probability of success

[timlamb]

well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go

[Kugelblitz22]

Holy shit!

This is a whole new paradigm!

All hail timlamb!

[skgs2006]

i knew being a acturial technician was not a complete waste of time

[Aegnor]

well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go

Oh no my friend, you are talking about actual math here. When you play Conquerclub you enter the realm of CC Math which means:

3 against 1 (When you just HAVE TO WIN) --> 80% for your opponent to roll a 6. 98% you are going to pull out 36-46 hairs out of your head.


Now that's more like it.

[Evil Semp]

Yes Timlamb you have to go back to school to learn CC math. It is a whole new world here.

[gerry22]

well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go

Oh no my friend, you are talking about actual math here. When you play Conquerclub you enter the realm of CC Math which means:

3 against 1 (When you just HAVE TO WIN) --> 80% for your opponent to roll a 6. 98% you are going to pull out 36-46 hairs out of your head.


Now that's more like it.

yep. f*** all assumptions. When they tell you the dice are random, it's complete B*****!!!!! They anything but, remember what said when you as Aegnor said £pull the hairs from head".

[Cirus]

Yeah i agree these dice cannot be calculated, I'm almost ceratin at times winning a game does not depend on ability/stratedgy it depends on dice!!!!! seems some people get a better rub of the green than others!

[Dariune]

Yeah i agree these dice cannot be calculated, I'm almost ceratin at times winning a game does not depend on ability/stratedgy it depends on dice!!!!! seems some people get a better rub of the green than others!

I think the dice can be harshly unfair and all that but i expect if you look at a persons overall dice that they will be roughly equal to yours. I doubt very much if the dice favour people to a large extent.

Feels like it sometimes though

[Cirus]

yeah i do totally agree.

But take this for example - i'm playing like 4 or 5 doubles games against the same players, i feel i have had strong stratedgy etc but it seems when i really need to beat there defence almost always with more attcakers their defenders win. Its been like that acrosss most of these matchs and then when they attack i get my ass kicked. Either all my bad rolls come at once or me and my partner are crap players!!

Frustrating

[Dariune]

If it makes you feel any better i just had eight turns on eight games and didnt get a single win attack (i take two off of them) Those turns have ruined 5 out of the 8 games

[sully800]

well guess I should make my irrelevant and nerdy contribution to the community.

I have worked out (and could be wrong) the probability of success when attacking an opponent:


No. Att V No.Def
3 against 1 --> 65% chance of winning
2 against 1 -->57%
1 against 1 --> 42%
1 against 2 --> 25%

3 against 2 (Both win) --> 22%
3 against 2 (win none) --> 15% (although i reckon it is about 80% for me)
3 against 2 (win first) --> 47%
3 against 2 (win second) --> 60%

well, there you go

Here's an easier table



Your numbers against one defending dice were good but everything against 2 defending dice seems to be wrong.

[Dariune]

Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both

[Wisse]

Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both

or he just uses a calculator

[Dariune]

Either your a genius or you have far too much time on your hands and need a woman in your life ..... or possibly both

or he just uses a calculator

Exactly! a genius