The Improbable Always Wins....WTF?

[Bruceswar]

my last turn

10vs2 > 2vs2
5vs5 > 3vs5
4vs2 > 2vs2

edit: next two turns finished with 0-6

prolly gonna be one of those days I was talking about..

oh and there turns are in 1on1 tourney games, so I almost fucked in this round..

f*ck ur dice CC!

I agree, f*ck the dice and f*ck the system. An improvement is not only needed it necessary to deliver the highest possibly quality of gameplay.

And what do you suggest? Any ideas so the rest of us can be clued into magic dice fix?

[MNDuke]

Before we can get to solutions, there first has to be general acceptance that there is indeed something wrong with the dice or they aren't as good as they should be. Only then can a meaningful discussion be had on how to fix things.

[nikola_milicki]

Before we can get to solutions, there first has to be general acceptance that there is indeed something wrong with the dice or they aren't as good as they should be. Only then can a meaningful discussion be had on how to fix things.

plus we aint paying premium to do somebody's work, and not like I havent payed too much already with frustration caused by dice not that I wouldnt offer an opinion if I was some kinda dice programmer expert like ppl from random.org

[Bruceswar]

Before we can get to solutions, there first has to be general acceptance that there is indeed something wrong with the dice or they aren't as good as they should be. Only then can a meaningful discussion be had on how to fix things.

For the sake of things, lets just assume they are "broken" or "too streaky". How would you fix them?

[natty dread]

It may even out over time, but the problem is that they even out in streaks and these streaks create unbalanced games which results in a loss of strategy and overall gameplay. Please try to follow along in the future and not just randomly interject.

You didn't address any of the points in my post.

You're complaining about "streaks". How would you like the dice to behave then?

Let's define "streaky dice": you get occurences happening that you think "should not happen" as often as they are happening. Still, these occurences even out in the long run. So they are equal to everyone. In other words, you are complaining because you can't reliably predict the outcomes of the dice rolls. You think the winning and losing rolls should be alternating more often, instead of getting lots of winning or losing rolls together.

Well, how would the situation be any better if this were to happen? You'd still get losses and wins. You still couldn't reliably predict the outcomes of the dice rolls. You'd still get occurences, like losing a 10v2.

The only way to make the dice behave predictably, is to make them non-random.

OMG cant fkn believe this arrogant piece of shit retard!!!! Im having the shittiest day and on top of it I have to read more of your crap.. are u actually schooling me u stupid noob!?!?!? did it ever cross ur "mind" that I mightve autoattacked??????? is my strategy flowed cuz I used auto now???? and u must have a memory like a fish that lasts for like 5 seconds (so Ive heard) and dont remember anything what I said here or maybe u just write shit cuz u have nothing better to do.. what Im saying is that I shudnt be having 0-12 with 10vs2,5vs5,4vs2 followed by two turns ending by 0-6, followed by 3-9 in the most important game I have now, followed by other turns in flat games where I couldnt grab a fkn card followed by my opponent killing 2-3 lands in every game of our 5 game round in 1on1 tourney, he was even killing neutrals (!!) and the only game where he didnt kill 2-3 lands is the one where he won 6vs5 and all he was dropping was 3-4, even that wouldnt be unbearable if my dice werent bellow average in all games, then followed by other shitty turns and ALL OF THIS IN 1 AFTERNOON!! I dont even have like 70 active games so that this would only be like 30% of my turns, but only 20.... so u can stick that dice analyzer where sun dont shine cuz NOBODY on this site gives a shit about their losses and wins being normally distributed over 10000 rolls when they get fucked game after game and have no fun what so ever.. I cant be phlegmatic like some ppl are, I hate stupid ridiculous things that shudnt be happening especially if they are happening to me when Im trying to do my fkn best in every game..

just please stop talking to me bcuz after numerous posts u dont even understand what am I trying to say..

Maybe I'll get an answer for this, maybe I'll get another "ur posts r dumbz!!!111"... who knows.

Guess it was the latter, then. Let me know when you're capable of posting something other than incomprehensible rants.

