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Which of the *slightly less than* 68,880 possibilities would

Postby Butters1919 on Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:20 pm

I play a lot of 12 player, standard escalating, no fog, no trench on Classic. Every player starts with 3 territories. Let's assume (hahahahahaha!) that they're distributed randomly.

42 x 41 x 40 = 68,880 possible starting drops.

Obviously the quality of players would influence your decision (don't drop next to a cook in Oz who may try for the continent and you get robbed of a territory). So, let's assume that all players are at "your" calibre and play with the same strategy.

Chicago, Istanbul and Bangkok is what I think would be my preferred drop. Bangkok because I've been screwed out of a "sweep for the win" because the obvious first (and only) target has a territory deep in Oz and I can't get there. Chicago and Istanbul for flexibility.

Thoughts?
Last edited by Butters1919 on Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Thorthoth on Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:33 pm

If a colonel must fear a cook then the whole concept of rank in CC is suspect...
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:42 pm

Butters1919 wrote:I play a lot of 12 player, standard escalating, no fog, no trench on Classic. Every player starts with 3 territories. Let's assume (hahahahahaha!) that they're distributed randomly.

42 x 41 x 40 = 68,880 possible starting drops.

Obviously the quality of players would influence your decision (don't drop next to a cook in Oz who may try for the continent and you get robbed of a territory). So, let's assume that all players are at "your" calibre and play with the same strategy.

Chicago, Istanbul and Bangkok is what I think would be my preferred drop. Bangkok because I've been screwed out of a "sweep for the win" because the obvious first (and only) target has a territory deep in Oz and I can't get there. Chicago and Istanbul for flexibility.

Thoughts?


Chicago, unquestionably, is the most desirable real estate in North America. If you can't have Chicago, Montreal and Lost Angels are not bad.

Istanbul is okay. I guess it's tough with only 3 terts. Cairo, Nairobi, Berlin, Dakar also good choices for the middle.

Bangkok is good. Hong Kong okay too. I also wouldn't mind Jakarta here, as long as you get to play before the cook.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Metsfanmax on Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:53 pm

Butters1919 wrote:42 x 41 x 40 = 68,880 possible starting drops.


A starting drop is independent of the order in which the territories were selected. Hence the number of possibilities is actually 11,480.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby mrswdk on Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:47 am

Jakarta, Perth and Port Morseby, then I can claim a bonus quickly and stack mad troops.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby iAmCaffeine on Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:48 am

Only idiots don't say Dubai.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Mr_Adams on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:47 am

I don't play these game, but if I did I'd probably guess Edmonton, Cairo, Bangkok. might be a good combo. Edmonton rather than Chicago because in a game that big territories with lots of borders seem like obvious places people would want to turn into communal card spots, Bangkok for the same reasons you cited, and Cairo because Europe seems like it'd be to high traffic in terms of people trying to make a kill run between the Americas and Asia if Anchorage-Magadan is busy.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby mrswdk on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:52 am

No way would Bangkok be a good one. The first thing the noob'll do after capturing Oceania is to capture Bangkok.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Keefie on Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:56 am

Agree with Caff, DUBAI.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Thorthoth on Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:44 pm

Step 1: Identify the optimal strategy.
Step 2: Understand that the identified strategy is not optimal due to its identifiablity.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby owenshooter on Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:27 pm

this thread should be locked for poor "MATHING." the black jesus is appalled...-Jésus noir
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby jfm10 on Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:46 pm

I have to agree with owen about the math.If the program selected you for the first tert then the number would be 42 but it now selects for remaining 11 players leaving 30 for the next number and then 18 for the last tert so it would become 42x30x18=22680
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Dukasaur on Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:41 pm

Dubai blows.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:44 pm

I'd like Cairo so I can visit the pyramids and participate in archaelogical digs. Reyjkavik will have my summer home when the heat gets too oppressive. Bogota probably has the cheapest cocaine.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby riskllama on Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:50 pm

cheapest AND best. I call Bogota.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Butters1919 on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:01 pm

riskllama wrote:cheapest AND best. I call Bogota.


I had not considered this factor. Bogota, Lima and Mexico City are my new favs. Build a drug empire, buy weapons, dominate world.

Cheapest I had was $20 a gram in Panama. Not necessarily the best, but the cheapest.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Mr_Adams on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:35 pm

mrswdk wrote:No way would Bangkok be a good one. The first thing the noob'll do after capturing Oceania is to capture Bangkok.



Highly unlikely noob gets Australia, plus the scenario says there are no noobs in the game.
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Butters1919 on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:47 pm

Mr_Adams wrote:
mrswdk wrote:No way would Bangkok be a good one. The first thing the noob'll do after capturing Oceania is to capture Bangkok.



Highly unlikely noob gets Australia, plus the scenario says there are no noobs in the game.


Correct. I was trying to nullify that aspect. I can't count how many games have been compromised in round one because a "noob" hits a stack or goes for a continent without it making sense.

I've dropped 3 in Oz on a couple of occasions and obviously taken the bonus. Not once has that translated to a win (in the game setting I've outlined).
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Butters1919 on Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:48 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
Butters1919 wrote:42 x 41 x 40 = 68,880 possible starting drops.


A starting drop is independent of the order in which the territories were selected. Hence the number of possibilities is actually 11,480.


I realized that later on after posting. Thanks for the correction!
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Re: Which of the 68,880 possibilities would you prefer?

Postby Thorthoth on Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:02 pm

Ahh yes, the supreme strategic importance of Yakutsk. How few truly understand your deep Siberian secrets...
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