New statistic: Expected number of wins

by **GenuineEarlGrey** on Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:40 pm

Concise description:

We have the percentage of wins for each player on their home page.
Add their expected number of wins.

Specifics:

Percentage of wins: number wins / number completed games.
Expected wins: number of wins / Total number of players in complete games.

This will improve the following aspects of the site:

Gives a better summary of players.
Many people like stats, this would be a more useful one.

Example:
Player 1 has played 100 games and won 30 but these are all 1 v 1 games.
Player 2 has played 200 games and won 40 but these are all multi player games, say 8 players.

Player 1 has won 30% of games but was expected to win 50%
[expected wins is 1/2 + 1/2..... = 100 / 2*100 = 50%]

Player 2 has won 20% of games but was expected to only 12.5%
[expected wins is 1/8 + 1/8 ..... = 200 / 8*200 = 12.5%]

Note
The statistics would only need running totals to caculate it.
Extension
If you want to beef this up you could calculate expected number of points BUT I don't think you could do this reterospectivly.

EG

by **Androidz** on Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:49 pm

I think the Map rank covers this. Add On. Check Plugins and Add ons tread.

by **King Dain II** on Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:25 am

Concise description:

A slightly complicated win ratio next to the win percentage we have now

Specifics:

Here is how it works: (2 x Win%In2PlayerGames + 3 x Win%In3PlayerGames + 4 x Win%In4playerGames...) / 8
Run through: The odds of winning a 2 player game is 50%, while an 8 player is 12.5%. Currently these two count the same towards the overall win percentage when really a player that plays mostly 8 player games will have a lower win rate than someone like me who plays 2 player games. In this new way of calculating the win rate, this is evened out by multiplying the number of players by the win % in those types of games.
An absolutely average win rate would come out as 1.00 if you win 50% of 2 player, 33% of 3, 25% of 4... A person who has an overal of 2, wins twice as many games as he should according to the statistic: 8 player games with 25% won would be a 2 for that category, since you ae only supposed to win 12.5%, but it will average out with the other win percentages in games with different #s of players
Elongated formula: (2 x Win%InAll2PlayerGamesPlayed + 3 x Win%InAll3PlayerGamesPlayed + 4 x Win%InAll4PlayerGamesPlayed...) / 8 = an adjusted win ratio that accurately shows your win rate compared to the probable win rate.

This will improve the following aspects of the site:

Win % is more useful seeing as it does not vary depending on your preferred number of players in a game.
People who play 8 player are recognized as being able to win more games than average instead of being looked down upon for really low win %s. (I have seen this happen plenty of times in the General Discussion Forum)

The thing I still need to figure out (posted this rather quickly), is that if you have only played one or two x-player games, then that will count as much to the overall as if you played 100.