Conquer Club

Yesterday, I lost a 14 on 2. The day before, I lost a 21 on 5. My rolls had been like that for more or less a week.

Today, however, I am winning 6 on 7s and 2 on 4s.

Law of averages, I guess. Just wondering if anyone else had been going through the same thing and noticed a change today.

Tip, if you don't attack 2 on 4, (and win) then you wont lose 14 on 2.

strangely enough yes. worst dice ive ever had for the last 2 weeks then yesterday and today.. back to average possibly slightly better than

zarvinny wrote:Tip, if you don't attack 2 on 4, (and win) then you wont lose 14 on 2.

Tip. On truly random dice, what I did on my last roll has no influence whatsoever on my next roll. Are you one of those people who also believes that a slot machine that paid off earlier today won't pay off again for a while?

complete opposite for me. Today was the worst day i have ever had with the dice. In every game my dice seem to be really bad. This is going to leave a huge dent in my points.

Sargentgeneral wrote:complete opposite for me. Today was the worst day i have ever had with the dice. In every game my dice seem to be really bad. This is going to leave a huge dent in my points.

I feel for you, man. The last few days... man... there were moments I wanted to put my fist through the laptop screen. Luckily, I was able to remind myself what eddymush told me--it's just a game.

yes i think my dice improved today, and they seem to have really been bad for the last week or two... I mean going to attack with say a 14 to 3 and it ending up 3 to 1

Yesterday I attacked 13 vs 18 and won with 10 left. I was pretty happy.

My worst day was a few weeks ago. I lost 24 - 1
Then the same day i lost 9 -1, then next turn i lost 6-1, and i only made one kill in 4 turns. Needless to say i lost pretty quickly.
I almost cried that day .... almost!

I was attacked by KoE_fjanet in a game this morning. She had 16 versus my 9. She lost 15, I lost 3.

I thought that was pretty weird... not that I'm complaining. The game is well in hand now.

Dariune wrote:My worst day was a few weeks ago. I lost 24 - 1

You are a taking fishing stories too far.

And i mean really...

The odds of that happening are:
20.298.494.347 to 1


That is 20.3 BILLION to 1.

Come on!!!

I lost 11 to 1 once(this is true) and i was sooooo mad.

Well regardless of the odds thats what happened, though this is from memory im pretty sure it was 24 - 1. Im not lying.

Thiose odds at least make me feel i would have been justified if i had cried though

Ouch, i just lost 25 - 7 as well! Guess i should take my loaded dice back to the shops for a refund .

Dlakavi wrote:

Dariune wrote:My worst day was a few weeks ago. I lost 24 - 1

You are a taking fishing stories too far.

And i mean really...

The odds of that happening are:
20.298.494.347 to 1


That is 20.3 BILLION to 1.

Come on!!!

I lost 11 to 1 once(this is true) and i was sooooo mad.

I think that's the point--that there has been something weird with the dice for a couple weeks that make them not conform to actual averages. Ever since whatever fix made Greasemonkey act retarded, I'd been having problems. Until yesterday.

Dlakavi wrote:

Dariune wrote:My worst day was a few weeks ago. I lost 24 - 1

You are a taking fishing stories too far.

And i mean really...

The odds of that happening are:
20.298.494.347 to 1


That is 20.3 BILLION to 1.

Come on!!!

I lost 11 to 1 once(this is true) and i was sooooo mad.

Although many people on this forum love to exaggerate (the IQ thread springs to mind), and although I love to take the p*ss out of Dariune IRL, I can vouch for him on this one. And he really was NOT a happy bunny (quite rightly too)

losing 24 vs 1 is a chance of about 15500 to 1

Well i didnt stop to think about what the chance was. Mostly i was thinking how much it sucked!!!

Lone.prophet wrote:losing 24 vs 1 is a chance of about 15500 to 1

to others who doubt this happened, the fact that there is a chance shows that it CAN happen.

The odds of winning the lottery are millions to 1, but still people do win.


and thanks to Lone.prophet for shortening the odds somewhat!

... The biggest loss I've ever seen was 12 vs 1, and I'm sure the statistical odds of that happening are on par with getting struck by lighting 12 times... and each time on Christmas, at precisely 3:14 am.

... But the dice are not truly random, are they? It's a complicated alogrithm (sp?), and mathematics, by its very nature, is not random.

... But that said, they work well enough for me. And anybody rolling 2's vs 4's is insane anyway, so what does it really matter?

Lone.prophet wrote:losing 24 vs 1 is a chance of about 15500 to 1

You can't do math, can you?

Let me show you(Dexter would say)

You have 24 armies.
You attack with 3 dice 21 times.

Odds of losing 21 times in a row are:

1 in 6774840405.

Than you throw 2vs 1, chance of losing is 1 in 2.38

Then you throw 1 vs 1, chance of losing is 1 in 1.72

So the odds of losing 24 vs 1 are 6774840405 * 2.38 * 1.72=27.733.486.681

you said it was 1 in 15500.

So, to make you understand more, it is 3000 times more likely to win a lottery than lose a 24 vs 1 dice.

So, yeah, i doubt it

Nobunaga wrote:... And anybody rolling 2's vs 4's is insane anyway, so what does it really matter?

totally agree with that one!

my dice were just average. lost pretty much every attack but won a couple narrowly. nothing strange about that...

I have to admit that today my dice are hot too.......

my dice suck

Absolutely not. I can almost anticipate losing 9/10 times playing. The defending dice are fixed. I've never seen so many sixes on defending dice.

If the 24 v 1 loss is confirmed then we need to do something about the dice generator. Can you imagine losing a 24 v 1 in a real life game of risk? It just would never happen.

Conquer Club right now has played about 200,000 games. Lets assume that on average, there is a 24 v 1 attack 100 times in every game (the real number is probably much lower). That would mean that we would need to reach 200,000,000 games before another person loses a 24 v 1 (since its a 1 out of 20 billion chance. And assuming we can play about 200,000 games per year, it would take another 1000 years before anyone else loses a 24 v 1.

Now are we really fortunate enough to be the only people to be witnessing this type of rolling disaster in this millennium? Or maybe there is something a little fishy about the random dice generator?