain the results of your calculations. I'll keep track of "winners" over time.

Note: if your answer is correct but your explanation incomplete, someone else may come along, building off your answer with a more complete explanation. They will be deemed winner, not you.

1. You are playing a no spoils, quads game, and so far, everybody is still alive. You have a weak opponent but your teammate is even weaker. On your turn you can choose to:

Attempt to defeat the weaker opponent with 64% chance, but then your partner will die at 80% on subsequent turn
Attempt to defend your partner, your opponent will live at 100% chance, but your partner will die at 40% chance next turn

What do you do and why?

Remember, if you want to win, you'll need a good explanation / explain the results of your calculations.

Posted: **Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:42 pm**

I eliminate my partner, double cash the spoils that are at 30 and 35, and sweep the board.

Attack - attack - attack. 64% beats 40% every time. If my attack is succesfull then I fort what I can to my pard so he has an 80% to survive, unless it's his turn after opponent elimination, then he has 100% survival rate.

Are you sure you included all the ingredients in your soup?

Posted: **Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:17 pm**

Scenario 1 - Attempt to defeat the weaker opponent with 64% chance, but then your partner will die at 80% on subsequent turn

Chance you kill the enemy and the enemy does not kill your partner - 64% x 20% = 12.8% - good outcome
Chance both enemy and partner die - 64% x 80% = 51,2% - neutral outcome
Chance both enemy and partner live - 36% x 20% = 7.2% - neutral outcome
Chance you fail to kill the enemy and he kills your partner = 28.8% - bad outcome

Scenario 1 results:
12.8% good
58.4% neutral
28.8% bad

Scenario 2 - Attempt to defend your partner, your opponent will live at 100% chance, but your partner will die at 40% chance next turn

Chance both enemy and partner live - 100% x 60% = 60% - neutral outcome
Chance you fail to kill the enemy and he kills your partner = 40% - bad outcome

Scenario 2 results:
0% good
60% neutral
40% bad

Scenario 1 is considerably better than Scenario 2.

Posted: **Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:25 pm**

Without editing my own post, the 28.8% can be reached by multiplying 36% x 80% or by subtracting the previous odds from the total (100% - 12.8% - 51.2% - 7.2%).

I also considered my weak opponent had one or more partners himself. If he was alone, then Scenario 1 would get even better, with 64% good outcome, 7.2% neutral outcome and 28.8% bad outcome.

Posted: **Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:34 pm**

If I would have seen this before Rodion, I would have said what he said. I promise.

-rd

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:18 am**

We have a winner! Congratulations, Rodion!

So maybe you are the strategic mastermind behind KORT's successes....

jefjef wrote:Are you sure you included all the ingredients in your soup?

Thanks for that reminder... It's supposed to be no spoils quads and everybody is still alive. Added details to original post. Since spoils were not specifically mentioned, you should have assumed no spoils, tsk tsk.

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 1:16 am**

FarangDemon wrote:We have a winner! Congratulations, Rodion!

So maybe you are the strategic mastermind behind KORT's successes....

jefjef wrote:Are you sure you included all the ingredients in your soup?

Thanks for that reminder... It's supposed to be no spoils quads and everybody is still alive. Added details to original post. Since spoils were not specifically mentioned, you should have assumed no spoils, tsk tsk.

My real answer was no spoils... tsk tsk.

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 10:51 am**

FarangDemon wrote:We have a winner! Congratulations, Rodion!

So maybe you are the strategic mastermind behind KORT's successes....

Our true masterminds are busy winning real games. :lol:

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:51 am**

FarangDemon wrote:1. You are playing a no spoils, quads game, and so far, everybody is still alive. You have a weak opponent but your teammate is even weaker. On your turn you can choose to:

Attempt to defeat the weaker opponent with 64% chance, but then your partner will die at 80% on subsequent turn
Attempt to defend your partner, your opponent will live at 100% chance, but your partner will die at 40% chance next turn

What do you do and why?

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:44 pm**

Pretty cool idea man. I'll submit for the next one.

Maybe a little bit to abstract? And I mean that in a positive way. Most people cant come to the point where they have to make this tradeoff so to speak.

Posted: **Fri Feb 04, 2011 1:48 pm**

There are some more potential issues with such a clear cut answer. Is it classic gameplay, are there bonuses to be had that could somehow compensate for the loss of one of the team members, and is it a team member you really like? In my games, usually we encourage the enemy to target our team member that we like the least. That way if he is eliminated it's no big deal.

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2011 2:36 pm**

Leave my partner and take out the opponent. Even if I don't take out the opponent, I can get one of my other teammates to finish him off. Don't EVER risk your own troops for you weak opponents.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:07 am**

JelleR wrote:Pretty cool idea man. I'll submit for the next one.

Maybe a little bit to abstract? And I mean that in a positive way. Most people cant come to the point where they have to make this tradeoff so to speak.

We had this decision to make in Game 8372059.

danryan wrote:There are some more potential issues with such a clear cut answer. Is it classic gameplay, are there bonuses to be had that could somehow compensate for the loss of one of the team members, and is it a team member you really like?

I didn't mention bonuses, so you must assume there are no bonuses that could compensate for the loss. Good point, but tsk tsk to you as well.

danryan wrote:In my games, usually we encourage the enemy to target our team member that we like the least. That way if he is eliminated it's no big deal.

Yes sometimes that could help.

And lol at MF! I remember when I watched that movie, the "Shoot the hostage" thing made sense to me. But now it seems ridiculous. Just shoot Dennis Hopper's character in the head instead. It is point blank range - if Dennis Hopper can see you, that means you can shoot his eyeball.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:23 pm**

danryan wrote:There are some more potential issues with such a clear cut answer. Is it classic gameplay, are there bonuses to be had that could somehow compensate for the loss of one of the team members, and is it a team member you really like? In my games, usually we encourage the enemy to target our team member that we like the least. That way if he is eliminated it's no big deal.

i have tried that in a few games. it turns out that person is invinciable.... truely... we dump all our troops on our designated game leader. our 'hated' guy does so too, but keeps one for himself. and promtly keeps winning.... and winning and winning...
sigh

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