by detlef on Tue Feb 26, 2008 6:14 pm
I understand the theory behind not attacking off the bat and I understand both reasons why people do it. However, I think both lines of reasoning are flawed for the following reasons:
#1)Waiting to take a card because you want to be last in line to cash-in so you get 10-12 rather than 4-6 for your first set.
Well, that's all fine and dandy, but what about the end game, where it's between you and another player and the first person to make a set, you might wish you had that card you didn't bother taking early on. Hell, being the first to be able to make a set the second time through, when they're worth around 20 may allow you to run the table.
#2)Not wanting to lose armies in an attack. Your odds of rolling bad dice doesn't decrease if you're attacking 9v3 rather than 6v3. So, if you deploy, attack, lose two, stop, then drop 3 more on that same spot next turn and repeat, you're no worse off than if you didn't attack the first time, started at 9v3 and lost the first two.
The simple fact is, odds favor the attacker. Now, if you don't go first and have the good fortune of attacking a country that somebody fortified out of (ie: a one army country), all the better. But, considering that escalating is all about cards, I think dogmatically avoiding them in the early rounds is folly.
I do agree that, in every game, one needs to weigh the advantages of getting a card. If your only attacks are against well stocked places and sets are not worth much yet, it may not be worth it. Especially if you're somewhat weak. Saving the guys makes you harder to take out and having one less card makes you less attractive. However, I'm often amazed at the degree to which some people avoid cards in this format.