Conquer Club

I have just had two games where I got really bad dice recently.

I just played a turn in a game where I had 20 troops against 5. I had 6 successive double losses (3 dice against two) and it got down to 8 vs 5 I gave up Game 7218392. (404 vs 405)

Another game Game 7310105 I rolled 10 times with 3 dice against 2 and 8 of them resulted in a double loss and two in a 1 army lost on both sides. I never even got to take out a territory.

I feel so gypped over the games I played today that I would like to hear your worst dice stories to make me feel better, all in good fun.

how about 50-5 to 4-3... it actually happened.

Puts mine to shame lol. Did you still win?

nope. it was classic escalating. i got taken by the cards wot were put down next

Wow I found this dice odds calculator

viewtopic.php?f=527&t=83451&start=0

I wonder if there are any other grease money scripts that record your dice? Anyone?

your 50 to 5

99.99999998253832% chance you would win. Slightly less than 2 in 10 billion chance that you would lose. That is statistically significant. There have only been 7.3 million conquer club games. The situation you describe means you're such an outlier that if I was a statistician I would look more closely either at your number or at the random algorithm...

My 20 to 5 has a believable 99.85131971102206% chance I would win. So something like 1 and a half times out of a thousand I would lose. Of course I didn't fully attack.

I am using the tool right?

anyone else with really bad dice stories I would love to calculate more possibilities.

duce you write there are 7 million cc games. Is take every throw of the dice as well? because its 99% aka 2 in 10 billion chance per dice throw, and with many many millions of dice throws each hour/day, we are way, way past the 10 billion.

lets ask you this, if the dice were not random, dont you think this could not have happened?

Well lets think here

7 million games x 1000 rolls per game average (total guess) = 7 billion dice rolls

Now lets look at rolls in a row to go from 50 troops to 8 troops usually 2 troops die per turn so that would be 21 rolls

7 billion / 21 =333 million times that 21 dice have been rolled sequentially

Chance according to the tool of 50 to 5 0.9999999998253832

(0.9999999998253832)^333333333 according to google = 0.943455964 means that there is a 94 percent chance out of 7 billion dice rolls you will never have a sequence of 50 to 5 lose, roughly.

Of course I am just an engineering major, where are the math majors?

They worked on the Dice Analyzer Tool/Enhancement.


--Andy

I attacked 1,000,000,000v1 and I won with 3 troops left.

I was thinking about the 50 to 5 thing again. I realized my 94% would be too high because someone could role "unsequentially" meaning that the last 10 rolls of the previous set of 21 and the first 10 rolls of the current set of 21 could still produce the 20 successive double losses.

So just to establish the bounds of this the actually probability of this happening *once* would be between

(1-0.9999999998253832^7 billion) (much too high) and (1-0.9999999998253832^333 million) (too low)

or between

81% and 6% (of 50 to 5 loss happening once or more times)

Remember this is the odds for this happening once or more times in all of CC's history... interesting. Anyone else with bad dice stories?

AndyDufresne wrote:They worked on the Dice Analyzer Tool/Enhancement.


--Andy

What is the "Dice Analyzer Tool/Enhancement?"

Cyberdaniel originally created the Dice Analyzer Tool. Similarly, Chipv created the Dice Streaks Tool.


--Andy

Believe i lost a 72 vs 4, or something close to that. Its almost more of a memorable game when something that unbelievable happens. Have had several 30+ vs single digit losses, though only got that first example once that i remember...

Damn, I just signed in to see if the dice problem had been fixed. Oh well.

72 v 4
Gold knight

The chances of you winning are winning were literally 1 pentillion (a one with 15 zeros after it) to one.

# Surviving Attackers Exactly This # Survive Minimum This # Survive
2 2.220446049250313e-16 1
3 0 0.9999999999999998
4 0 0.9999999999999998
5 2.220446049250313e-16 0.9999999999999998



Had you defeated someone right before?

I noticed I get my worst dice after defeating someone, especially in non escalating games. I now have learned to never defeat someone until after I have made all my other attacks

I began by first doing several single assaults, and lost about 10 straight, so said screw it and tried auto. Went to 3v1, and my jaw dropped. Tried the last two attacks and lost...

Its wierd, if i try sporadic clicking of the assault it usually does better, though im pretty sure its just some sort of superstition...

2 years ago in game Game 3258467 2008-09-13 22:35:13 - murphy16: what the f*ck??? 15v15 and hje comes out with 9, but when i do 50+ v 6 and i come out with 13????

666

AAFitz wrote:666

I wonder what the odds are of SATAN rolling a fitz..

Once upon a time I was sitting for someone and had 500+ vs roughly 350 and lost.

I had an opponent take a 51 vs my 60 and win with 49 left!!!!!!

The next turn I lost 18vs2.

Lots of crazy things like this happen but thats the worse experience I've encountered here so far.

Nearly every roll. Too many to count. I have had 6 and even 8 vs 2 one turn after another, game after game, and I will finally take out the two and only able to advance one. And that's if I'm lucky.

The fluffy dice hanging from my rearview mirror....

Seems that the "adjusted" dice are worse in every way...the previous ones were bad...but these just plain suck ! 20-3 and I lose 9 ???? 7-1 odds in my favor...and those damned sorry ass excuses for "realistic & random " so-called "dice" did that ??? Bullshit !

Whomever came up with the "new" program deserves to have a 2x4 upside his head , his oompah loompahs removed so he doesn't contaminate the rest of the planet, and let's see all the CC "gods" be on the losing end of these crappy "dice"...bet that doesn't happen !

Smells like CC has become rigged ! This keeps up, you can bet anybody that has a premium account will switch to freemium, or just plain call and end to being involved in a scam !

FIX THE DAMNED DICE TO BE FAIR...OR NO MORE PREMIUM MEMBERSHIPS ! If CC can't be honest, screw it !

My worst was 20vs1 and not taking the 1. A soviet union quads map, thankfully the game was already decided in my teams favour. Still was flabbergasted.

wow cc has been shafting me

I have the dice analyzer tool and here are my 3 v 2 stats

(win 2 1,1 lose 2)
29 / 23 / 44
My stats
(30.21% / 23.96% / 45.83%)
Fair Dice Probabilities
(37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)

A lot of them came from a 30 vs 3 auto assault in which I won with 3 left.