[maasman]

Guys, random dice means streaks will happen. This is basically inherent in random numbers. There will be streaks. If you want gameplay to be more about strategy, then I suggest axis and allies, or if you want extreme, chess. Maybe you haven't dealt with real dice enough, but everything I've heard described here I've seen in real life.
"But this happens way more often than in real life!!!!!" you might say. How many thousands of games have you potentially played here? Quite a few games I bet. In a simple 10 game stretch I could totally see 12v2 losing, even 8v1 isn't all that uncommon. Streaks of 3-5 6's in a row for the defender seems to come up 3 or more times a game in real life that I've seen. You equate these numbers over all the games you've played, even the games you have at one time, and these "uncommon" occurrences become frequent. Keep whining all you want, but these dice are as good as you're going to get if you want random. Now, getting the dice fixed is what it seems like you guys want to do, but that's a completely different argument. Also, I doubt you people are on 100% of the time and see the defenders rolls as well. They could be having bad dice as well for all you know.

Losing 400 points in 10 days? I can think of a couple of scenarios.

1. You've been putting off/delaying your turns in games you think you might lose, while going on a strong clip for games you feel you're going to win. You gain a lot of points winning those games, but eventually the games you think you'll lose will end, only now there's a bunch at one time, bringing your points down drastically.

2. You're playing on maps and settings you may not be comfortable with, increasing your odds of losing.

3. You get pissed because you just had some bad rolls and carry that over to other games, hurting your chances of winning, and creating a cycle of losing ideas trying to recoup where you failed in other games, making you try more and more desperate measures to win.

4. You legitimately had some bad dice for awhile.

I think it would take a combination of a couple of those to accomplish 400 points lost, but really thats only 20 games playing people of equal ranks. That doesn't seem too unreasonable.

Anyways, I think the dice are fine. Yes they can be frustrating, but that comes with the territory. There have been many attacks that I should have won in the past, and many I should have lost, but I accept and just keep playing and trying to have fun.

[Gold Knight]

Before we can get to solutions, there first has to be general acceptance that there is indeed something wrong with the dice or they aren't as good as they should be. Only then can a meaningful discussion be had on how to fix things.

At the same point, if there are no plausible alternatives to compare the current system to, than this isn't going to go anywhere. It'll be a tough sell to Lack or anyone else that the current system needs to be changed when the solution is completely unknown. I'm trying to go about this without being a dick and arguing sides just for the sake of pissing other's off, and really do hope this can be the rare constructive conversation about the dice. Bringing in some different systems would at least shift the argument to something meaningful besides this back-and-forth that isn't going anywhere.

[denominator]

Also, I doubt you people are on 100% of the time and see the defenders rolls as well. They could be having bad dice as well for all you know.

There is a second part to this as well. While this thread hasn't fallen into the trap as much as past threads have, often the complainers bring up the point of "we never see streaks like that in our favour". If you think of the sheer number of dice being rolled daily here, it is entirely understandable why we all see the occasional nasty streak. However, few of us try rolling the 4v10 or 8v30 unless the game is already lost, so while the odds of being successful remain the same, the frequency is lower.

To all the nay-sayers posting "evidence", 3 examples isn't going to cut it. The nature of probability is streakiness. If we minimize the issue to simple odds of flipping a coin, the probability is that on each event there is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. However, we all know that if we sit and flip a coin 100 times, it's unlikely to come up 50 heads and 50 tails. Furthermore, if you were to flip the coin a second hundred times, it's even more unlikely that you'll get the same results as your first run.

It seems to me that you want dice that are predictable, not probable. If we were to go to predictable dice, this game would lose all meaning as each play would have a set strategy that we would all learn and end up in build games every time.

[Woodruff]

It seems to me that you want dice that are predictable, not probable. If we were to go to predictable dice, this game would lose all meaning as each play would have a set strategy that we would all learn and end up in build games every time.

And that's not at all the way dice work anyway, as any serious gambler will tell you.

[nikola_milicki]

It may even out over time, but the problem is that they even out in streaks and these streaks create unbalanced games which results in a loss of strategy and overall gameplay. Please try to follow along in the future and not just randomly interject.

You didn't address any of the points in my post.

You're complaining about "streaks". How would you like the dice to behave then?

Let's define "streaky dice": you get occurences happening that you think "should not happen" as often as they are happening. Still, these occurences even out in the long run. So they are equal to everyone. In other words, you are complaining because you can't reliably predict the outcomes of the dice rolls. You think the winning and losing rolls should be alternating more often, instead of getting lots of winning or losing rolls together.

Well, how would the situation be any better if this were to happen? You'd still get losses and wins. You still couldn't reliably predict the outcomes of the dice rolls. You'd still get occurences, like losing a 10v2.

The only way to make the dice behave predictably, is to make them non-random.

