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Re: not possible

Postby patrickaa317 on Mon May 14, 2012 10:13 pm

kylegraves1 wrote:i busted out all my board games and rolled 40 dice at a time ten times and the average roll was 3.49

i also rolled dice 1 at a time 100 times i never had a number repeat more than 3 times in a row (average here was 3.5)

i wish cc was like this :D


Roll three dice 100 times. Roll 2 dice 100 times; compare the odds for attacker/defender assuming max dice.
taking a break from cc, will be back sometime in the future.
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Re: not possible

Postby redhawk92 on Mon May 14, 2012 10:19 pm

patrickaa317 wrote:
kylegraves1 wrote:i busted out all my board games and rolled 40 dice at a time ten times and the average roll was 3.49

i also rolled dice 1 at a time 100 times i never had a number repeat more than 3 times in a row (average here was 3.5)

i wish cc was like this :D


Roll three dice 100 times. Roll 2 dice 100 times; compare the odds for attacker/defender assuming max dice.


i will tomorrow and ill post the results
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Re: not possible

Postby jgordon1111 on Mon May 14, 2012 10:44 pm

kylegraves1 wrote:can some one run the probabilities of me attacking 33 0n 33 and my opponent having 29 left?

all im saying is the dice here stick just like in the old days



I was in a game about a month ago dude attacked me with 27 to my 55 and he won,and had 18 left I went wild. First off who in their right freaking mind attacks with those numbers?

Now I laugh about it,for a week I didnt though. Cussed CC dice,every game,every turn I took. Daring the dice to screw me over again. Then a short lived epiphany, the game dont give a crap about how mad you are or how much you threaten it.

Short lived because I am cussing them again. ;)
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Re: not possible

Postby trinicardinal on Tue May 15, 2012 8:11 am

HighlanderAttack wrote:
Roussallier wrote:I once lost 0-24 straight in a real game of Risk (boardgame) without the opponent having any casualties. Shows that really bad dice are possible even if you tossed them by hand.


Honestly that is good to hear.

I know we all forget about all the normal rolls too, but the frequency of the super bad or super good rolls just seems so dramatic. That is the main issue I think most players have. I just can't imagine a 10v1 ever failing but if I saw it in real life it may change the way I think about CC dice.


its happened to me often enough in real life.... There are enough times that I've lost way more than the defender in rl due to lousy rolling... the thing a lot of people don't get is that because you lost 10 straight men does not mean that the defender rolled all 6's all the way.... it means that they just got dice that were as good or better than yours

so for example

Attack 1
attacker rolls 4,4,6
defender rolls, 6,4

Attack 2
A: 5,3,1
D: 3,6

Attack 3
A:1,4,2
D:4,2

Attack 4
A: 3,2,1
D: 3,4

Attack 5
A: 1,6,2
D: 6,5

If you look at those rolls they are pretty balanced but you've lost 10 armies.... yet your dice are balanced.... lousy overall but balanced
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Re: not possible

Postby natty dread on Tue May 15, 2012 8:15 am

Agent 86 wrote:Well find another dice randomer..the one that is in use is broken. WWW. RANDOM.ORG is not random..it's just streaky and played over and over again. Depends when you log in and take your turns. Random noise generator my arse :lol: :lol:


*cough*bullshit*cough*


kylegraves1 wrote:i really think everyone on cc would like to see an improved dice system


I really think most people on CC don't give a shit.

How exactly would you "improve" it anyway... make it less random?

Most people who complain about the dice seem to think there has to be something "wrong" with the dice when they get an event they consider "too unlikely to ever happen"... Well, there's no such thing as "too unlikely". Unlikely shit happens all the time. For example, there's about 7 billion people on this planet. The odds of any 2 people among those meeting and making a baby are 1 in 7 billion ^2. Those are the odds that you were born. But it presupposes that your parents were born. So you have to also multiply them by the odds for each of your parents being born. And so on and so on backwards in time... eventually, the odds of you existing on this planet are so fucking amazingly small, that it's a damn miracle any of us even exist here. Yet, here we are, talking shit on the internet.

