Round Recap
Green fired off their cards to come back from the brink and took Australia.
Turns out Blue didn't have a card set after-all. Blue appears to have lost 1 unit in retaking Brazil only to have Pink, who had 5 cards, hammer the 3 units left defending Venezuela. I feel Blue made a mistake. Had they taken a 1 unit territory from Pink then reinforced on Venezuela, Pink would have had a reason to simply defend N.America allowing Blue to use their cards to ensure control of S.America.
Yellow appears to have tried eliminating Teal.. Failing to eliminate 1 unit. Tough break. Underscores the necessity of having sufficient units to finish the job before making an attempt. Yellow was attempting to eliminate 9 units with 11 where they fell short in China->Siam. An odds calculator shows a 65% chance of success. Risky but possible. I can't see what cards Yellow has, but they may have been in a better position waiting a round.
Teal, left without many options, moves up into Ural trying to get away from Australia to rebuild.
Pink fires off their cards and takes control of N.America then breaks Blue's tentative hold on S.America. Pink had the opportunity to eliminate Teal from Japan. Seems to have responded to the threat to N.America I create from N.Africa.
First Deployment
Teal is done. Yellow and Blue are also exposed. Depending on which cards are held I may be able to eliminate Blue as well, which should let me finish Yellow. I deploy 6 on Irkutsk and take Mongolia, China, Siam, and Ural. Teal is eliminated. I have 5 cards. The path to Yakutsk is open through Siberia.
Second Deployment
I have 2 Green Cards, 3 Blue. I turn in a Blue set of Ural, S.Europe, and E.Africa. I got lucky.
Again using the odds calculator I have an 86% chance to take Yakutsk with my 8 units on Ural. With 4 units on S.Europe and 6 on N.Africa with 8 to deploy eliminating Blue looks to be highly probable. I deploy 3 on S.Europe for 7 units with which to push to Iceland. The remaining 5 go to N.Africa. I go after Yakutsk first. Taking Yakutsk is my qualifier. If that attack goes properly I'm comfortable pursuing the rest of Blue. If I fail there my objective will change to trying to break N.America.
Blue is eliminated.
(In retrospect I probably should have deployed 1 additional unit on Ural however to bring the probable success rate greater than 90%. At the time I did not know I'd be taking Yakutsk on a lucky roll with 2 units left on Siberia though. At the end of the day, it worked.)
Third Deployment
Blue's 5 cards give me a Green set. I hold Brazil and Mongolia in this set. These 6 units are deployed 3 on Irkutsk and 3 on E.Africa. As Yellow is spread out in a series of 1 unit territories I don't expect much trouble collecting. Kamchatka is taken easily. My 8 in E.Africa flow through Yellow, only sticking on Scandinavia. I hold the 3 in Iceland in reserve to finish Yellow if needed.
Yellow is eliminated.
Fourth Deployment
Two RGB sets are turned in. At this point I believe the game is won. I should be able to maintain more units coming in per turn than Pink and Green combined. Cards are the only risk if both players are left long enough to both unleash sets. I want to eliminate one or the other to cut down on units and cards entering the game per turn then wear down the remaining party. I deem Pink to be the bigger threat due to 3 cards in their control. I conveniently have 8 units ready to go on Brazil, so deploy my 20 units there. I eliminate as much as possible in N.America.
Fortification
I'm a bit hasty in my fortifications. (It's Sunday. Needed to cook some grub then was going hiking for the day.) I deploy in a manner intended to grind down Pink and Green. I'm trying to minimize territories taken with 3v1 dice rolls, with a little extra emphasis on key junctions. I overlook S.Europe leaving it exposed. I also fail to give full consideration of how many units Green could bring from India. I should have deployed 1 on N.Africa and Brazil as well, from Kamchatka and Ukraine.
In retrospect, I also likely would have been better served leaving a larger force on the border with Pink in order to expedite their elimination.
My strategy for unit income is switching between holding continents and holding overall territory. At this point I'm willing to sacrifice continents to maximize territory held. I feel more than confident with my position. I don't need continents to win. That isn't to say I'm giving them up, but I don't think any of my opponents can put forth a sustained effort on all of them.
. Looks like this one is pretty much over.