OMG cant fkn believe this arrogant piece of shit retard!!!! Im having the shittiest day and on top of it I have to read more of your crap.. are u actually schooling me u stupid noob!?!?!? did it ever cross ur "mind" that I mightve autoattacked??????? is my strategy flowed cuz I used auto now???? and u must have a memory like a fish that lasts for like 5 seconds (so Ive heard) and dont remember anything what I said here or maybe u just write shit cuz u have nothing better to do.. what Im saying is that I shudnt be having 0-12 with 10vs2,5vs5,4vs2 followed by two turns ending by 0-6, followed by 3-9 in the most important game I have now, followed by other turns in flat games where I couldnt grab a fkn card followed by my opponent killing 2-3 lands in every game of our 5 game round in 1on1 tourney, he was even killing neutrals (!!) and the only game where he didnt kill 2-3 lands is the one where he won 6vs5 and all he was dropping was 3-4, even that wouldnt be unbearable if my dice werent bellow average in all games, then followed by other shitty turns and ALL OF THIS IN 1 AFTERNOON!! I dont even have like 70 active games so that this would only be like 30% of my turns, but only 20.... so u can stick that dice analyzer where sun dont shine cuz NOBODY on this site gives a shit about their losses and wins being normally distributed over 10000 rolls when they get fucked game after game and have no fun what so ever.. I cant be phlegmatic like some ppl are, I hate stupid ridiculous things that shudnt be happening especially if they are happening to me when Im trying to do my fkn best in every game..

just please stop talking to me bcuz after numerous posts u dont even understand what am I trying to say..

Maybe I'll get an answer for this, maybe I'll get another "ur posts r dumbz!!!111"... who knows.

Guess it was the latter, then. Let me know when you're capable of posting something other than incomprehensible rants.

and what points did u have in that dumbass post that MND didnt address to????????????????? maybe the point where u managed to make a complete ass of yourself trying to school me???? biggest fail Ive seen in long time..

u still dont understand what Im trying to tell u and its getting so ridiculous cuz Im kinda repeating it to u all over again.. I gave u a good example of how dice behave too often, and like a frikin parrot u keep repeating "it evens out in the long run bla fkn bla bla...", who cares even if it does when our games last a lot shorter then a long run, how can u possibly think that a day I had yesterday is normal and acceptable?? and ofc we will always get occurrences like 10vs2 loses but getting shit like that through the whole afternoon and see half ur games go down the drain is just plain stupid! Ive had 5-6h games in rl and never ever, not even on the worst day, have I lost as much as here yesterday afternoon..

bruce asked what do we suggest to do about it.. how about change the muthafucker! theres obviously something wrong with it.. we dont expect this to be fixed over night but we dont see anybody doing anything about it either.. 5 years and only once have they tried something new and it sucks even more..

[SirSebstar]

Nikola,
If the dice are not random, you presume they are programed to let you loose? Or perhaps this is not the case, but the dice are just plain wrong, then keep in mind the dice are equally wrong for the other side. So no harm no foul i would say. And your statement that in the past 5 years they only "change" the dice once is untrue.
Other then that, the dice suck.. way too often. I had 3 players beat my 8 stack with their 4 without lossess. Sure, but if my game hinges on being able to win or him loose that one attack, well then i must be playing it wrong.

[MNDuke]

Nikola,
If the dice are not random, you presume they are programed to let you loose? Or perhaps this is not the case, but the dice are just plain wrong, then keep in mind the dice are equally wrong for the other side. So no harm no foul i would say. And your statement that in the past 5 years they only "change" the dice once is untrue.
Other then that, the dice suck.. way too often. I had 3 players beat my 8 stack with their 4 without lossess. Sure, but if my game hinges on being able to win or him loose that one attack, well then i must be playing it wrong.

No one has ever stated that the dice are not random. No one has ever said that they are programmed to make you lose. Please read what has been posted before you begin pushing the same old "the dice are random" talking points. What you are failing to realize is that when the other side is getting the equally wrong dice, its not always in the same game. So, it doesn't necessarily even out. Maybe over the whole spectrum it does, but when you break it down to a game by game basis, that is where the problem lies. You see ridiculous streaks happening at far too frequent of a rate and they ruin games. So what does it matter if it equals out if the game is already lost and decided by improbably streaky dice. As mentioned, like in a 1v1 game for instance. Once again, how do you play feudal wrong. Very it often it comes down to that 1 attack, and it sucks to see your 90 guys fail to a 40 stack or to see your 90 guys fall to a 40 stack only for your opponent to be left with say 16 left over. This shit happens far too often. Creates an unbalance in game play.