Another thing to remember about probability is that it's not infallible. It only says what is most likely to happen, it's not a guarantee that it will happen - like if you have 100 coin tosses, each of them hass a 50% chance of being heads - but that doesn't guarantee that exactly 50 of the tosses will be heads. They can just as well all be heads, which is again unlikely - but it could happen. If you have an infinite series of coin tosses, it is practically guaranteed that somewhere in that series is a streak of 100 same tosses.

So yeah, whenever someone posts some stupid crap like "I just lost 100 to 1, this can't be random!" I roll my eyes because that's exactly what it is, random. It's like the exact opposite of the truth - if the dice weren't random, then we'd never get any unlikely events, the results would be predictable, and we could be sure that when we attack x v. y we'd be left with at least z troops. But since random is inherently unpredictable, I don't really get the logic of "something unlikely just happened, therefore NOT RANDOM!!!111"

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: not possible

Postby Butters1919 on Tue May 15, 2012 8:40 am

natty dread wrote:For example, there's about 7 billion people on this planet. The odds of any 2 people among those meeting and making a baby are 1 in 7 billion ^2. Those are the odds that you were born. But it presupposes that your parents were born. So you have to also multiply them by the odds for each of your parents being born. And so on and so on backwards in time... eventually, the odds of you existing on this planet are so fucking amazingly small, that it's a damn miracle any of us even exist here. Yet, here we are, talking shit on the internet.


Add to those odds the fact that every time a man ejaculates there are between 20 to 100 million sperm cells. Of which only one combines with the egg to make "you".
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Re: not possible

Postby AndyDufresne on Tue May 15, 2012 9:11 am

We could always switch over to Monkey Dice, I hear that they are more random.

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Re: not possible

Postby Ace Rimmer on Tue May 15, 2012 9:49 am

Butters1919 wrote:
natty dread wrote:For example, there's about 7 billion people on this planet. The odds of any 2 people among those meeting and making a baby are 1 in 7 billion ^2. Those are the odds that you were born. But it presupposes that your parents were born. So you have to also multiply them by the odds for each of your parents being born. And so on and so on backwards in time... eventually, the odds of you existing on this planet are so fucking amazingly small, that it's a damn miracle any of us even exist here. Yet, here we are, talking shit on the internet.


Add to those odds the fact that every time a man ejaculates there are between 20 to 100 million sperm cells. Of which only one combines with the egg to make "you".


Not every time, there are surgeries out there to take care of that.

-snipsnap
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Re: not possible

Postby demonfork on Thu May 17, 2012 10:25 pm

Roussallier wrote:I once lost 0-24 straight in a real game of Risk (boardgame) without the opponent having any casualties. Shows that really bad dice are possible even if you tossed them by hand.


I don't believe you.
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Re: not possible

Postby AAFitz on Thu May 17, 2012 11:22 pm

HighlanderAttack wrote:
rdsrds2120 wrote:
HighlanderAttack wrote:
Roussallier wrote:I once lost 0-24 straight in a real game of Risk (boardgame) without the opponent having any casualties. Shows that really bad dice are possible even if you tossed them by hand.


Honestly that is good to hear.

I know we all forget about all the normal rolls too, but the frequency of the super bad or super good rolls just seems so dramatic. That is the main issue I think most players have. I just can't imagine a 10v1 ever failing but if I saw it in real life it may change the way I think about CC dice.


They're not just any more/less frequent, but we have 1000's of players rolling with huge numbers due to the games being easier to build than irl, so while they may pop-up more often, the ratio of that vs the people playing is normal.

-rd



I went from 150 active down to ten--I still feel I see way too many unrealistic rolls. Like I said it may be from the fact most people including me do not pay attention to the amount of normal rolls that when the crazy rolls come it is shocking. The shock factor just seems to happen way too often for me to not think there is something wrong.


with 150 active games, not expecting to see unrealistic looking roles, is ridiculously unrealistic.
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