Conquer Club

10 vs 3........ 10 lost

I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

No, there is nothing wrong. Just dumb luck is all. That's why I like Risk. You can have 50 and he could have one and you could still lose.

the good or bad rolls can tend to clump, but auto attack can be like that, you just have to be careful when you use it

pancakemix wrote:No, there is nothing wrong. Just dumb luck is all. That's why I like Risk. You can have 50 and he could have one and you could still lose.

thats why i hate risk, all the planning in the world and you can still get screwed over

NO, it wasn't autoattack...

hitting lows 4 times in a row....... there has to be something wrong with the randomizer...

and not only did I lose the 10 armies vs 3 but then I lost every other army on the same turn.......... so that would be +4 dice throws and losing every time...

god no...defender wins ties....four times in a row is nothing....and there are many, many many dice thrown on here at one time, so you arent necessarily getting them in a row

ie the gererator could be giving you every other one...or every third roll or every fourth etc, which would follow that they were random to begin with, but you got the losses

believe me...four losses in a row is nothing...50 can attack 10 and lose none or lose 40....happens all the time

and like i say, they can tend to clump, so hold if youre losing...but you never know when its going to go back...ive lost huge, and then won huge on the same turn...its the ties that throw off your instinct of how they should react

These constant threads highlight a problem.

not necessarily...i played on another site, and the dice were identical....

and ive played a lot, you just have to get used to seeing how they work

and many have posted similar stories about real live dice

they key is getting used to how they work and play accordingly

ive thrown over 70000 dice....they all average out eventually...you just have to be careful

gerry22 wrote:These constant threads highlight a problem.

What problem?

1. The dice really are bad and these threads are proof.

2. Newbs are idiots.

3. No one reads the FAQ/understands them.

4. Many people have only a dim grasp of dispersion, central tendency and long term dice probabilities.

5. It's legal for many of these posters to step foot in casinos?

Maybe you can post the algorithm for public review. Or run it 100000 times and post the results.

I'm sure, however, that the dice are fine. People just remember when they have bad luck. They don't remember all the times when they get great luck. Besides, if the dice are bad, they're bad for EVERYONE. Conquer club isn't rigged against just you. There is no conspiracy to make you lose your online risk games.

hobojjr wrote:I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

it's called hacking. you will come to find that most of the people here do that a lot.

The Collection wrote:

hobojjr wrote:I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

it's called hacking. you will come to find that most of the people here do that a lot.

its not funny anymore dude you had your 15 seconds...time to come up with something new

im still angry about the hacking

The Collection wrote:

hobojjr wrote:I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

it's called hacking. you will come to find that most of the people here do that a lot.

Do you have any proof or significant evidance, or are you just throwing out random accusations?

mach wrote:

The Collection wrote:

hobojjr wrote:I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

it's called hacking. you will come to find that most of the people here do that a lot.

Do you have any proof or significant evidance, or are you just throwing out random accusations?

yes I do.

Ok, I believe you then.

Just the same way a jury believes the prosecution when they say they have indisputable evidence that the defendant killed the victim but refuses to show it in court.

Kugelblitz22 wrote:

gerry22 wrote:These constant threads highlight a problem.

What problem?

1. The dice really are bad and these threads are proof.

2. Newbs are idiots.

3. No one reads the FAQ/understands them.

4. Many people have only a dim grasp of dispersion, central tendency and long term dice probabilities.

5. It's legal for many of these posters to step foot in casinos?

There is a difference between a real die and a computer generated...
And I am not saying there they out to get me... just to perhaps look at their algorithm.... people do make mistakes.

hobojjr wrote:

Kugelblitz22 wrote:

gerry22 wrote:These constant threads highlight a problem.

What problem?

1. The dice really are bad and these threads are proof.

2. Newbs are idiots.

3. No one reads the FAQ/understands them.

4. Many people have only a dim grasp of dispersion, central tendency and long term dice probabilities.

5. It's legal for many of these posters to step foot in casinos?

There is a difference between a real die and a computer generated...
And I am not saying there they out to get me... just to perhaps look at their algorithm.... people do make mistakes.

Am I wrong? Flame me if so. I don't know tons about this. But I constantly hear people talk about streaky dice (what are they, windows washed with the competitors product?) and how unreliable they are, but no one can really give a meaningfull, in depth explanation for why that is the case. What I hear repeated ad nauseum is well it's a man made program, it can never be truly random, algorithms, blah, blah, blah.

Am I wrong?

Probably need to get some of the more mathematically inclined folks in here to talk about it, but unless my dice analyzer stats are wrong, over long periods, it really works.

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s 7636 / 46987 (16.25%) 4165 / 24502 (17%)
2s 7760 / 46987 (16.52%) 4029 / 24502 (16.44%)
3s 7853 / 46987 (16.71%) 4132 / 24502 (16.86%)
4s 7799 / 46987 (16.6%) 4137 / 24502 (16.88%)
5s 7891 / 46987 (16.79%) 4106 / 24502 (16.76%)
6s 8048 / 46987 (17.13%) 3933 / 24502 (16.05%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 2822/2451/1972 (38.95/33.83/27.22%) (37.17%/33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 4736 / 2437 (66.03% / 33.97%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 109/133/180 (25.83%/31.52%/42.65%) (22.76%/32.41%/44.83%)
2v1 593 / 428 (58.08% / 41.92%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 29 / 98 (22.83% / 77.17%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 311 / 409 (43.19% / 56.81%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

Overall stats
Attacker threw 46987 dice.
Defender threw 24502 dice.
Wins / Ties / Loses 8600 / 2584 / 5524

In fact, I'm rolling more 6s on average than anything else.

The dice do indeed go streaky. We've all had turns where we can't win and where we can't seem to lose. But over time, they seem to work out just fine.

dbz

dividedbyzero wrote:
The dice do indeed go streaky.
dbz

Oh yeah, no arguement there, my thought is, so do dice you throw out of your hand.

The Collection wrote:

mach wrote:

The Collection wrote:

hobojjr wrote:I think there is a problem with your algorithm or something......

it's called hacking. you will come to find that most of the people here do that a lot.

Do you have any proof or significant evidance, or are you just throwing out random accusations?

yes I do.

Come on then, show it! Prove your theory to us skeptics, so that we may believe you, and hail your greatness.

Until then, you're a sore, whiny loser in the minds of all who read this thread.

Or perhaps, The Collection is making a veiled threat... He says we'll find out most people here engage in hacking. Well if one believes that, one would then attempt to hack the system themselves, if for no other reason than to level the playing field. I suggest that the moderators keep a close eye on The Collection, as he may be one of the 'many' hackers on this site

attacking 10 vs. 3 and losing happens with probability 3.3%, approximately (without auto attack), and with probability 5.8% auto attacking. While obviously not high, it is not an unimaginable event.... I'd say it even happens a lot of times per day.... most people here should already have endured more unlikely events....

This is what Conquer Club does, except many more times and more numbers per time.