I'm not arguing for predictable dice. I want dice that behave in the NORMAL realm of possibility. As of now they go extreme far too often. As for solutions, I have seen a number of rational ideas mentioned in other dice bitch threads, but don't have any specific examples at this moment. I will have to track them down.

[nikola_milicki]

Nikola,
If the dice are not random, you presume they are programed to let you loose? Or perhaps this is not the case, but the dice are just plain wrong, then keep in mind the dice are equally wrong for the other side. So no harm no foul i would say. And your statement that in the past 5 years they only "change" the dice once is untrue.
Other then that, the dice suck.. way too often. I had 3 players beat my 8 stack with their 4 without losses. Sure, but if my game hinges on being able to win or him loose that one attack, well then i must be playing it wrong.

we had more dice program changes? didnt know that, my bad

I see many say that I shud take comfort in knowing the dice suck for other ppl too.. how can u guys even think this way?!? its insane to accept something that is broken only bcuz its broken for everybody..

4vs8 clean sucks even more then 10vs2 loss, these turns are not impossible and will continue to happen, and we will continue losing games over turns like these, especially in 1on1s.. and that doesnt bother me at all, Im mad about the fact that one can have a whole afternoon of these turns, days even..

[SirSebstar]

Suchs is possible. in fact it is even likely. Should we take the basis of this supposed randomness then over time it will even out.. in probability, but in a small game there will, by design, be great differences. After all there is an (aproximate) 33% double win and a 33% double loss. Just loose the first 2 turns, say 4 dicerolls and the game is nearly over. a 4 streak double loss will happen .. often..

Do i understand your point correctly when you say you find a system that allows a user to totally loose his first 2 turn dicerolls 10% of the time to be idiotic?

If thats the case, there are ways to reduce the influence of he dice, e.g. by eliminating the,. But with regard to the randomness of the dice, count on the dica abandoning you, and if you still manage to win the game, you rule.

Everything else i think is about equal opportunity, since the dice are unfair to all, they are unfair to you. I read you find that a wierd comment. To that i can only say the following: It's a good thing that life is not fair, because if it were, then that would mean that all the bad things that happen to us are because we actually deserve them. Therefore we should take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe

[MNDuke]

I see many say that I shud take comfort in knowing the dice suck for other ppl too.. how can u guys even think this way?!? its insane to accept something that is broken only bcuz its broken for everybody..

I believe that says it best. Why be complacent with something that sucks. Just because it sucks equally for everybody doesn't make it an acceptable solution.

[danryan]

I see two trains here; one going down the it's broken track, and one down the it's fine track. Just don't expect to ever meet because you're not going to.

[MNDuke]

The dice used to be governed to break up streaks like that if I'm not mistaken, but were changed to their current format because they weren't truly random before.

Why change this? Herein lies the biggest problem if you ask me.

[maasman]

The dice used to be governed to break up streaks like that if I'm not mistaken, but were changed to their current format because they weren't truly random before.

Why change this? Herein lies the biggest problem if you ask me.

I'm pretty sure this is BS here. They were truly random before, and they are now. The only thing that changed I believe is how numbers are given. Before, on every single roll 5 numbers were used and the extras were thrown away if not all 5 were needed. Now only the number needed are used. Also, I think the dice refresh more often now, but we're still getting numbers from the same site, and no, they were never governed to break up streaks before.

[MNDuke]

Thanks for clarifying. I guess you can't always trust what a mod says to be fact.

[natty dread]

The dice used to be governed to break up streaks like that if I'm not mistaken, but were changed to their current format because they weren't truly random before.

Why change this? Herein lies the biggest problem if you ask me.

I'm pretty sure this is BS here. They were truly random before, and they are now. The only thing that changed I believe is how numbers are given. Before, on every single roll 5 numbers were used and the extras were thrown away if not all 5 were needed. Now only the number needed are used. Also, I think the dice refresh more often now, but we're still getting numbers from the same site, and no, they were never governed to break up streaks before.

True.

The old dice worked like this:

A file of 50 000 random numbers from random.org was acquired. The file functioned as basically a stack: there was a pointer, and at each assault, 5 numbers were taken from the position of the pointer, and the pointer was moved forwards 5 numbers. If less than 5 numbers were needed, the extra were discarded. When the file was used up it rewinded back to the beginning. The file was updated sporadically, I'm not sure how often, perhaps once a month or something like that.

