Conquer Club

I know it's been discussed multiple times regarding the dice and their randomness. Let's shift a bit and talk about the randomness of the cards.

A couple of things that I would like to point out:
- fact: you can get the same card (country) in different colors in one game
- observation: I tend to get mixed and red sets the most often, followed by green sets, and I rarely get the blue sets.
- observation: There have been games that were pretty much decided by the cards because one player kept trading mixed sets by the time he/she got 3, and another player had to wait to 5 cards to trade for red sets (obviously flat-rate games only).


Let's the discussion (flaming) begin

I actually get mixed quite a bit, but next would probably be blue. I think maybe the cards aren't random and might be weighed towards suckier players like me?

I read somewhere that the cards, color and all, are completely random. You won't get a card if someone else currently owns it, but if it is unowned you can randomly get it, with a randomly chosen color. It might even happen that you trade in a card as part of a set at the beginning of your turn, and the card you get at the end of your turn can be the same country but a different color.

I've tended to noticed that underdog, or weaker players tends to get the better cards and dice more often. At least that is the case for me. When I am stronger, I get a lot green and red sets. Maybe its just my bad luck, who knows? But, it definitely happens on a regular basis.

The cards are definitely random.

I've had games where 6 times in a row everyone cashed in mixed sets on 3 cards.

I've had games where I had 4 reds, and took out an opponent who had 4 reds. The next turn I took out an opponent with 4 reds and a green. Lots of color there !!! (Actually the remaining player, then cashed a blue set).

I've had games where I was the underdog and kept getting green or red sets, whilst the leader got blue or mixed (with terr bonuses - as they should with more terrs).

I've had games where I was the underdog and kept getting mixed sets, whilst the leader go red or green (some terr bonuses).

I've had games where I was the leader and kept getting mixed sets.

I've had several games where I've gotten the same terr (same/diff color) two turns in a row [or at least gotten 1 back right after cashing].

I've even had a game where I got the SAME terr 3 turns in a row (blue twice, green once). I got terr x, I cashed in, and I ended my turn; I got terr x, I eliminated an opponent, I cashed in, and I ended my turn; I got terr x.

Yada yada yada ...

It's all random in the end.

The cards are completely random, just like the dice. However, the human brain functions better when it can find patterns and categorize data. The result is, you will see patterns where there are none because your brain is trying very hard to find patterns.

If you really do think the cards are not random, start collecting data and eventually you should be able to identify the pattern, write it down and prove it is correct through prediction. Once you can do that, report the pattern you found to lack in a PM.

Just so you know, you can have randomness and different probabilities for each outcome at the same time, they all just have to add up to 1.

Though in this case, I'm assuming the probabilities of getting a red/green/blue card are the same.