The current dice work like this:

A file of 50 000 random numbers from random.org is acquired. This file functions, basically, as an array. At each assault, a random location is chosen in the file, and as many numbers as are needed are read from that location. The file is updated to a new file every hour.

So, the only change here is that the new dice are more random, less predictable, more secure and less vulnerable for abuse or hacking.

People were complaining about the dice before the change and people are complaining now. Only, now that the people know that the dice were changed, they have a nice round target for their complaints.

Just because it sucks equally for everybody doesn't make it an acceptable solution.

It only "sucks" for those who have some expectations for the behavior of the dice. Those who accept the fact that you cannot predict a random occurence don't find the dice to "suck".

[Woodruff]

Ive had 5-6h games in rl and never ever, not even on the worst day, have I lost as much as here yesterday afternoon.

Let's examine that for a moment. A 5-6 hour game in real life is essentially equivalent to one single speed game on the old Classic map. And you think that should relate to how many dice rolls you have here on ConquerClub over an entire afternoon?

I see many say that I shud take comfort in knowing the dice suck for other ppl too.. how can u guys even think this way?!? its insane to accept something that is broken only bcuz its broken for everybody.

1. You ASSUME that the dice are "broken". I am not of the opinion that they are.
2. Assuming for the moment that the dice ARE "broken", they are at least still "fair". In my view, what I care about is that they are fair, so that over time strategy will still rise above it.

Thanks for clarifying. I guess you can't always trust what a mod says to be fact.

A Tournament Director doesn't really have much need to know the inner workings of the dice. Now, if a techie guy says something about the dice, then we should be able to feel comfortable that it's accurate.

People were complaining about the dice before the change and people are complaining now. Only, now that the people know that the dice were changed, they have a nice round target for their complaints.

I do think this is a lot of the problem. If the change had been made without any user knowledge, I don't believe there would be near the uproar over it.

Just because it sucks equally for everybody doesn't make it an acceptable solution.

It only "sucks" for those who have some expectations for the behavior of the dice. Those who accept the fact that you cannot predict a random occurence don't find the dice to "suck".

Exactly.

[MNDuke]

A file of 50 000 random numbers from random.org is acquired. This file functions, basically, as an array. At each assault, a random location is chosen in the file, and as many numbers as are needed are read from that location. The file is updated to a new file every hour.

However, if it is a string of 50,000 random numbers, what is the point of choosing a random location for each assault. Why not just go right down the line? There is no need to hop into random locations if the numbers you are pulling from are already random. It seems that by jumping into random locations, you are increasing your chances for streaky dice. By jumping locations you are in essence increasing the chance you can roll in streaks. Yes it is possible that you could if you were to go down the line you could hit a spot that is 66666 66666 or 11111 11111, but then those dice would be more likely to get dispersed between the attacker and defender vs dropping into a location that is 11166 then hopping to another location that is 23466 then to 43564. From my understanding, the jumping to a random location could be creating the streakiness in the dice. It would be randomly unlucky or lucky to hop from the right/wrong location. As to where if it were in one continuous string you would reduce the chance of hopping in one of these unlucky streaks.

[Baron Von PWN]

So glad all the rational conversationalists with something practical to say have chimed in. I'm pretty sure complacency isn't a good thing. Plus, its probably difficult for someone who only plays 4 games at a time to notice much about the dice. Trying playing 20, 30, 40 turns a day and there is noticeable streakiness to the dice. But hey, I would be willing to say the dice system is optimal for freemium play.

I was running 50 games a while back (down to a more reasonable 20 now) The dice seemed fine and acted as dice should.

TLDR. Dice are fine.

[JaneM]

Though the numbers are generated randomly, and a string of them grabbed randomly, it seems this method would lead to greater improbability by latching on to streaks.

I wouldn't pretend to have the slightest notion of programming such a thing, but is it possible to generate a single random number for each die which would approximate table play?

I also wonder if there's any way to correlate times of high usage with overall probability of the dice. To me, it seems like periods of high activity also favor the defender. And, there are certain days when all players in my games seem to have "unlucky" rolls. That is, I look at the game and see multiple players with one troop in multiple territories; parsing the game log, it appears they've all made a last-ditch effort to get a card.

[Pedronicus]

when my premium expires, I'm retiring - no point in logging in each day for more of the same bullshit. Adiós CC